NFL Monday Night Football DFS Picks: Vikings at Bears (Sept. 8)

Tonight if the first official installment of Monday Night Football, and with the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Vikings-Bears Week 1 Monday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Soldier Field in Chicago.

NFL Monday Night Football Week 1 DFS Picks: Vikings-Bears

Big changes are afoot with both of these storied franchises as Minnesota is turning to rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed all of last season with a knee injury. Chicago, of course, has a new head coach in Ben Johnson, who earned the gig after three seasons as the offensive coordinator in Detroit. Changes don’t get much bigger than this, then there are some injury concerns, making for a murky puzzle.

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NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1: Justin Jefferson

Jefferson earned Pro Bowl honors in his four healthy seasons, along with two First-Team and two Second-Team All-Pro designations. The superstar has the highest salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with the only slight concern being a left hamstring issue that kept Jefferson under wraps for most of training camp. He is not on the injury report for tonight’s game, and the reporting was pretty consistent in saying it was mild and precautionary, for what that’s worth.

Looking at the free OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Jefferson currently has -113 odds on his over 79.5 receiving yards prop, and he is +120 for over 6.5 receptions.

Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three games of the season, though the team proactively brought back fan favorite Adam Thielen to help bridge the gap. Now in his age-35 season, Thielen is returning to the team that drafted him after serving as a safety valve option for Bryce Young in Carolina. This should help J.J. McCarthy as he makes his debut under the bright lights of Monday Night Football.

Jalen Nailor was dealing with a hand issue, though he was a full participant in practice this week. While he did start seven games in his third season, he is barely above replacement level, and once Addison returns, he will be the fourth option while Thielen is ambulatory.

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Minnesota Vikings Positional Preview

Quarterback | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

McCarthy actually is in a mostly favorable situation for a rookie quarterback, being able to slot into one of the best offenses in the league. In addition to a legendary pass catcher, the Vikings boast one of the best offensive lines in the game and two experienced running backs, along with a top-5 tight end.

This is all crucial as it allows McCarthy to be a game manager in primetime on the road for his first start. It is hard to see much upside over his 234.3 projected passing yards. In college, he was not much of a runner, totaling 632 yards across 40 games with 10 touchdowns. Sacks do count as rushing attempts, but that still is not much to lean into. Rookies and inexperienced quarterbacks tend to pull the ball down and run, but with this supporting cast and a savvy head coach, the goal will be to keep McCarthy out of those scenarios.

Running Back | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

The Vikings brought in Jordan Mason this spring, sending a fifth-round selection to San Francisco in the deal and exchanging sixth-round picks as well. Last year when he had the opportunity to fill in for Christian McCaffrey, Mason proved to be a solid downhill runner. Of course, he has not contributed much as a receiver, nor was that a skill he displayed in his four seasons with Georgia Tech (25 receptions, 202 yards and one touchdown in 43 games).

Veteran Aaron Jones popped off for 1,138 rushing yards in his age-30 season, with his 408 receiving yards the most since 2019, when he also led the league with 16 rushing touchdowns and made his lone Pro Bowl. His 255 carries were a career high as the Vikings struggled to find a complementary back, cycling through Cam Akers, Ty Chandler and even Myles Gaskin.

Tonight the Stokastic NFL stat projections Jones for 13.09 carries and 56.35 yards, with Mason seeing 10.96 for 47.18 and McCarthy at 6.39 for a scant 19.33 yards. Expectations are that Jones will earn around four targets while Mason gets just under half of that, and there is a 30% probability that Chandler will get a look as well.

This is shaping up to be a two-man show, with Jones the passing down and high-leverage option, and Mason getting his chances between the 20s and in games where Minnesota has a lead.

Tight End | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

T.J. Hockenson missed the first two months of last year recovering from a knee injury, and though he didn’t find the end zone in his 10 regular season games, he did reach pay dirt in the Wild Card loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Hockenson made the Pro Bowl in two of his first four seasons, one with Detroit and the other in 2022 when he split time between the Lions and Vikings after a midseason trade.

