The NFL DFS field is getting sharper every year. Projections get tighter and models more robust, which makes game theory that much more important. The two key elements of game theory in DFS are roster construction and ownership. Let’s take a look at Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections to see who the field is playing the most at each position for Week 4’s main NFL DFS slate at DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Ownership Report: DraftKings NFL DFS Main Slate Week 4
Quarterback DFS Ownership
Two quarterbacks are getting looked at heavily by NFL DFS players this week. Josh Allen ($8,200) and Jalen Hurts ($8,000) project for 8.8% and 8.7% ownership, respectively. Their ownership rates are significantly higher than the rest of the field, but it makes sense given the explosive ceiling that both those quarterbacks possess. Allen and Hurts can rack up fantasy points in both the pass and the run. Allen gets an exciting matchup with the Miami Dolphins who play at a fast pace and should keep the game close. Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles get a divisional matchup with the sneaky Washington Commanders.
Ownership is currently projecting to be somewhat flat after Allen and Hurts. Russell Wilson ($5,800) is expected to be the third highest owned signal caller at 7.1%. He’s followed by Kenny Pickett ($5,100) at 6.8% and Justin Fields ($6,600) at 6.6%. This trio may not hold a candle to Allen and Hurts, but they all have solid point-per-dollar value. If they can manage to put up a few touchdowns through the air– or on the ground in Fields’ case– they have a good shot to be in winning GPP lineups on DraftKings.
Running Back DFS Ownership
The ownership is spread out at QB but there is some clear chalk emerging at the running back spot. Tony Pollard ($7,800) and Kyren Williams ($6,000) have pretty different projections and price points, but they lead the way in terms of ownership. Both backs are expected grab 18.3% on Sunday’s NFL DFS Main Slate. Williams burst onto the scene in Week 2 when it was announced that the Rams were parting ways with Cam Akers ten minutes before lock. He quickly became one of the best point-per-dollar plays, but the late news meant that Williams didn’t find his way into many NFL DFS lineups. Things have changed, and he now paces the field in terms of ownership.
Two spend down options and an elite runner round out the top five in ownership at the position. Javonte Williams Javonte Williams ($5,500) projects for 16.1% ownership, followed by Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) at 16.1% and Miles Sanders ($5,800) at 15.9%. It was hard to imagine the sort of usage that Christian McCaffrey is getting this year with the San Francisco 49ers. He has always been one of the most utilized backs in the NFL, but his role has somehow gotten even larger in 2023. Even at his $9.2k price tag the field is noticing and continues to buy-in on CMC. Williams and Sanders haven’t busted loose yet, but they are also being used heavily by their teams and have good matchups in Week 4. That’s especially true for Williams and the Denver Broncos who take on the struggling Chicago Bears.
Wide Receiver DFS Ownership
The Las Vegas Raiders threw the ball 44 times last week, with the majority of their passes going to two players. Davante Adams ($8,000) had a monster game, grabbing thirteen balls for 172 yards and two touchdowns. Jakobi Meyers ($5,500) had seven catches for 85 yards. Needless to say, the Raiders’ pass catching duo is getting a ton of attention by the field in Week 4 on DraftKings. Adams is projecting to be the highest owned wide receiver at 20.4%, while Meyers is coming it at 16.1% ownership.
Sandwiched between Adams and Meyers is Keenan Allen ($7,900). The Los Angeles Chargers wideout had one of the most exciting performances in Week 3, racking up eighteen catches and 215 yards. He chipped in a touchdown throw, as well. The recipient of Allen’s passing TD was Mike Williams, who is out with an injury. That could mean even more targets for Allen, which is hard to imagine. The field is seeing it that way though, with Allen currently garnering 17.6% ownership. The NFL DFS ownership at receiver for Week 4 is rounded out by Ja’Marr Chase ($7.800) at 15.2% and Tyreek Hill ($9,200) at 14.6%.
Tight End DFS Ownership
NFL DFS are still waiting for Pat Freiermuth ($3,400) to breakout. There’s signs of progress. The Steelers’ tight end was quiet in the season’s first two weeks, but was able to find the end zone in Week 3 in their win over the Las Vegas Raiders. He ended up with just three catches, but that touchdown is a great sign. Most importantly, Freiermuth has a great tracker and a great price point at $3.4k. That’s motivating the field to get to Freiermuth at a 12.9% rate. He’s the highest owned tight end on Week 4’s NFL DFS slate and it’s not even close.
The next highest owned tight end is expected to be Zach Ertz ($3,200) at 9%. The Arizona Cardinals continue to fight despite being underdogs in every game. Ertz’s price makes sense, especially on a team with a bit of momentum after taking out the Dallas Cowboys. The tight end ownership flattens out after Ertz. Dalton Schultz ($3,200) and Chig Okonkwo ($3,100) are at 7.3% and 7.2% ownership, respectively. Dallas Goedert ($4,400) checks in at 6.7%.Â
Defense DFS Ownership
NFL DFS players rarely like to pay up at defense, but that isn’t stopping them this week. The Eagles ($4,100) top the slate in ownership at 9.8%. Ten percent ownership may seem like a lot for an NFL defense, but there’s a lot to like about this matchup with the Commanders. If you can find the salary to spend-down elsewhere, its worth taking a flyer on the Eagles.
The next highest owned defense on this slate is another spend-up. The Cowboys ($4,000) defense is checking in at 6.8% ownership on DraftKings.. From there, the ownership flattens, with several teams in the 5% ownership range. The next three on the board after the Cowboys are the Buccaneers ($3,300) at 5.6%, the Browns ($2,800) 5.5% at and the Bills ($2,700) at 5.3%.
