Tampa Bay (6-4) has a half game lead over Carolina (6-5), as the Buccaneers have had injuries across their entire wideout corps, along with missing running back Bucky Irving since Week 4. The Pewter Pirates are still heavy -850 favorites to win the NFC South for a fifth consecutive year. Los Angeles (8-2) is tied with Philadelphia (8-2) after besting Seattle (7-3) in a close game last Sunday.
This is an important game for each team, though the Rams are 7.0-point home favorites in a game with a 49.5-point game total. This means there is ample DFS strategy to consider. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Buccaneers-Rams Week 12 SNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from SoFi Stadium in California.
NFL Sunday Night Football Week 12 DFS Picks: Buccaneers-Rams
NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12: Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,600
FanDuel: $11,600
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.64
FanDuel: 18.04
Baker Mayfield is the main cog in the offense this season, with Mike Evans missing Week 3 through Week 6 then being injured again in Week 7. Chris Godwin missed the first three games of the year, recovering from his ankle injury that knocked him out of last season, though he played only two games before missing the last five. Jalen McMillian (neck) has not played yet and may not this season, plus rookie breakout Bucky Irving was on the shelf the last six games and might not return until just before Christmas.
Mayfield is averaging 236.5 yards per game, which is his lowest since becoming the Tampa Bay starter, though at least he has just three interceptions after leading the league with 16 in 2024. Of course, he also had 41 touchdowns last year, and his 5.0% rate is below the 7.2% rate from his second Pro Bowl season, but in line with his career average.
Across his last 27 starts, Mayfield is averaging 21.3 rushing yards per game and has four total touchdowns. The tricky part for tonight is that Los Angeles is elite with a passing defense that ranks top 5 in DVOA, coverage grade, EPA per dropback and several other advanced metrics. The Rams allowed three multi-touchdown games, with Mac Jones tossing two and three tuddies, and Jalen Hurts getting three as well, along with a rushing score.
On Sunday, Sam Darnold was coaxed into a horrendous four interceptions, and his 279 yards were on the back of 44 pass attempts. Getting Godwin back is a bonus, though he is likely to be pretty rusty and still not at full health. This is going to be a matchup where Mayfield has to earn his paycheck.
It is worth noting that there was an illness going around the Tampa locker room earlier this week, though Mayfield and the other afflicted players are not on the most recent injury report.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Positional Preview
Running Back | Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12
The running game is also going to have a long row to hoe against the Rams, who allow just 100.7 rushing yards per game, 3.9 per carry and are tied with New England, ceding just four scores via the ground. Derrick Henry got to Los Angeles for 122 yards on 24 carries, though he didn’t score, and the team held Jonathan Taylor in check with 76 yards and no touchdowns on 17 carries.
Rachaad White is doing his best, though in his six starts as Irving’s replacement, he averaged 12.3 carries for 44.7 yards, bringing in 20 of 23 targets for another 18.5 yards per game. It has been a month since he scored a touchdown, and that is likely to be a tough task on Sunday Night Football.
Sean Tucker had a tremendous game in Buffalo, posting 106 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, catching both of his targets for 34 yards and another score. Five of his six career rushing touchdowns occurred in the last five games, along with one of his two career receiving scores.
White has no carries of more than 20 yards, with 16 being his longest this season. Tucker should see action on 30% to 40% of the snaps, though White will still have the first crack at holding on to the lead role. Since Irving went down, the other reserve running backs have 10 total snaps, making this a two-man show.
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Wide Receiver | Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12
Pundits did like Emeka Egbuka out of Ohio State as one of the top wideouts in his class, though consensus was that it was more of a luxury selection for the Buccaneers. Clearly, the team is thrilled with the results, especially since this is an injury-ravaged position. Egbuka had his own injury issues — nothing too significant, but the wear and tear of the season is catching up to him.
Los Angeles has healthy starters across the defensive backfield, though the depth is thinned out with Quentin Lake and Ahkello Witherspoon on the injured reserve. That led the team to rely more on Emmanuel Forbes Jr. in nickel and dime packages. Forbes was the 16th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, but at 170 pounds, he had a tough time acclimating to the NFL with Washington. The Commanders released him last November, and Los Angeles claimed him after he passed through waivers.
It is likely that the Rams will lean towards zone coverage, which at least is somewhat helpful to Mayfield and Egbuka, though it is unlikely to be enough of a magic elixir to overcome this strong back seven.
Godwin will at least draw coverage, and he has great hands, but we cannot be sure how effective he will be for anything other than short routes. Tez Johnson had a couple of nice moments, showing he can be a depth piece. However, he and Sterling Shepard are likely to cede snaps to Godwin, with either Ryan Miller or Kameron Johnson ending up inactive and the other probably getting eight or so offensive plays. Considering Johnson is a key cog in the return game, Miller will likely be inactive.