Hockenson will help cover while Addison is out, though there will not be much trickledown to Josh Oliver or rookie Ben Yurosek. In the games between Week 12 through the Wild Card round, after Hockenson had shaken off the rust, Oliver and Johnny Mundt (now in Jacksonville) averaged just two combined targets per game.

Kicker | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

Will Reichard was not particularly exciting in his rookie season after being a sixth-round selection from Alabama. He did flash a big leg, making 8 of 11 (72.7%) of his field goals from 50-plus yards, though he had a mediocre 80% conversion rate overall.

Defense | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

Minnesota was tied for fourth last year with a solid 49 sacks, while the Chicago struggles continued as the team allowed a league-worst 68 quarterback takedowns. The Vikings also led the league with 33 takeaways, though to the credit of the run-first approach, the Bears had only 16 turnovers on the season, including seven interceptions.

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NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1: Caleb Williams

His 479 yards were still seventh among quarterbacks, so this is something new coach Ben Johnson can leverage and improve upon the 28.8 yards per game. Anything other than Matt Eberflus and his late-season replacement Thomas Brown would be an improvement, and Chicago got the architect of the high-flying Detroit Lions offense, which is about as good as any dream scenario.

Expect the pressure to be relentless tonight, though Johnson is well versed at dealing with the Vikings. Losing safety blanket Keenan Allen is a blow, but a competent coach should be able to mitigate that absence with designed running back and bubble screens as well as setting up “hot routes” as a fallback for Williams.

Chicago Bears Positional Preview

Running Back | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

D’Andre Swift was a strong contributor last year, coming close to the production that earned him 2023 Pro Bowl honors in his lone season with Philadelphia. Swift spent his first three seasons in the league with Detroit, so he worked under Johnson, who held a variety of coaching roles in that timeframe.

Swift is a good rusher and capable receiver who should benefit from having an improved offensive scheme. Backup Roschon Johnson (foot) and rookie Kyle Monangai (hamstring), who was drafted from Rutgers in the final round, were both hurt for most of the preseason. Monangai got in a full practice on Saturday and is not on the injury report, while Johnson was limited and listed as questionable.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Swift for 15.11 carries and 61.23 yards, with five carries earmarked for the other running backs. Swift also projects for just over 3.3 targets, plus 2.1 for Johnson and 1.1 for Monangai. It will be interesting to see if any actionable updates come out prior to kickoff.

Wide Receiver | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

The Bears drafted tight end Colston Loveland with the 10th overall selection and wide receiver Luther Burden III in the second round. Both players missed time in the offseason and training camp, so while they may not be particularly polished for the first part of the season, this is a strong investment in the passing game after selecting Rome Odunze ninth last year.

Odunze was uneven in 2024, being green and with a fellow rookie as his quarterback, but he still finished the season with 101 targets under a coaching staff that was a tire fire inside of a dumpster fire from the jump.

D.J. Moore had some pouting issues last year and again in the offseason, though his new head coach told him to knock it off if he wanted to be a featured contributor to the offense. Moore has infamously had a tough run of quarterbacks throwing him the ball, including Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen, Jacob Eason, Will Grier, Taylor Heinicke, P.J. Walker, Tyson Bagent, and both Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold prior to their resurgences.

Allen vacated 120 targets, so expect Moore and Odunze to benefit from those opportunities while the rookies get up to speed. Veteran Olamide Zaccheaus is likely to get a fair amount of the slot work tonight, and at $3,200 on FanDuel and only $2,000 on DraftKings, he is an excellent discount dandy who projects for half a dozen fantasy points.

Tight End | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

In 2023, Cole Kmet signed a hefty four-year, $50 million deal with $32.8 million guaranteed, so it was somewhat surprising that the Bears took Loveland instead of upgrading on the offensive line. Clearly, Loveland is the future, and he was a strong performer at Michigan, but it is still an odd allocation of resources.

