The San Francisco 49ers are chugging along even though nearly every offensive skill position player having missed time, along with half of their key defensive playmakers. Their 4-2 record is among the league leaders, despite all the attrition. Atlanta is having a strong season as well, sitting at 3-2 and earning key wins at home against Buffalo and Washington. Plus there is no shame in losing the opener to Tampa Bay, which won the NFC South each of the last four seasons. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Falcons-49ers Week 7 SNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
NFL Sunday Night Football Week 7 DFS Picks: Falcons-49ers
NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 7: Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,200
FanDuel: $13,400
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.27
FanDuel: 13.71
In four of the last five games, San Francisco allowed opposing running backs to accumulate 86 or more combined rushing and receiving yards, with three backs reaching 120 yards or more. This bodes well for Bijan Robinson, who is second with 96.8 rushing yards per game and 18th with 67.6 receiving yards. Robinson also has three carries and six receptions of 20 or more yards. The only knock is that he has a scant three trips to the end zone, though that should revert closer to his 0.88 per game of last year.
Tyler Allgeier is making the most of his opportunities, playing on around 30% of the offensive sets. Though he has only four targets on the season, Allgeier had 10 carries in two games and 16 in two other tilts. He scored touchdowns in three of these outings, with his lone dud being the 30-0 loss to the Panthers in Carolina, when he had one carry and two targets. Nathan Carter is the only other running back to step between the lines, and seven of his eight snaps were back in Week 3, with no action in the last two matchups.
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Atlanta Falcons Positional Preview
Quarterback | Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7
San Francisco allowed five passing touchdowns over the last two tilts, with Baker Mayfield (256/2/0) and Matthew Stafford (389/3/0) doing the heavy lifting. The Niners also allowed Spencer Rattler to have a strong game in Week 2, as he went for 207 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. This is a drastically different defense without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, plus the absences of defensive backs Tre Tomlinson and Jakob Robinson, along with edge rushers Yetur Gross-Matos and Tarron Jackson, decimated the depth. Cornerback Renardo Green (neck) is questionable, as is nickelback Upton Stout (shoulder), though the latter indicated he will play.
Michael Penix Jr. will make his ninth NFL start tonight, and he has the team on a two-game winning streak, with victories in half his starts. Two of his losses last year went to overtime, which is actually impressive for the former University of Washington stalwart. While he has just four touchdowns this season against three interceptions, he is showing improvement each game.
Penix has the luxury of an excellent go-to receiver and a tremendous running game that is going to do a lot of the heavy lifting for him. Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Penix is -115 for over 215.5 passing yards, -108 for more than 6.5 rushing yards and +125 for two passing scores.
Wide Receiver | Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7
Despite playing in just five games with Atlanta already being on a bye, Drake London is top 10 in targets, receptions and yards. Last year he was top 10 in the key categories as well, the late-season rapport with Penix growing every game this year. True “shadow coverage” defensive backs were few and far between the last half decade as so many teams went to zone and cover 2-4 sets. Best guess is that London will see a fair amount of Deommodore Lenoir, which is of little concern.
Ray-Ray McCloud III is out, though Saturday evening reports suggest Darnell Mooney will play on Sunday Night Football. It was shoulder issue that limited him during the preseason and kept him out of the opener, and the latest malady is a hamstring issue.
Casey Washington played on 95% of the snaps in Week 1 without Mooney and on 80% Monday. He also saw action on 52% of the Week 4 offensive sets, when Mooney suffered his in-game injury. Though the second-year wideout came up blank on his two Monday targets, he converted on three of six looks for 33 yards in the opener and one of three in Week 4, tallying 19 yards. That isn’t much, but it also is not bupkis, and we leave no stone unturned for the single-game slates.
Speculation is that if Mooney plays, Washington will fade into the background, with David Sills V and Mooney sharing the snaps McCloud vacated. Again, thin analysis, though it is another decision point for the single-game sets.
Tight End | Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7
Kyle Pitts Sr. was on the field for a whopping 93% of the offensive action on Monday Night Football after hovering right around an 80% play participation through the first four games. Considering that Mooney is looking dicey to play and McCloud is out for a second consecutive game, Pitts could fall into some additional opportunities. Sadly, Pitts had just four looks from Penix on Monday Night Football, two were in the red zone. The enigmatic fantasy darling/villain had 24 through the first four games, so the four six days ago are his floor.
Charlie Woerner is the only other tight end to see looks from Penix, with one target in the opener and his second back in Week 3. While Pitts is more of a receiver than a blocker, Woerner is doing the grunt work and was on the field for 67% or more of the plays in three of the last four games, with the lone outlier being the ugly whooping against the Panthers, where he played only 14 (21%) of the snaps.
