NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Chiefs at Giants (Sept. 21)

Tonight has an intriguing matchup for Week 3 Sunday Night Football. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Chiefs-Giants Week 3 Sunday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

NFL Sunday Night Football Week 3 DFS Picks: Chiefs-Giants

The Kansas City season is suddenly looking like the Chiefs may not be a playoff contender, while the head coach Brian Daboll is likely to hear clamoring from the fans for rookie Jaxson Dart to be under center sooner rather than later.

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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3: Patrick Mahomes

After that stretch, Mahomes propelled the Chiefs to two more Super Bowl appearances, winning Super Bowl LVIII and the MVP award in overtime, while last February’s matchup resulted in a loss to a dominant Philadelphia squad. In the last two-plus seasons, Mahomes has averaged 251.6 passing yards per game. This has dropped his career average down to 287.7 yards per game, still above Drew Brees’ 280.0 per game by. Tyreek Hill heading to Miami, Travis Kelce really looking like a 35-year-old, a variety of injuries to other contributing pass-catchers and defenses going with more over the top coverage have all conspired to curb Mahomes’ gaudy numbers.

This has been a rough start to the season for the future Hall of Famer, with Rashee Rice still having four games left on his suspension, Xavier Worthy out after injuring his shoulder in a Week 1 collision with Kelce and the recently engaged tight end looking more like a 40-year-old.

In a wild twist, Mahomes has 123 rushing yards already, which is the 17th most in the league and tops for quarterbacks. He has nearly half of last year’s 307 yards already, and his two touchdowns through two games equal his last 34 regular season games combined. Even with up being down and down being up, Kansas City is still favored by 6.5 points on the road against New York.

Looking at the free OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Mahomes currently has –106 odds on over 239.5 passing yards, and he is -109 to rush for more than 29.5 yards.

New York allowed 233 passing and 68 rushing yards to Jayden Daniels in the opener, and then last week the overtime track meet saw Dak Prescott with 361 yards on a massive 52 attempts. The Giants are a little worse than league average, allowing 7.0 passing yards per attempt and a 96.4 passer rating through two games.

Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview

Running Back | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Looking at the results for Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, it is easy to see why Mahomes has had to carry the team even more than usual. Thus far, Hunt has 13 carries for 47 yards with three catches for another 13 yards. Pacheco, who got a pass from everyone last year when he was returning from a fractured leg, has been pedestrian at best, recording 15 carries for 47 yards, accompanied by three receptions for another 10 yards. Neither back has hit pay dirt, and Hunt has the lone red zone opportunity for the position.

The Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have earmarked Pacheco for nearly a dozen carries, Hunt just shy of nine and Mahomes getting 6.4, which is absurd but appears to be necessary as Kansas City remains winless. Rookie Brashard Smith projects for 3.7 combined opportunities, while Pacheco and Hunt have just under two projected targets.

For those wondering about the snap share, Pacheco (66/55%) has 19 more than Hunt (47/39%), with Smith languishing as the third wheel at 13 offensive plays.

New York allowed rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt to collect 82 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries in the opener, while much-maligned Javonte Williams had 18 totes for 97 yards and a score last Sunday.

Wide Receiver | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Worthy is out again with his shoulder injury, so that means Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is the most accomplished remaining wideout. There is an argument that Juju Smith-Schuster had a higher apex, though that was back in 2018 in his lone Pro Bowl season and the only year he had more than 950 yards. Yes, those were fun times for the Pittsburgh Steelers but also two lifetimes ago in NFL terms.

Brown is basically Mr. Glass, constantly heading to the sidelines with nagging injuries. He looked good in the opener, seeing a whopping 16 targets, but had just five last Sunday, along with a couple of visits to the training staff. He was a full participant in the last practice, though he could easily re-tweak his sprained ankle or pick up some other soft-tissue malady once the whistle blows.

Tyquan Thornton has been the downfield threat, and at $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel, he presents upside if he can connect with Mahomes on a deep pass. He is third in the league at 284 air yards and first with a 31.6 aDOT on his nine targets, ahead of rookie Dont’e Thornton Jr. (no relation) among players with at least five targets on the season.

Jason Brownlee will likely be on the field for half a dozen snaps, pending any injuries to the aforementioned trio. He saw some action his rookie year with New York and was on the Jets practice squad last year. Nikko Remigio may see the field for a snap or two, and unlike Brownlee, he at least caught his lone target from Mahomes. Rookie Jalen Royals does not have any offensive snaps through the first two tilts.

Tight End | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Kelce will be 36 years old in a couple weeks, though last year his decline in mobility was offset by being the most trusted target on the team. This year he has already made multiple gaffs, which, of course, have been magnified by who he is off the field. He had only three touchdowns in 16 games last year, despite still seeing 133 targets. Expect him to be on the field for around 80% of the offensive snaps since the wide receiver cupboard is bare.

Noah Gray jumped from 41% offensive participation to 65% last week, also getting five of his six targets on the season. Kelce still had six, but Gray has a real role and is the heir apparent. Though he is not anything close to what Kelce was, the talent gap is pretty thin these days.

Robert Tonyan Jr. was the TE3, but he was not targeted on any of his 13 snaps. Since his magical 2020 season that saw him roll up 11 touchdowns, he has only four since and has been a part-time player each of the last two seasons in Chicago and Minnesota.

Kicker | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Harrison Butker was mostly a non-factor in 2024, seeing only 25 regular season field goal attempts and missing three of his five from beyond 50 yards, though he did convert all five from long range in 2023. He has made 2 of 3 from 50-plus yards this year, with a long of 59.

