Philadelphia (7-2) has a commanding lead in the NFC East, with Dallas (3-5-1) the closest competition. Detroit (6-3) is tied with Chicago (6-3) while Green Bay (5-3-1) lurks in the NFC North. Looking at the conference overall, it is the Eagles in first, the Seattle Seahawks (7-2) pending a tiebreaker and then the Lions.
Not only is this a crucial game for both teams, but the Eagles are also just 2.5-point home favorites in a game with a decent 46.5-point total. This means there is ample DFS strategy to consider. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Lions-Eagles Week 11 SNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
NFL Sunday Night Football Week 11 DFS Picks: Lions-Eagles
NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,800
FanDuel: $11,400
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 19.72
FanDuel: 16.05
Detroit is dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball, though the most recent transaction was placing tight end Sam LaPorta on the injured reserve due to back issues. Rookie Isaac TeSlaa (oblique) is questionable. Offensive tackles Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker were limited in practice over the last couple weeks, but each was able to answer the bell. The Detroit scheme may be able to survive one missing; however, if both are out, along with the already injured Miles Frazier, things get very thin.
Brock Wright and Ross Dwelley are fine as blockers and backup tight ends, though neither is going to cause opposing defenses any heartburn. The pressure will be on Amon-Ra St. Brown as he is likely to see a lot of cornerback Cooper DeJean, who has not quite been at the heights of last year, but still impactful. St. Brown will likely avoid DeJean when he moves to the outside, though that still leaves Quinyon Mitchell covering either St. Brown or Jameson Williams. The other Philadelphia cover corners have been below average, with both Adoree’ Jackson and Kelee Ringo not doing well in single coverage.
LaPorta is second on the team with 49 targets, though give Wright is at 11 and Dwelley got his first look last week, the wideouts are likely to absorb most of that. Surprisingly, LaPorta had only six red zone opportunities before landing on injured reserve, but he did have three touchdowns, 40 receptions and 489 yards.
St. Brown has all the bona fides, having earned Pro Bowl honors each of the last three seasons while landing on the First-Team All-NFL the last two years. He is phenomenal inside and outside, at all three levels and is dynamic enough to get an end around or jet sweep every couple of games. He is also seventh in the league with 77.0 receiving yards per game, fifth with 37 first downs and his eight touchdowns trail only Davante Adams, who has nine.
Williams has only 43 targets for 27 receptions, though eight were for at least 20 yards, and he also has four scores. Philadelphia leads the league, allowing just eight passing touchdown, which is tied with Denver. Four receivers put up 100-plus yards on the Eagles, though only two others topped 60 yards.
Kalif Raymond had eight targets in the last two games after getting healthy, though rookie Isaac TeSlaa had only two in the same timeframe.
Detroit Lions Positional Preview
Quarterback | Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11
Jared Goff is going to have his work cut out for him tonight, with the Philadelphia pass defense ranking in the top third of the league by most advanced metrics, though the team does not crack the top 5. Detroit, on the other hand, ranks in the top 5 for most categories, but being outdoors in 40-degree weather is a far cry from the cozy, climate-controlled atmosphere of Ford Field.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Goff is -115 for over 235.5 passing yards, +120 for over 0.5 rushing yards and +110 to throw two touchdowns. In 74 games as a starter for the Lions, Goff averaged just 3.5 rushing yards per game on 1.7 attempts.
Fortunately, Goff is second in the league with 20 aerial scores and just outside the top 10 with 248.3 passing yards per game, and he has suffered only three interceptions. Still, between the matchup, being outdoors and lack of rushing production, the four-time Pro Bowler is best employed in the flex slot tonight.
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Running Back | Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery settled into a 60/40 snap-share split, with Gibbs continuing to be the home run threat and Monty chugging along and contributing in all facets of the game. Across the last four matchups, Gibbs had 12 targets, with Montgomery seeing 10. In this stretch, Gibbs had 17, 17, nine and 15 carries, while Monty tallied four, 13, 11 and 15.
When it comes to touchdowns, Gibbs has a major edge, with Montgomery rushing for a solid five. His younger counterpart rushed for eight and added two on receptions. Gibbs had three multi-touchdown games, including three last Sunday in Washington and two against Tampa Bay in Week 7.
Last week Sione Vaki had his first offensive snap, and Craig Reynolds also stepped between the lines for one play. All told the non-dynamic duo backs have 10 total offensive snaps this season, earning six carries for 19 yards and no targets.
In summary, salaries are going to be the great neutralizer, with Montgomery $5,400 cheaper on DraftKings and presenting a $5,200 savings on FanDuel. Both backs can be employed on the same roster because of this salary disparity.
Kicker | Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11
After leading the league in both point-after-touchdown attempts and conversions as a rookie, Jake Bates is back atop those categories again this year. He slipped a little on his field goal accuracy from 89.7% on 29 attempts last year to just 75.0% on 16 tries this season. Three of his four misses were from 50-plus yards, including a 67-yard attempt in Baltimore at the end of the first half in Week 3, with his other two misses at home from 54 and 55 yards. Bates set the UFL record of 64 yards when he was on the Michigan Panthers, so the team does trust him with longer kicks.
Defense | Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11
Detroit is fourth in the league with 3.3 sacks per game and 12th with 1.3 takeaways. Philadelphia have ceded a league-low four turnovers and only one interception, though the Eagles allow nearly three sacks per game, despite a low-volume passing attack.