Kicker | Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7
Eddy Pinero spent time with four teams, appearing in 75 games across five-plus seasons. He is a slightly more advanced version of his counterpart tonight: Good enough to hold a job, though only via the kicker carousel. He leads the league with 15 field goal attempt and is perfect thus far, including four from beyond 50 yards. He is 7-for-8 (88%) on extra points, and the 49ers organization is thrilled with the overall results.
Defense | Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7
Atlanta suffered three interceptions and just two fumbles in five games, while San Francisco got all five takeaways via fumbles. The Falcons have just seven sacks, and though they already had their bye week, that is among the fewest in the league. In turn, the 49ers collected only seven quarterback takedowns, the second fewest among all squads.
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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 7: Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000
FanDuel: $13,200
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 19.33
FanDuel: 15.95
The Atlanta defense is humming with an above-average rushing DVOA, and the Falcons sat near the top of the passing ranks for the last couple of weeks. It is still only five games, but this is a vast improvement over the last couple of seasons. Only three opposing running backs tallied more than 50 rushing yards, and none hit 100 combined yards.
This, of course, is likely to change tonight with Christian McCaffrey, who trails only Robinson in yards from scrimmage. The future Hall of Famer has a different mix than his counterpart, averaging only 56 rushing yards per game, though he is 12th on the receiving leaderboard with 74 yards per appearance. The 3.1 yards per tote are a career low, but the overall touch volume is there with a league-leading 154 opportunities.
McCaffrey’s 46 catches trail only Ja’Marr Chase (58) and Puka Nacua (54), and he also contributed four scores. Backup Brian Robinson Jr. was barely on the field with just 33 offensive snaps over the last four games, and Isaac Guerendo is yet to step between the lines. Robinson has 27 carries for 108 yards, and he brought in five of six targets for 11 more.
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk was on the field for around 35% of the offensive action during the last four tilts, earning nine of his 12 targets for the season. It will be interesting to see if Juszczyk sees both his playing time and offensive opportunities dip with the expected return of George Kittle, who has been out since suffering a pulled hamstring in the opener.
Tonight the Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have McCaffrey for 14.2 carries and 75.3 yards, with Robinson seeing 3.3 for 11.8 yards. McCaffrey is projected to lead the team with a 20.6% target share, equating to a median projection of 7.2 targets, 5.4 receptions on 45.1 yards. Robinson is 50/50 to get a target, and Juszczyk projects for a tick shy of two offensive opportunities.
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San Francisco 49ers Positional Preview
Quarterback | Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7
Brock Purdy (toe) will miss his third consecutive game, and Ricky Pearsall (knee) is out again as well. Backup Mac Jones was outstanding, leading the league with 313 passing yards per game. For his part, Purdy was second with 293 yards per game in his two appearances, which resulted in the injury-decimated 49ers leading the league with 291.5 aerial yards per appearance.
Yes, the Niners did have that pitched battle on Thursday Night Football, surprising the Rams in Los Angeles in an overtime thriller, but Dallas (270.3 passing yards per game) had two overtime efforts, and the Cowboys are well behind San Francisco. To show how much the passing volume slipped in the league, Indianapolis ranks fifth with 245 yards per game, which would have been 12th back in 2021.
Jones is also managing knee and oblique issues, so major kudos to the NFL nomad for leading his team to three wins in his four starts. The 27-year-old never was much of a rushing threat, averaging just 7.9 yards per game for his career. He is still a viable option for the multiplier slots tonight, though only for those crafting 20 or more lineups.
Pass Catchers | Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7
In addition to Kittle and Pearsall missing significant time, Brandon Aiyuk is still convalescing from his knee injury that ended last season early, Jauan Jennings missed two games and is now playing through broken ribs, and veteran Demarcus Robinson was suspended for the first three games of the season.
This resulted in Kendrick Bourne leading the receivers with 33 targets, a whopping 20 of which came in the last two tilts. Robinson has 10 opportunities in this stretch, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling getting three in each matchup.
Bourne and Jones played together in New England for three seasons, giving them the best rapport. The former Eastern Washington Eagle was an undrafted free agent, getting a chance to play for Shanahan in 2017 when he took over as the head coach in San Francisco until Bourne left for the Patriots in free agency in 2021. The return of Kittle should not adversely impact Bourne, particularly with Jennings’ rib injury and Kansas City castoffs Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore not being particularly effective.
Tight end Jake Tonges had 18 looks in the last two games, and given his 31 targets in the five games without Kittle, he definitely earned a role in the offense going forward. Word around the campfire is that there will be no limits on Kittle tonight, but keep in mind he is one of the best blockers on the team, and even though he has three of the top 12 single-game receiving performances by tight ends in league history, coach Kyle Shanahan was judicious with his offensive opportunities over the last few seasons. Of course, the offense was not this injury riddled previously, and Kittle is always live for a multi-touchdown effort.