Defense | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Last year the Giants were in the bottom third of the league, ceding 48 quarterback takedowns, though New York was a little worse than league average with 23 turnovers. This year the G-men have allowed five sacks and suffered one interception. Kansas City was in the middle of the pack last year with 20 takeaways, though the Chiefs do not yet have one through two weeks of action. Overall this is a solid defense, and it should be DFS relevant on Sunday Night Football.

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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3: Malik Nabers

Darius Slayton is the only other wideout to see targets, with one and three in the first two games of the season. He has been on the field for all but three snaps, while Nabers has been on the sideline for only five. Robinson has a 73% snap share, and the only other wide receiver to step between the lines on offense was Beaux Collins, for two plays in the opener.

Slayton has mostly been working the perimeter, but one moonball from Wilson could land him in the optimal lineup. Nabers and Robinson are core plays, and both are candidates for the multiplier slot.

Of course, there is strategy to choosing other Captains and MVPs, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

New York Giants Positional Preview

Quarterback | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

DangeRuss was in full effect against Dallas, racking up 450 yards and a trio of tuddies in the overtime thriller, adding 23 yards on three carries. That total was 2 yards shy of his personal-best 452, posted in a regulation game against the Houston Texans back in 2017.

In an ironic twist, that was Wilson’s second 400-yard performance in his last eight games, and those outings have been the only time he topped 300 yards in his last 25 starts. Mahomes has two 400-yard efforts in his last 44 games, also with one in overtime and one in regulation.

Running Back | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Tyrone Tracy Jr. did not start Week 2, ceding the lead role to fourth-round rookie Cam Skattebo. Could that have been the result of Tracy grumbling about Week 1 play calling with a lack of rushing attempts in the red zone against Washington? According to coach Brian Daboll, no, but #CoachSpeak. Now it is important to note that Tracy was stellar with five kickoff returns for 132 yards, and he still played just seven snaps fewer than Skattebo and had five targets for the second straight game.

Skattebo had three, giving him five targets on the season, and after getting just two rushing attempts in the opener, he had 11 for 45 yards and a score, while Tracy dropped from 10 carries for 24 yards to five for 15 yards. This is more indicative that we should expect a very shared backfield until the dust settles, plus veteran Devin Singletary has snuck in for four carries, earning 14 yards and catching his lone target for negative-4 yards.

The game was, of course, a wild one with 77 total points and overtime. Expect the youngsters to continue to get the bulk of the looks, and considering they have similar salary cap hits on DraftKings and FanDuel, let personal preference be your guide for this decision point.

Tight End | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Second-year tight end Theo Johnson has dominated the playing time for the Giants, seeing nearly an 81% snap share. Daniel Bellinger and Chris Manhertz are languishing well behind with 24% snap rates. Johnson has eight of the 10 targets to the position so far, three coming in the red zone. Wilson was always noted for going to tight ends in the red zone during his days in Seattle, which bodes well for Johnson.

Kicker | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Graham Gano actually started his NFL career before there was DFS. Between 2020 and 2022, the now 38-year-old was nails from long distance, converting on 20 of 25 (80%) from 50-plus yards. Injuries have been an issue over the last two years, though he still nailed 5 of 6 (83%) from beyond 50 yards during this timeframe. This is his sixth season with New York, so he is well versed in kicking at MetLife Field.

Defense | Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 3

Mahomes has tossed one interception, though he has been sacked four times and his 5.56% sack rate is barely below his terrible 5.83% last year and well above his career-average 4.25% rate. To the credit of the G-men, they have six sacks this season, and last year the team was just inside the top 10 with 45 quarterback takedowns. New York was among the dregs of the league in 2024 with less than a takeaway per tilt, and this year is trending to be similar.

NFL DFS Picks for Chiefs-Giants NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 3: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs-Giants

1. Patrick Mahoes: Mahomies Unite!
2. Malik Nabers: Could end up as the WR1 in all of the fantasy realm this year.
3. Russell Wilson: He has nothing to lose since he is only keeping the seat warm for Dart.
4. Wan’Dale Robinson: Very much in play on both sites, though he is a tougher click on FanDuel for the multiplier slot with half-PPR scoring.
5. Cam Skattebo: We are likely to see a shared backfield all season, though Skattebo does appear to be on the cusp of widening the gap a little.
6. Hollywood Brown: The math wins out over the in-game injury concerns.
7. Graham Gano: Projectable value.
8. Harrison Butker: Ibid.
9. Tyquan Thornton and Juju Smith-Schuster: Could push both of them above the kickers on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring format. Thornton in the rotation as a kick returner with Smith and Remigio; the latter is the main punt returner.
10. Tyrone Tracy Jr.: Just edges out the next guy because salary is a thing. Also returns kickoffs with Robinson and Gunner Olszewski, who has a dual role as the lead punt return man.

Secondary Options

1. Travis Kelce: It was a heckuva run.
2. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt: Hunt provides $3,000 in savings on DraftKings and a $1,200 discount on the blue site.
3. Noah Gray: Not too shabby on DraftKings ($2,000) or FanDuel ($3,000).

Lottery Tickets

1. Theo Johnson: Just misses the cut for the above section.
2. New York D/ST: Gets the homefield nod.
3. Kansas City D/ST: Old Man Wilson is susceptible to splash plays by opposing defenses.
4. Jalen Royals: Has been dealing with knee tendinitis since the latter portion of training camp; getting close to a return.
5. Darius Slayton: Needs a touchdown to be relevant, or something happening to Nabers/Robinson.
6. Brashard Smith: Remember the Derrick Gore primetime game? That was also against the Giants. #AndyReidRandomRBsFTW
7. Daniel Bellinger, Devin Singletary, Gunner Olszewski, Jason Brownlee, Nikko Remigio, Jalin Hyatt, Beaux Collings, Robert Tonyan, Jared Wiley and Chris Manhertz: Just a whole lotta m-e-h, MEH!