In this article, we will take a journey through the NFL Sims process. I’ll be sharing my initial reactions and thoughts as we dive into the world of NFL DFS Week 11 lineup building on DraftKings with the help of our trusty Contest Simulations Tool, which helped a Stokastic subscriber take home a DraftKings Millionaire Maker win in Week 10.
— ShortGamerTV (@ShortGamerTV) November 13, 2023
Keep in mind that my perspectives may evolve as the weekend progresses, but this article offers a unique peek into how I interpret the results in the Sims, a valuable skill for your DFS journey.
NFL DFS Week 11 – DraftKings NFL Sims Preview
Before we get into the Week 11 NFL DFS analysis, here is a short breakdown of each of the components of the Stokastic NFL Sims tool.
Contest Generator: An industry first! Create a pool of lineups that reflects projected ownership for a given slate. See which players, lineups, and stacks are likely to comprise the field (available only for NFL & NBA).
Pre-Contest Simulator: Take into account both what is happening on the field and with competing lineups. Simulations pit lineups against each and derive simulated profitability for each, resulting in a superior ranking methodology to any other tool.
Post-Contest Simulator: Stop tweaking your process based on yesterday’s results–a sample size of one is meaningless. Instead, leverage simulations to review ROI for DraftKings contests at the individual lineup, user and player level.
Ownership Analysis: Starting with the Week 11 Contest Pool
When starting up the NFL DFS Sims process, we start by building a contest pool with our Contest Generator to see who the chalkiest plays of the week are.
This week there is one name that stands above the rest plus two others that are pretty high and another two that we should think closely about.
Not surprisingly after the most recent weeks, the Texans stand out above all else with three of their players in the top five.
The player that stands out against the rest is Devin Singletary. Our historical ownership is showing only 9% right now, but I think that is a timing difference related to the status of Dameon Pierce. It appears that Pierce is slated to miss another week and once the industry catches on he will pop up. We saw last week that without Pierce the Texans were willing to rely heavily on Singletary to the tune of 30 rushing attempts in a back-and-forth game that they needed to win.
Even at elevated ownership, Singletary seems like good chalk. I do worry that we might see Singletary continue to rise in ownership over the weekend, so watch out for that, but I wouldn’t start to get too concerned until it starts to reach 40%+.
The next two are both wide receivers in attractive spots. Tank Dell has come into his own the last two weeks with targets of 11 and 14 and touchdowns in both games. Coming off these two big games and being an exciting rookie along with his exciting rookie quarterback I wouldn’t be surprised to see his ownership go a notch or two higher than what we are expecting. In the Contest Generator, I think I will give his ownership a boost or two. At $5,900 he looks like okay chalk, but as that ownership starts to rise I am going to start to get worried.
Tyreek Hill is a player that we’ve projected at pretty decent chalk all year and I’ve normally been on him even more than his ownership, so I am going in with the assumption that he is pretty good chalk once again. That may change if I need extra salary in my lineups, but any time I can fit the best wide receiver in the league into my lineups I am more than happy to do so.
We round out our chalkiest plays with two tight ends, Dalton Schultz and Evan Engram. In general, I am not a fan of the chalky tight ends not named Travis Kelce, but a lot of the tight ends get chalky mainly because they are just the play of the week that is cheap and helps you get other players into your lineups. This isn’t the case with either Schultz or Engram, so we don’t have that to worry about.
I am starting to get concerned with all the Texans chalk though. A lineup with Schultz, Singletary, Dell, and Stroud, or even three of them is going to be pretty chalky. Of the four, I like Schultz the least so he may end up being the odd man out for me, maybe in favor of a pivot to Dalton Kincaid. Engram looks like the better overall chalk piece.
Stacks: Finding the Winning DraftKings NFL DFS Combos
Not surprisingly given all the chalk above, the Texans are the stack that the Sims prefer as of Friday, but it’s pretty close.
C.J. Stroud followed up his slate-winning week with another 356-yard performance that has a lot of people excited about this rookie. The problem I see with Stroud is all the chalk surrounding him that we just talked about.
I will have some Stroud lineups, but you have to be very careful as you are building your Texans stacks or you aren’t going to be able to get different enough from the rest of the field. I don’t like the idea of playing all 3 of those chalky players together in a game stack unless someone’s ownership comes down or I can find several contrarian players to round out the lineup.
It sounds a little odd to say you are playing contrarian playing the highest-owned player on the slate, but playing Singletary on his own without the rest of the Texans could be attractive as well. You can eliminate a lot of the Texans ownership if Singletary blows up or if he is the only one who does okay in a disappointing game overall.
Trevor Lawrence and Geno Smith both look like solid stacks that the Week 11 NFL Sims like. Lawrence hasn’t had a blow-up game yet this year but has been close several times and Engram makes a good, although chalky stack. Lawrence can also be paired with a high-upside Calvin Ridley at reasonable ownership and makes a good double stack.
Smith also makes a lot of sense as always with explosive playmakers in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Lockett is questionable and this is a late game. If his status is unknown going into Sunday people are likely to shy away from him, making him an attractive contrarian stack partner. I will probably give him a few boosts down in the contest generation step if this comes to fruition, making him quite attractive.
Additionally, I think it makes sense to give Metcalf and Jaxon Smith–Njigba projection increases in this situation as well, as they would have more upside if he ends up sitting. In general, most players will be worried about this situation, and that’s the perfect time to pounce.
If Lockett gets ruled out Saturday, we could see all the Seahawks players become the major chalk pieces like last week’s Bengals. The Bengals weren’t slate breakers, but they were the type of lineup that put you in a good spot. I think the Seahawks would be in a similarly good spot. You will just need to be careful with the other pieces of your lineup so you don’t get too chalky.
Tying it All Together: A Winning NFL DFS Week 11 Lineup Build
In conclusion, my eighth-best lineup embodies a great strategy by pulling all these pieces together.
(Editor’s Note: Michael Wilson was ruled out after this article was written)
We start with Geno Smith again this week, an average-owned quarterback that the Sims likes. This time I am pairing him with Tyler Lockett, who I am assuming in this case is still questionable going into late Sunday.
Next, we add in Devin Singletary who looks like the biggest smash play of the week at this time. But we don’t use just Singletary and we pair him with Dalton Schultz, which provides plenty of leverage against a chalky Dell eruption spot. We will need Smith to beat Stroud in this case, but Schultz can pay off well even with Stroud not breaking the slate. You could also easily pivot to Dalton Kincaid and utilize Singletary as leverage against all the rest of the Texans.
I also like how this lineup plays Calvin Ridley, which sort of protects our Schultz against Engram. We also load up on a great play in Christian McCaffrey. We didn’t talk about him earlier, but Brock Purdy is a major chalk piece, and while McCaffrey can catch a lot of balls, it will be tough for Purdy to have a true ceiling game if McCaffrey also has one.
James Conner looks good too, and finishing up with the Steelers against the Browns without Deshaun Watson sounds pretty appealing!
This format should provide insights into how I approach the DFS Sims when crafting lineups. Hopefully, this helps to provide some more information on how I think through the tool each week.
Let me know if you have any additional ideas going forward! Best of luck on your NFL DFS Week 11 adventures.