NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Falcons at Vikings (Sept. 14)

Tonight is an interesting matchup with a lot of uncertainty as both the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons are featuring young quarterbacks. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Falcons-Vikings Week 2 Sunday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

NFL Sunday Night Football Week 2 DFS Picks: Falcons-Vikings

Tonight we have a matchup between the quarterbacks from the 2024 College Football Championship game that saw the sign-stealing Michigan Wolverines best the Washington Huskies 34-13. Ultimately, 23 players from this game were selected in an NFL Draft, including three first-rounders from each school.

NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2: Michael Penix Jr.

Penix had injuries end each of his four seasons at the University of Indiana, going to Washington with 2019 Hoosiers offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer. Due to the pandemic, Penix had two years of eligibility he was able to use with the Huskies, leading the team to a 25-3 record as the starting quarterback. The many injuries to Penix had DeBoer keeping him in the pocket and not breaking containment unless absolutely necessary. The 25-year-old is pretty fast, though he appears slighter than his listed 6-foot-3, 220 pounds.

That mobility is going to be key since the Falcons missing four offensive linemen in right tackles Jack Nelson and Kaleb McGary, plus left tackles Storm Norton and Tyrone Wheatley Jr. This lack of depth is already causing issues with the running game, and against a defense as fierce as Minnesota’s, Penix is going to face a lot of pressure plays. He did have six carries for 21 yards and a touchdown last week, which is more of a bonus than a go-forward baseline projection.

The Vikings are going to be even tougher than the Buccaneers. Looking at the free OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Penix has -110 odds on over 8.5 rushing yards, -110 for his over 224.5 passing yards prop and -110 for over 0.5 passing touchdowns.

By all metrics, tonight will be a long row to hoe for Penix to top his 298 passing yards from Week 1 against Tampa. The Minnesota defense was able to rattle second-year signal-caller Caleb Williams in primetime, and Penix has only a fraction of that NFL experience.

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Atlanta Falcons Positional Preview

Running Back | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

On Sunday, both Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson had 24 yards on 10 and 12 carries. Things are shaping up to be equally as bleak with the Vikings putting the clamps on D’Andre Swift Monday, holding the veteran to 53 yards on 17 carries.

Tonight the Stokastic NFL stat projections have Robinson for 11.64 carries and 65.93 yards, plus 6.3 targets for 3.32 receptions and another 33.81 yards, with a 70% probability of scoring a touchdown. Last week he saved his fantasy backers by bringing in six of seven targets for 100 yards on the nose and a touchdown.

Allgeier is slated for 6.42 totes, 30.27 yards and a 20% touchdown probability. On a fun note, Penix is projected for 6.18 carries, and the over on 5.5 is currently +550 at Hard Rock. Keep in mind that his under on 3.5 carries is listed at -150 on several major operators, though kneeldowns do count for this wager — and stranger things have happened, even with the Falcons 3.5-point road dogs.

While this felt like more of a shared backfield than expected when looking at the rushing opportunities, Allgeier played on just 19 snaps (25%), compared to the 63 (83%) for Robinson. If the line continues to be as bad as expected, Robinson will be more active in the short passing game, which is a terrific avenue for DFS production.

Wide Receiver | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Drake London hurt his shoulder on Sunday, though he was a full participant in Friday’s practice and the budding star does not have an injury designation. Veteran Darnell Mooney (shoulder) missed the opener, though he too was a full go on Friday and should be in the starting lineup. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

Ray-Ray McCloud will be the WR3 with KhaDarel Hodge and David Sills V fading back to irrelevance. Casey Washington led the receivers in snap share at 95%, and he was second among the wideouts with six targets, while McCloud had five. Washington was a sixth-round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, having spent five seasons at Illinois, totaling 1,508 yards on 122 receptions over 55 games. He was the main recipient of playing time with Mooney on the sidelines, though it would not be a surprise if he were inactive tonight.