Tight End | Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12
Cade Otton was on the field for at least 97% of the snaps each of the last five games, and his only game below a 90% snap share was in the opener, when he was on the field for 86% off the offensive sets. Depending on the need for additional blocking and with injuries to the wideouts, Payne Durham vacillated between a 25% to 45% snap share, though he has only two targets on the season.
Otton is second on the team with 53 targets, and he had at least five in each of the last six games, averaging seven per tilt in this timeframe. The former University of Washington stalwart is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, but he tallied at least 40 yards in five of the last six games, with two just over 80 yards.
Kicker | Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12
Chase McLaughlin is a steady contributor, converting on 20 of 24 (83%) field goal attempts, including all eight from 50-plus yards. In his 44 regular season games for the Buccaneers, McLaughlin is an ace with a 91% success rate, including 23 of 26 (88%) from beyond 50 yards. His game should translate well in SoFi Stadium, making the journeyman who plied his trade with seven different teams a core play for the single-game contests.
Defense | Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12
The Rams suffered only eight turnovers (two interceptions and six fumbles lost), with the Pewter Pirates raking up an impressive 10 interceptions and six fumble recoveries. The Bucs are averaging 2.6 sacks per game, while Los Angeles allowed only 14 sacks this year.
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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 12: Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,800
FanDuel: $12,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 21.45
FanDuel: 16.81
Prior to his Week 6 injury, Puka Nacua was pacing for an all-time season. He was back for a trio of tilts with eight, six and eight targets. This will be a much easier matchup than what he had against Seattle last week, though he still converted all but one target for 75 yards, with two more rushing attempts netting him 18 yards. Each of the two preceding games he had a touchdown, and it would be a surprise if he didn’t score tonight.
Speaking of touchdowns, Davante Adams racked up four in the last three games, and he leads the league with 10 touchdowns, two more than Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Tampa’s passing defense is not at the same level as the Rams, though the Buccaneers are in the top half of the league in most advanced metrics, with a top-10 passing DVOA. It should be no surprise that Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up 8/132/1 on nine targets against the Pewter Pirates, plus the nine targets for 5/142/0 by Kendrick Bourne were a bit of a shock. However, that was in Week 6 when he, a banged-up Jauan Jennings, and the Kansas City castoffs of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Demarcus Robinson (yes, there were other teams, but the alliteration was too good to pass) were holding down the position. This demonstrates that there is the possibility of getting some fantasy goodness on the outside edge, which bodes well for Adams and Nacua.
Starting cornerback Jamel Dean (hip) is out, and backup Benjamin Morrison (hamstring) is questionable, having just one limited practice session this week. Depth pieces JJ Roberts and Rashad Wilson are also on the injured reserve, and starting strongside linebacker Haason Reddick is also out. That is going to put a lot of pressure on safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith, along with whatever backups are in coverage with Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish.
Konata Mumpfield, Xavier Smith and Jordan Whittington are the “other” receivers with Tutu Atwell out, though they had two, six and one targets since the Week 8 bye.
In a twist, since the bye it the tight ends combined for 13, 14 and four targets in the three games, being held in check by the Seahawks. Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson are the preferred plays, though Davis Allen (4, 2, 0) and Terrance Ferguson (3, 4, 0) had been just as involved as the other two until Sunday. Higbee was placed on the injured reserve, so that does take one option off the table. Ferguson has the better salary among this trio, and it is important to remember he has second-round draft capital coming out of Oregon.
There are many potential paths to a unique lineup build, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Los Angeles Rams Positional Preview
Quarterback | Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12
Remember a million years ago when Matthew Stafford was reportedly not ready to throw during the end of the preseason and apparently camping in a hyperbaric trailer or something of that ilk? Fortunately, the 37-year-old (who will be 38 the day before the Super Bowl) has been able to avoid significant punishment on the field, and he is leading the league with 27 passing touchdowns.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Stafford is -115 for over 255.5 passing yards, +150 for more than 2.5 touchdowns and -150 to not have positive rushing yards. That is the callout for Stafford as he currently sits at negative-9 rushing yards on 24 attempts, though when we remember that kneeldowns count towards this total, it makes more sense. Across his last 50 starts, the future Hall of Famer averaged 2.1 rushing yards per game.
Tampa allowed five passing touchdowns over the last two games, with five opposing field generals managing to have multi-touchdown games in the last nine weeks. Four quarterbacks put up at least 298 passing yards against the Buccaneers, so there is attainable upside for Stafford, who is fifth in the league at 255.7 yards per game.