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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 11: Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,400
FanDuel: $13,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 21.61
FanDuel: 21.44
Surprisingly, only Lamar Jackson (288) topped 260 passing yards against Detroit this season, though the Lions allowed seven different signal-callers to have multi-touchdown games, including Jake Browning, J.J. McCarthy and Marcus Mariota.
Jalen Hurts has 16 passing touchdowns against only one interception, with seven multi-touchdown games across his nine appearances when including his rushing scores. The efficiency is phenomenal, though the overall volume is lacking, as he has only three games of more than 26 pass attempts.
Hurts is averaging a career-low 26.0 rushing yards per game as compared to his 44.8 per tilt during the last four seasons. Overall, Philadelphia is in the bottom quartile at just 57.6 plays per game, with a tick shy of 27 pass attempts and around 28 rushing attempts.
Philadelphia Eagles Positional Preview
Running Back | Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11
Saquon Barkley was solid last week with 101 combined yards on 22 carries and three catches, though he did not reach pay dirt. The soon-to-be 29-year-old is well below his production from last year, but he still is a breakaway threat at any time. Barkley is 17th in the league with 86.6 combined rushing and receiving yards per game, also ranking 17th with his six total touchdowns.
Only Quinshon Judkins (21/82/1) and Aaron Jones Sr. (9/78/0) rushed for more than 66 yards against Detroit this season, and four backs put up 69-plus combined yards on the Lions. Tank Bigsby looks to move ahead of Will Shipley in the running game, though he still gives way to the second-year back in passing situations.
Overall, every running back loses out to Hurts in under the shadow of the goalpost, and under closer inspection for the passing game, Barkley has 31 targets, Shipley six and Bigsby one. However, it is worth noting that Shipley did have two targets on Monday Night Football.
Be sure to tune into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Wide Receivers | Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11
Devonta Smith out-targeted A.J. Brown in three of the last four games, with a 33 to 26 advantage. Brown was vocal about his displeasure for the conservative offense, and in a previously unthinkable situation, the team did listen to offers at the trade deadline. There is a clip on Twitter this week of Brown playing Madden against streamer Janky Rondo and saying to the viewers “If you got me on fantasy man, get rid of me.” There are the “squeaky wheel” situations that everyone is familiar with, though the overall frustration with the conservative play calling and Hurts not taking chances spread to more of the locker room. New offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo and head coach Nick Sirianni have their work cut out for them to improve the overall morale of the team as it tries to make another Super Bowl run.
After Smith and Brown, former Washington Commander Jahan Dotson is the third wideout, though he has just 15 targets this season. Depending on game flow, he can be on the field for anywhere from 50% to 70% of the action, which is half the battle for finding viable single-game players who are worthy of landing on rosters. The other wideouts combined for five targets this season, four of which went to John Metchie III, who is now with the New York Jets.
Tight End | Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11
Dallas Goedert is third on the team with 45 targets, and while he caught 34 for 332 yards, it is the seven touchdowns that are buoying his fantasy prospects and good enough for 10th on the leaderboard. This is clearly an outlier, with Goedert scoring eight touchdowns in 36 games over in the three preceding seasons.
Grant Calcaterra and former Indianapolis Colt Kylen Granson round out the viable tight end options, though Granson’s last target was in Week 2 and Calcaterra got two of his eight over the last four games. Cameron Latu may be on the field for a handful of snaps if active, though the rookie has not yet been targeted.
Kicker | Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11
Jake Elliott missed only two field goal attempts this season, which is great … right?! Well, not so much when you only have 10 total attempts and both those misses occurred in the last three games. Elliott is just two seasons removed from being the All-NFL Second-Team kicker, though he converted on just 78% of his field goals since receiving that honor.
Defense | Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11
The Lions suffer only two sacks per game, which is about the same for the Philly defense. On the turnover front, the Eagles are forcing only one per game, while Detroit allows the fourth fewest with only three interceptions and three fumbles lost.
NFL DFS Picks for Lions-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 11: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Lions-Eagles
- Jalen Hurts: Hurts so Good!
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: Stellar in all aspects of his craft.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: Dynamic, but it comes with a hefty premium.
- Saquon Barkley: Far from washed after his epic season; he is a casualty of the conservative offense.
- Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown: Smith is $400 higher on DraftKings and $400 lower on FanDuel.
- David Montgomery: Enjoy the salary savings; he is very cash game (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) viable.
- Jake Bates: Discounted projectable production.
- Jameson Williams: Pedestrian volume, though it only takes one big play.
- Jared Goff: Best employed in the flex/utility slot.
- Jake Elliott: Familiar with the vagaries of kicking at Lincoln Financial Field.
Secondary Options
- Dallas Goedert: Hard, though not impossible, for touchdown production to continue.
- Brock Wright: Fan and locker room favorite; cheap enough to consider in any roster construction.
- Kalif Raymond: Likely to maintain a three- to four-target baseline with LaPorta out.
Lottery Tickets
- Will Shipley and Tank Bigsby: Need to luck into a touchdown or have something befall Barkley early. Both return kickoffs.
- Philadelphia DST: Homefield advantage.
- Jahan Dotson: Needs to catch lightning in a bottle or a touchdown; also returns punts.
- Detroit DST: Meh.
- Ross Dwelley and Grant Calcaterra: TE2 who will at least be on the field.
- Craig Reynolds, Jacob Saylors and Sione Vaki: Part-time kickoff returners for Detroit, depending on who is active.
- Kylen Granson, Tom Kennedy, Xavier Gipson, Darius Cooper and Jackson Meeks: This tier is cheeks.
