Pittsburgh is 5-3 and two games ahead of Baltimore for the AFC North title. Los Angeles won the last two games and three of the last four, earning a 6-3 record, needing a win tonight to close the gap on Denver (8-2) and stay ahead of Kansas City (5-4).
Tonight projects to be a close game, with the Chargers favored by a field goal at home. This means there is ample DFS strategy to consider. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Steelers-Chargers Week 10 SNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Cali.
NFL Sunday Night Football Week 10 DFS Picks: Steelers-Chargers
NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10: Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $8,400
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 16.02
FanDuel: 12.31
Jaylen Warren has firm control of the lead role for the Pittsburgh backfield this season. Over the last month, he settled into around a 65% snap-share with Kenneth Gainwell just under 40%. Rookie Kaleb Johnson did get on the field for five offensive plays last Sunday, though he had not stepped between the lines since the 23-9 Week 6 victory against Cleveland.
In the last four games, Warren averaged 14.0 carries for 68.0 yards, turning 12 targets into 10 receptions for 51 yards. He had a pair of rushing touchdowns in this stretch, along with nine red zone opportunities. Gainwell averaged 4.3 carries for 16.5 yards, getting 15 targets for 14 receptions and 54 yards, with one red zone look.
Both backs have appropriate salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel, though the savings for Gainwell are not particularly enthralling given his low-volume, low-leverage touches.
Last year the Steelers averaged 62.3 plays per game, which was in the middle of the pack. This season they are at 55.6 per game, which is the second-lowest rate. That should be no surprise with Aaron Rodgers’ love of taking the play clock down to a few seconds most snaps. For reference, the New York Jets averaged 59.4 plays per game, ahead of Carolina and Jacksonville, which were tied at 58.4 plays.
Pittsburgh Steelers Positional Preview
Quarterback | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
Rodgers is 21st in the league with 211.5 passing yards per game, ranking ninth at a 103.1 passer rating, though he slides back to 20th with a 52.5 QBR. The future Hall of Famer is fourth with 17 aerial scores this year, being intercepted a reasonable five times. In the last four games, as the Steelers were pushed by game flow, Rodgers threw at least 30 passes in each appearance, averaging 33.8 per game.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Rodgers is -113 for over 216.5 passing yards, -115 for more than 1.5 rushing yards and +110 to toss at least two touchdowns. Keep in mind that Rodgers had 19 or fewer fantasy points in six of his eight outings and he did not top 250 passing yards yet this year, despite a pair of four touchdown games.
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Wide Receiver | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
DK Metcalf is on the field for nearly 90% of the offensive action, and he has a 20.3% target share. His 47 targets lead the team while dominating the wideouts (51%). Metcalf has five touchdowns, and he is unlikely to have another dud like last Sunday, when he had just two receptions for 6 yards on four targets against Indianapolis.
After missing two weeks, Calvin Austin III had six targets in each of the last two games, which is one more than Metcalf. Roman Wilson had seven opportunities in these games, while the rest of the wide receivers have two combined targets since the Week 5 bye.
Austin is a differentiation option, projecting to be on around 20% of all tournament lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel, with a $6,200 cap hit on both sites. Wilson is a potential discount dandy on DraftKings ($2,000, 6.9%), but he has less appeal on FanDuel ($3,400, 4.8%) given the half-PPR scoring format.
Tight End | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
Three’s a crowd, and that is the best way to summarize the tight end trifecta for the Steelers. Jonnu Smith (36.0 plays) and Darnell Washington (38.3 plays) had the playing time advantage over Pat Freiermuth (28.5 plays) across the last four games. However, Freiermuth (15) closed the gap when it comes to targets (Smith 18, Washington 16), and he had three touchdowns as well.
This group is separated by just $400 on DraftKings, though things are a little more dispersed on FanDuel as Smith ($4,400) looks the most appealing, Freiermuth ($5,400) brings differentiation with half the projected rostership of Smith and Washington ($3,600) is the intriguing salary saver.
There are so many moving parts for this position, it is worth tuning into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Kicker | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
Chris Boswell has been stellar this season, converting on 6 of 7 (86%) of his field goals from 50-plus yards, carrying forth the form that earned him First-Team All-NFL honors last year. Most of his work is done outdoors in the AFC North, so kicking in SoFi Stadium tonight is going to be a luxury for the 11-year veteran.
Defense | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
Pittsburgh is third in the league with 27 sacks, while the Chargers are struggling with offensive line injuries, leading to 3.2 sacks per tilt. The Steelers are second in the league with 16 takeaways, and Los Angeles suffers 1.3 turnovers per game.
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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 10: Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,600
FanDuel: $13,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 20.94
FanDuel: 20.76
It should be no surprise that Justin Herbert has the highest salary and median fantasy point projection for Sunday Night Football. Though the team has seemingly countless injuries to the offensive line, including losing tackle Joe Alt for the season, Herbert is averaging 265.6 passing yards per game, which is well above his 227.6 from last year.
Herbert is second in the league with 18 touchdown passes, and while his eight interceptions are already more than last year, the uptick in volume and yardage offsets those miscues from a fantasy perspective. In an unexpected twist, Herbert is third in the league for passing yards per game, trailing leader Matthew Stafford by less than 3 yards per tilt. He also has three games of 300-plus passing yards, including 420 yards in the wild game against Indianapolis.
Though he has just one rushing touchdown, Herbert has 30-plus rushing yards in six games, which should help him against the Pittsburgh pass pressure.