Last season, it was London (157 targets), Mooney (107) and McCloud (87) who were the top three options in the passing game. That is likely to continue in a similar proportion going forward, though we could see tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. (74) be more utilized.

Tight End | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Yes, it has been wish casting for the last few years in the fantasy world, hoping that Pitts would be able to recapture the magic that earned him Pro Bowl honors as a rookie. Eight targets in Week 1 were promising, though who knows how sticky this may be, and the fifth-year veteran could lose out on snaps to Charlie Woerner since he is a superior blocker, and given the offensive line woes, it will be interesting to see how head coach Raheem Morris handles things tonight.

Kicker | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Younghoe Koo has been left in Atlanta, with the Falcons signing John Parker Romo to the practice squad and then elevating him for Sunday Night Football. Koo made the Pro Bowl in 2020, his first year as a full-timer for the Falcons. In his four full seasons, he was solid with a 90.1% success rate on 142 field goals. Koo dealt with a hip issue for part of last year, leading to him missing the last three games after being placed on the injured reserve. He struggled, posting a career-low 73.5% conversion rate, and after a doink-make and an actual miss on Sunday, the team is choosing to go in a different direction.

Romo played for three colleges, serving as the kickoff specialist for Central Arkansas and Tulsa, finally getting a starting gig in his third year with Virginia Tech. The football nomad has been in New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, Minnesota, New England and now Atlanta. In 2023 he was the All-XFL kicker, making 17 of 19 field goal attempts, and for a moment he held the league record with a 57-yard field goal, which was later broken by a 59-yarder.

Last year he saw action in four games with the Vikings as an injury replacement, making 11 of 12 field goals, including his lone attempt from 50-plus yards.

Defense | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Atlanta had one sack in the opener, and last year the team was ahead of only New England (28) with 31 quarterback takedowns. The Falcons were square in the middle of the league with 18 combined takeaways, and it would not be a surprise if they got one from the rookie quarterback tonight, along with a sack or two.

NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2: Justin Jefferson

There were only 20 total passing attempts, though seven went to Justin Jefferson. He made them count, catching four for 44 yards, along with a fourth quarter touchdown. Jordan Addison still has two games left on his suspension, so that means prominent playing time for Jalen Nailor, who was just behind Jefferson’s 98% snap share at 88%. The fourth-year wideout had six touchdowns last season on just 43 targets. He is only keeping the spot warm for Addison, and depending on the game flow, he could cede more action to veteran Adam Thielen, whom the Vikings acquired in a late-preseason trade with the Carolina Panthers.

Thielen was on the field for 57% of the action, seeing one of the 20 targets in the passing game. Expect a couple more looks tonight, but this is Jefferson’s show.

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Minnesota Vikings Positional Preview

Quarterback | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

McCarthy had a pair of three-and-out series in the first quarter and two more in the second, along with a seven-play, 67-yard drive that resulted in a 31-yard field goal. Then he had a two-play drive at the end of the half that earned the team 3 more points after McCarthy connected with Nailor for 41 yards.

The third quarter was rough, as McCarthy tossed an interception on the first drive then presided over two more three-and-out efforts. Everything came up roses in the final frame, though it is trite to say “it all just clicked” for the rookie.

Overall, he was sacked three times, and his third quarter interception resulted in a 74-yard pick-6 for Nahshon Wright. He had two carries for 25 yards, including a 14-yard touchdown just before the two-minute warning. It was the best of times and the worst of times, with everything in between. This is the roller coaster when counting on first-year starting quarterbacks.

Running Back | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Because there were so many short series, it was hard to tell just how Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason splitting the backfield, if it was by situation or drive. Mason had two more snaps while seeing 15 carries for 68 yards against the eight for 23 Jones tallied.

That is not much of a surprise since Mason is younger and the better runner, which dovetails with the expectation that he will get more work between the 20s and Jones will see the bulk of the high-leverage and passing-down spots.

Mason converted his lone target for a 7-yard reception, but this is not a strength. Last year with San Francisco, playing in 12 games and starting six, he had only 14 targets for 11 catches and 91 yards.