There will likely be something of a split workload, though for tonight we may see significantly more Kmet in on protection, which at least gets him on the field over Loveland. The 26-year-old had 55 targets, while the rest of the tight ends saw only 15 last year. It is really hard to get a read on the specific situation for tonight with no prior data to lean on. If you have a strong conviction one way or the other, go with your gut.

Kicker | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

Cairo Santos is an unsung hero, having converted on 19 of 22 (86.4%) of his opportunities from 50 or more yards over the last three seasons. In five years as the primary Chicago kicker, Santos has an 89.9% success rate on field goals, which is impressive considering he plays over half his game outdoors and, of course, with cold and wind being a factor during most games in the latter portion of the season.

Defense | Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

Chicago was solid with 40 sacks last year, and while Minnesota has a terrific offensive line, it will be a rookie at the helm in his first NFL game. The Bears were in the upper third of the league with 24 takeaways last year, while the Vikings were in the middle of the pack with nine fumbles. It is hard to project interception rates with any certainty for a rookie, and Minnesota did an excellent job of scheming for and elevating Sam Darnold. McCarthy will be good for at least one turnover, but if he can limit panic plays, there may not be more than that.

NFL DFS Picks for Vikings-Bears NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 1: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Vikings-Bears

1. Justin Jefferson: Just do it!
2. D’Andre Swift: Safety, along with upside.
3. Caleb Williams: Wild card, though having a new coach should help him unlock more potential.
4. Aaron Jones: Veteran savvy and fresh legs for the opener.
5. D.J. Moore: Looks to be on the same page as his coach now.
6. Cairo Santos: Nice salary saver; should get a few looks if the Vikings defense can curtail the red zone trips for Chicago.
7. Olamide Zaccheaus: Salary caps are the crux of DFS; here is a way to gain flexibility.
8. Adam Thielen: Double the salary of Zaccheaus on both sites, though he should see more opportunities.
9. J.J. McCarthy: Most likely outcome is he works from the safety of the offensive framework, with less chance for home run plays in his debut. Wins are going to be a premium this year for playoff seeding and in the NFC North against Detroit, so maximizing them is the priority, rather than letting McCarthy “work through things” in real time.
10. T.J. Hockenson: Is further removed from shredding his knee, which is a bonus.

Secondary Options

1. Jordan Mason: Mostly a decimal back (i.e., rushing yards only), unless he scores a touchdown. Lack of passing game role makes him risky on DraftKings ($7,000) and to a lesser extent on FanDuel ($5,800). The Vikings are 1.5-point road favorites, so the likelihood of extensive fourth quarter mop-up duty is limited.
2. Colston Loveland: It won’t be long before he is in the upper section for showdown rankings.
3. Minnesota D/ST: There are a lot of new things underway in Chicago, this savvy unit could exploit the inexperienced offense.
4. Will Reichard: Not particularly special and on the road; weather is favorable with temperatures in the upper 60s, and precipitation is unlikely.
5. Kyle Monangai: Speculating that Johnson is inactive; if he is a go, then neither back is particularly appealing for anyone crafting fewer than 20 lineups.

Lottery Tickets

1. Chicago D/ST: Need to capitalize on the rookie quarterback, though that is the only point of weakness for Minnesota.
2. Luther Burdon III: He should overtake Zacchaeus at some point, but it may not be prior to Halloween with all of his missed practice time.
3. Cole Kmet: Not overly exciting; he would be ahead of Reichard if the team didn’t draft Loveland.
4. Jalen Nailor and Josh Oliver: Meh, though Oliver is a little better on DraftKings for the $2,000 discount.
5. C.J. Ham: In his last 34 regular season games, he had 15 targets and three carries with one rushing touchdown.
6. Devin Duvernay: Likely lead kick returner for Chicago; this is his third team in three seasons, and he is unlikely to see any offensive snaps.
7. Myles Price: Rookie UDFA expected to handle return duties for Minnesota, Thielen and Chandler are the veteran backups for punts and kickoffs.
8. Durham Smythe, Tai Felton, Rondale Moore, Ben Yurosek and Travis Homer: Several will be inactive; none carry appeal even if they suit up.