PrizePicks NFL plays on Monday are a bit scant on value relative to the past two-game slate, but there are still a handful of +EV plays on passing attacks in the Seahawks-Giants MNF game. Here we will dive into the Stokastic projections for the Monday slate, and don’t forget that OddsShopper and PrizePicks are teaming up to offer new users a great promo: You can use the PrizePicks promo code ‘STOKASTIC17′ when you sign up to get a deposit match up to $100 and a free month of OddsShopper Premium! Now let’s break down PrizePicks’ NFL pick’em contest for MNF.
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NFL PrizePicks Pick’em Predictions | Week 4 MNF
Geno Smith M/L 21.5 Completions
Perhaps the overall production with Smith comes and goes, but darn it if he isn’t efficient. Smith led the NFL in completion percentage last year, and he is only slightly off the mark through three games this season, currently completing 68.9%. This has helped him connect on at least 22 passes in two of those three, and he did so in 11 of 17 in 2022.
A couple of things are especially working in Smith’s favor on Monday Night Football. One, he has several strong weapons to make his job easier. And two, the Giants defense has been underwhelming, allowing the fourth-most net yards per pass attempt in the NFL. The completion volume from quarterbacks has been mediocre against New York simply because of leads those teams built up — the Cowboys beat the Giants 40-0, and the Cardinals were up 20-0 before blowing it — and the Seahawks have high scoring potential, but if Seattle gets up big, chances are Smith will play a big role.
Stokastic projects Smith for 22.4 completions tonight, giving him a 54% chance of exceeding 21.5.
Daniel Jones M/L 230.5 Passing Yards
Interestingly enough, the Seahawks have allowed all three opposing quarterbacks to go over 300 yards passing, yet they are being given enough credit by the Stokastic projections to make a less play on Jones. After all, the first three Seattle games featured a desperate Andy Dalton throwing nearly 60 times and two more prolific passers in Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford. A Jones-led offense is far less likely to air it out as much as those did.
Jones is averaging about 32 attempts per game and completing 21, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt. That is abysmal efficiency for modest volume. Jones will have to throw close to 40 times if he maintains that average, something he has done in 23.2% of his career regular season starts, and he has only two hits on more than 230.5 yards in his last nine games. He managed to get there in Week 2, but that required a massive deficit and a huge comeback effort. Stokastic does not expect the same sort of game out of Jones or Seattle tonight; it projects Jones for 226.2 yards passing on 32.5 attempts for a 54% chance of the less play hitting.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba M/L 2.5 Receptions
This play works alongside the Smith one above since there is obvious correlation between Smith getting to his mark and at least one of his receivers getting to theirs. The only question is which one it will be.
Smith-Njigba is pretty clearly the Seahawks’ WR3, and there is a bit of a gap in target share between him and the top two of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. That said, he has seen five targets or more in two of his three games and caught three or more twice as well. The yards are not coming with those, as Smith-Njigba is averaging just 6.33 yards per reception, but Smith is at least looking his way a decent amount of the time.
There is also the matter of two of Seattle’s tight ends, Noah Fant and Will Dissly, being questionable tonight. Neither is a massive target hound, but they have combined for 14 total, so if either or both miss, that is more potentially for Smith-Njigba. It is also worth noting that the Stokastic projections have Smith-Njigba eclipsing 2.5 receptions with Fant and Dissly being treated as good to go — should either be ruled out, Smith-Njigba’s projections will improve.
As it stands, he is going for 2.62 receptions on 4.5 targets, giving him a 54% chance of getting more than 2.5 catches on Monday.
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