Jones brought in all three of his opportunities, earning 44 yards and a score.

Salary, of course, is a huge factor, and that makes these players closer, with Mason receiving a $2,600 (37%) discount on FanDuel and providing $1,600 (27%) of savings on DraftKings.

Tight End | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

T.J. Hockenson was on the field for 80% of the snaps, getting four targets. He benefits from Addison’s absence, and with more pass attempts for McCarthy, expecting something north of six looks is appropriate.

Josh Oliver was on the field for nearly half the offensive action, and the Vikings used two-tight end formations around 25% of the game. He had one target, while rookie Ben Yurosek did not have any looks on his 10 offensive plays.

Kicker | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

In the opener, Will Reichard made all three of his kicks, with 31- and 59-yard field goals getting Minnesota on the scoreboard in the first half. The second-year footer also made his lone PAT, with the Vikings going for 2 twice and converting once. Keep in mind that Reichard was a sixth-round selection last year out of Alabama and he did make 8 of 11 (72.7%) of his attempts from beyond 50 yards.

Defense | Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Last season, the Vikings made longtime fans harken back to the Purple People Eater days with 49 sacks, ranking fourth while collecting a league-leading 33 takeaways. Penix has a 3.29% sack rate in his limited playing time, throwing three interceptions on 149 career attempts.

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Here’s a quick look at how the simulator optimizes a Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS lineup with 10% randomness for Sunday Night Football Week 2 DFS on DraftKings. Want to start building smarter lineups? Subscribe to our packages today and unlock the tools to boost your ROI like a seasoned pro!

NFL DFS Picks for Falcons-Vikings NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 2: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Falcons-Vikings

1. Bijan Robinson: Hard to ignore his strong Week 1 presence in the passing game.
2. Justin Jefferson: Best option in the player pool.
3. Drake London: Sounds like the shoulder is not an issue.
4. Michael Penix Jr.: Gets a nod over his fellow field general.
5. J.J. McCarthy: Did not need to run much in college, but is capable.
6. Jordan Mason: Surprisingly has the best fantasy point-per-dollar ratio of the core options, though he will need a touchdown to realize that potential. Aside from reaching pay dirt, he could get fourth quarter run if the Vikings take care of business in front of the hometown faithful.
7. John Parker Romo: Had three road games and one matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium last year when he was on the Vikings.
8. Aaron Jones Sr.: Salary premium makes him a tougher click if this is a 50/50 backfield.
9. Will Reichard: Did not even come close to cracking the top 10 on Monday’s rankings, but there are no true discount dandies tonight.
10. T.J Hockenson: Feed the Hock!

Secondary Options

1. Minnesota D/ST: The Atlanta offensive line is really that bad.
2. Kyle Pitts Sr.: We all want to believe.
3. Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III: Will Penix have time to throw downfield, or will it be hot reads and dump-offs to Robinson? All of the key cogs are more than capable of seeing quick targets, so that still gives London the advantage. McCloud could see return work with Jamal Agnew (groin) out.
4. Adam Thielen: Yes, he was with the team for most of his career, but he has only had a couple weeks with McCarthy.
5. Jalen Nailor and Tyler Allgeier: The former gets the nod on DraftKings, the latter on FanDuel with the half-PPR scoring format.

Lottery Tickets

1. Atlanta D/ST: Needs the offense to keep pressure on Minnesota; if the Vikings have a multi-score lead, it will be harder to collect DFS defensive stats.
2. Josh Oliver and Charlie Woerner: Will we see the magic power of TE2s for primetime showdown tonight?!
3. Myles Price and Ty Chandler: Price returns punts and shares kickoff duties with Chandler; neither is particularly likely to see offensive snaps in a close game.
4. Tai Felton, Rondale Moore, Ben Yurosek, KhaDarel Hodge, Casey Washington, David Sills V, Nathan Carter, Xavier Scott and Tim Jones: Just say no!