NBA Player Props: Jalen Williams Thriving in Playmaking Role (March 16)

It’s another Thursday slate in which sportsbooks have set lines perfectly, as not much is popping in NBA Bet Pro at the moment. Only one prop is even getting close to 10% EV, and only a small handful of others have a positive ROI at all. Still, that just makes subscribing to NBA Bet Pro all the more important. Let’s take a look at the top 3 NBA players props on BetMGM for Thursday, March 16.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | March 16

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 5.5 Rebounds (-110)

This is the only prop of the top 3 that has a win expectancy over 50%, but it is also the only one that does not come at plus money. As such, its EV is still only 5% — though relative to the rest of this slate, that is basically a home run.

Gilgeous-Alexander is only averaging 4.8 rebounds per game this year, and despite a few hits on the over as of late, his matchup with Toronto is not a strong one for boosting his rebounding numbers. The Raptors rank 14th in rebound rate this season, and they also present a significant pace down for the Thunder. As such, NBA Bet Pro projects Gilgeous-Alexander for 4.9 rebounds, giving the under on 5.5 a 55% expected win rate.

2. O.G. Anunoby Under 1.5 Assists (+150)

In that same matchup, Anunoby’s assists under is an extremely risky but long-term rewarding player prop. It is only getting a 42% win expectancy from Stokastic, the second lowest of any +EV bet on the slate, and Anunoby is projecting slightly over at 1.7 assists. However, the +150 odds make this a solid bet at 6% ROI, as long term it will present a nice payout.

Anunoby has gone over 1.5 assists in over half of his game this season, but he was limited to one or zero assists in three of his last four. Oklahoma City is a decent defense in terms of limiting opponent assists, allowing the 13th fewest, so unless the Thunder’s pace drives more chances Anunoby’s way, NBA Bet Pro is all over the under here.

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1. Jalen Williams Over 3.5 Assists (+120)

Apparently this Thunder-Raptors game is the only one for betting NBA player props. Williams is facing the same pace down that Gilgeous-Alexander is, only Williams recent trends may be able to overcome that. He is only averaging 3.2 assists per game on the season and has hit the under in two of the last three, but he had 10 assists in between those under and was over 3.5 in each of the six games prior (seven of the last nine in total). The Raptors also allow the sixth-most assists per game, and Williams went for 11 in his first matchup with Toronto this season.

While this bet has just a 49% expected win rate, the plus money makes it easily the highest-EV bet of the night, earning 8% ROI from NBA Bet Pro.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.