Los Angeles Chargers Positional Preview
Running Back | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
Rookie Omarion Hampton has been out since injuring his ankle in Week 5, and his return was pushed out beyond Thanksgiving. Najee Harris was lost for the season in Week 3, so second-year back Kamani Vidal is the last man standing. Vidal is not particularly fast or shifty, and he does not contribute much in the passing game, with 12 targets in his four starts.
Journeyman Hassan Haskins was backing him up, but he is on the injured reserve with a hamstring issue. That elevated Jaret Patterson into the backup role, though today will be just his fourth game since joining the Chargers last season. Patterson saw action in 20 games across two seasons with Washington as a UDFA, bouncing between the Washington and Los Angeles practice squads in 2023, though not getting in any games for either franchise.
Most of Patterson’s work was during the fourth quarter of the last two games with the Chargers comfortably in control. He did not see any targets yet this season, and he had only 11 in his time with the Commanders. In his three seasons in the MAC for the University of Buffalo, he had only 20 receptions and none his final year, despite rushing for over 1,000 yards each season and scoring 52 touchdowns.
In summary, Vidal is a desirable option on both DraftKings ($8,800, 29.8%) and FanDuel ($10,600, 31.3%), even though he has limited work in the passing game. Patterson is not particularly appealing on either site, but he is in play for those making 20-plus lineups on FanDuel ($4,800, 5.5%) and DraftKings ($2,800, 4.6%).
Wide Receivers | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
Ten different wideouts put up 85-plus yards against Pittsburgh this season, with six topping the century mark. Tight ends made hay as well with Tucker Kraft (9 targets for 7/143/2), Hunter Henry (11 targets for 8/90/2) and rookie Harold Fannin Jr. (10 targets for 7/81/0) all crushing.
On Sunday, Los Angeles held serve against Tennessee. In Week 8, it was a 37-10 drubbing of Minnesota, so it is hard to be concerned with Kennan Allen‘s 37% and 25% snap shares in these two games. Keep in mind that while the 27-20 victory looked close on paper in Tennessee, the Titans had a pick-6 and a punt return for a touchdown in the first quarter, while the offense managed two field goals and just over 200 combined yards.
Things are a little crowded for the Chargers with Quentin Johnston putting it all together on the outside, Allen working the slot and second-year sensation Ladd McConkey shaking off a slow start and beginning to hum.
The Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have McConkey for 8.3 targets, Johnston for 6.5 and Allen for 6.7 looks. Factoring in salary on DraftKings, none of the trio stands out as a must-play, though McConkey has a hefty $12,200 cap hit on FanDuel, with Johnston offering a $3,000 savings and Allen providing a $4,000 discount.
Tight End | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
Rookie Oronde Gadsden II has been outstanding, racking up 38 targets in his seven appearances. He had 22 looks over his last four games, posting 68 or more yards in each outing, with three touchdowns. He should be on the field for nearly 80% of the offensive sets with Tucker Fisk and Tyler Conklin serving as the blocking tight end on around half of the snaps. Will Dissly was not active in Week 8, and last Sunday he was out due to an illness. He is not on the injury report tonight, though he or Conklin may end up on the inactive list. Over the last four games, non-Gadsden tight ends had a combined four targets.
Kicker | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
While Cameron Dicker has just two attempts from 50-plus yards, he made them both, and in the two preceding seasons, he was 16 of 20. In total this year, he converted on 20 of 21 (95%) field goal attempts and now holds the all-time accuracy record of 94.1% for his career.
Defense | Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10
There is not much to see here with Los Angeles having a mediocre eight takeaways, while the conservative nature of Rodgers and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith have helped limit turnovers to a scant seven. The Steelers allow around two sacks per game, with the Chargers averaging just shy of three quarterback takedowns per tilt.
NFL DFS Picks for Steelers-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 10: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Steelers-Chargers
- Justin Herbert: Captain, my Captain!
- Jaylen Warren: Enough of a dual threat to slot in as the second-best play.
- Oronde Gadsden II: Rookie is popping in the models from a fantasy point-per-dollar perspective, with a true ceiling outcome in play.
- Aaron Rodgers: Steady selection, though everything depends on his 42-year-old arm.
- Ladd McConkey: Definitely a budget buster on FanDuel.
- Chris Boswell: Excellent volume, though keep in mind that field goal opportunities can be like flirting with a fickle mistress.
- Cameron Dicker: If there were bonus points for nicknames, Dicker the Kicker would be a touch ahead of Boswell.
- Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston: It will be fun to see how the field decides to handle all of the Los Angeles pass-catchers.
- Kimani Vidal: Fair salary for the one-dimensional runner.
- Calvin Austin III: More desirable on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring format.
Secondary Options
- Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington: All are in play; let personal preference be your guide.
- Los Angeles DST: Homefield advantage.
- Pittsburgh DST: Sacks and takeaways count for DFS, plus there is no penalty for yards allowed.
Lottery Tickets
- Kenneth Gainwell: Needs something to befall Warren or a fortuitous touchdown in order to be a DFS difference maker.
- Roman Wilson and Tre’ Harris: Far from extreme values, but cheap and each should get a couple of targets for their respective teams.
- Jaret Patterson: Last player worthy of his own line; needs something to happen to Vidal or late-game mop-up duty.
- Kaleb Johnson, Connor Heyward and Ben Skowronek: Johnson and Skowronek run the risk of not being active, so be sure to confirm prior to kickoff. Johnson is mostly on special teams, but he has lost the kickoff return role.
- Tyler Conklin, Derius Davis, Tucker Fisk, Trey Sermon, Ke’Shawn Williams, Will Dissly and Trayveon Williams: Davis returns punts and kickoffs for the Chargers, with Lambert-Smith also getting kickoffs. K. Williams returns kickoffs with Gainwell and Johnson, and he is the main punt returner.