Running Back | Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12
Across the last four games, including the three after the Week 8 bye, Blake Corum logged 12, 13, 13 and eight carries. The first three games were decisive Los Angeles victories, while Kyren Williams saw 12, 25, 14 and 19 totes. It looks like Williams settled into a 60% to 65% snap share with Corum pushing just over 30% and actually getting touches outside of garbage time.
Corum had just three targets in these four games, with two coming against the Seahawks on Sunday. Williams had eight, so it is not exactly a giant chasm, with both losing out to Nacua, Adams and the tight end position.
Currently, the Stokastic NFL projections have Williams for 14.9 carries and 70.1 yards, with 2.6 targets for 2.2 receptions and 14.4 yards. Corum is at 9.4 carries and 44.1 yards, plus a 60% probability of having one reception. Williams is the most likely to get a touchdown, as he had 18 red zone opportunities over the last four games and Corum got nine.
Kicker | Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12
Harrison Mevis was signed to the 53-man roster after being elevated from the practice squad for the last couple of games. Joshua Karty is also on the 53-man roster, though he was last active in Week 9, having struggled his way to a dismal 10-for-15 (67%) on his field goals, also missing three extra-point attempts.
Naturally, Mevis did not have a field goal attempt in his two starts, though he converted on all nine point-after-touchdown tries. Mevis was an UDFA out of Missouri, earning First-Team All-American honors as a sophomore. He was previously with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, though his only professional action prior to this season was in 2024 with the Birmingham Stallions in the UFL.
Defense | Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12
Los Angeles been solid with 2.7 sacks per game, while the Buccaneers cede two per tilt. The Rams have an impressive 18 takeaways, which ranks third. Tampa is elite with ball protection, recording only three interceptions and four lost fumbles.
NFL DFS Picks for Buccaneers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 12: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Buccaneers-Rams
- Puka Nacua: Getting healthy, and he is a savant in all facets of his craft.
- Baker Mayfield: Better in the utility slot, though he does have a 14.3% MVP representation on FanDuel, with less than half that for the DraftKings Captain slot. Know your scoring systems and salary cap nuances!
- Davante Adams: It seems unlikely that the banged-up Tampa secondary will mitigate both wideouts on every play.
- Emeka Egbuka: Currently the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Sean Tucker: Semi-bold call with this ranking; he is more dynamic than his plodding counterpart.
- Chase McLaughlin: Key salary saver who has double-digit fantasy point potential.
- Matthew Stafford: MVP frontrunner, along with Drake Maye heading into Sunday’s action.
- Blake Corum: Not for the faint of heart, but at just $3,000, he presents a $7,000 savings to Williams on DraftKings. This is less appealing on FanDuel, where it is $12,000 for Williams and $7,200 for Corum.
- Harrison Mervis: Perhaps tonight he will get his first NFL field goal attempt.
- Los Angeles DST: SoFi Stadium should be rocking tonight!
Secondary Options
- Rachaad White: Steady presence, though the winds of change are in the air.
- Kyren Williams: Gets by on volume, but with Corum getting more early-game work, that safety is eroding and his lofty salary is not properly accounting for this developing downside. Still has strong touchdown equity, though he is competing with Adams, Nacua and the tight ends.
- Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen: The rookie is getting a little more love in the models for his slight salary savings, but Parkinson is still the most well-rounded of the group. Allen has had moments, and we know that primetime games tend to sprinkle magic across the tight ends.
- Chris Godwin Jr.: If he were completely healthy and at the apex of his powers of the last few seasons, he would rank above Egbuka. It seems those days may have passed for the 29-year-old who just can’t get healthy.
- Tampa Bay DST: It just takes one big play, though being on the road with several key contributors dinged up lowers this unit in the rankings.
Lottery Tickets
- Jordan Whittington and Sterling Shepard: Each will be on the field and likely get a couple of targets, but both are well down the pecking order for their respective squads.
- Xavier Smith: Returns punts and shares kickoff responsibilities with Whittington and Corum. Should get a couple of offensive snaps, and a target or two is in the cards.
- Kameron Johnson: Should be active as the main punt returner, and he shares kickoff duties with Tucker. Hard to envision offensive snaps with Godwin healthy.
- Konata Mumpfield: Dart throw at best; decent chance that Brennan Presley will active for the first time in his career as he was elevated from the practice squad, making him a potential active tonight, though he would most likely be only on special teams.
- Payne Durham: Will be on the field; has only two targets for the season.
- Ryan Miller, Ronnie Rivers, Devin Culp, Owen Wright, Orville Wright and Wilbur Wright: Negative Ghost Rider, the pattern is full.