There are a lot of moving parts in the passing game to parse out, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Kicker | Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7
John Parker Romo (who indicated he prefers to go by Parker) took over the kicking gig for Atlanta in Week 2. The Falcons released longtime incumbent Younghoe Koo after a rough Week 1 and tough 2024. Last year Romo served as the placekicker four games as an injury replacement for the Vikings, making 11 of 12 field goals, including his only 50-yard attempt. Romo also spent time with New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago and New England on various practice squads and preseason rosters, never getting into any games.
Romo played for three colleges, serving as the kickoff specialist for Central Arkansas and Tulsa, finally getting a starting gig in his third year with Virginia Tech. In 2023 he was the All-XFL kicker playing for the San Antonio Brahmas. He converted 17 of 19 field goal attempts in 10 games, and for a moment he held the league record with a 57-yard field goal, which was later broken by a 59-yarder.
Currently, he is 8-for-11 (73%) on field goals while being perfect on all eight of his point-after-touchdown kicks. He missed both field goal attempts in Week 3 at Carolina, though Atlanta stuck with him. It would not be a surprise if he lost this job at some point down the line, but that is not a concern for tonight.
Defense | Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7
Atlanta has 14 sacks through five games, including four on Monday Night Football against Josh Allen. San Francisco is ceding just over two sacks per game, which is in the middle of the pack. The 49ers have 10 turnovers, among the most in the league, while the Falcons have eight, ranking in the top 10.
NFL DFS Picks for Falcons-49ers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 7: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Falcons-49ers
- Christian McCaffrey: Gets the veteran nod over Robinson.
- Bijan Robinson: Very viable to be the top DFS performer tonight.
- Drake London: Above the quarterbacks on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring in effect.
- Mac Jones: Tonight will be his 54th career start, and he has proven to be unflappable. Do not dock him for his New England days; replacing Tom Terrific was always going to be hard.
- Michael Penix Jr.: Looks like a keeper, though he still has a long way to go on his learning curve.
- George Kittle: Currently +200 to score a touchdown, which is perfect preparation for National Tight End Day next Sunday.
- Eddy Pineiro: Projectable value option.
- Kendrick Bourne: Easily could swap ranking order with Kittle; Bourne is $800 more on DraftKings and $1,000 higher on FanDuel.
- Kyle Pitts Sr.: Revamped role this season has him back on the fantasy radar — for the moment, anyway.
- John Parker Romo: Would be in the next section if Mooney were healthy.
Secondary Options
- Darnell Mooney: Was limited in practice and sat out on Friday; team indicated he will suit up. If he never had this injury, he would be above Romo, especially with McCloud being out.
- Tyler Allgeier: Gets the ball when he is on the field. Could easily start for 10 other teams in the league.
- Atlanta DST: This unit looks legit, particularly the defensive secondary. Tonight will be a true test on the road against the pass-heavy 49ers.
Lottery Tickets
- San Francisco DST: Too many injuries to be in the secondary section; still a viable click for the single-game contests.
- Jake Tonges: Will be getting less attention with Kittle back, both from Atlanta and Jones. Shanahan could press this potential oversight at an opportune moment.
- Brian Robinson Jr.: More of a contingency play if something befalls McCaffrey in-game. Both can be played together, though for perspective, 24 lineups out of 5,000 had a 12% or higher ROI on DraftKings with this duo, and 21 of 5,000 cleared that threshold on FanDuel. Most lineups on each site had both players in the utility slot.
- Demarcus Robinson: Not particularly exciting; the early season suspension set him back.
- Casey Washington and Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Longshots for their respective teams; DFS impact is improbable, though far from impossible.
- Kyle Juszczyk: He is a $2,000 dart throw on both sites.
- Charlie Woerner: Unlikely to do much in this “Remember Me?!” spot.
- Skyy Moore and Isaac Guerendo: Moore is the lead kick returner, with Guerendo and Robinson sharing the secondary role.
- David Sills V: You will at least see him on the field for a couple dozen snaps; both of his targets this year came in Week 3.
- Jamal Agnew: Lead kickoff returner with cornerback Natrone Brooks and top punt returner. Hard to see a path to any offensive snaps.
- Teagan Quitoriano: TE3 for Atlanta; had only 17 targets in 23 games across three seasons for Houston; has not had an offensive opportunity with Atlanta yet.
- Luke Farrell, KhaDarel Hodge, Feleipe Franks, Malik Turner, Jordan Watkins and Nathan Carter: Only in an alternate universe.
