NFL Super Bowl 58 DFS Picks: 49ers vs. Chiefs (February 11)

Oh, what a great matchup, with all sorts of storylines both on and off the field. Super Bowl 58, between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, is also a rematch of Super Bowl 54, and we know every man taking the field is going to be motivated, including players like Christian McCaffrey and Patrick Mahomes. Let’s dive into our NFL DFS picks for Super Bowl 58 between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Need more NFL DFS advice? Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NFL Super Bowl 58 DFS Picks: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58: Travis Kelce

The one-week break seemed to recharge Kelce — he saw 10, six and 11 targets over the last three games, totalling 262 yards and three touchdowns on 23 receptions. Yes, he will be dealing with linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, but he has serious chemistry with his quarterback, and this isn’t his first time in the big dance. He is a core NFL DFS building block.

This lineup, generated using our industry-leading lineup generator, demonstrates the optimality of a lineup that features Travis Kelce outside of the captain spot. If you’re interested in taking the lineup generator for a spin yourself, sign up for Stokastic’s premium tools today! The tool currently supports NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA DFS contests.

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Kansas City Chiefs Positional Previews

Quarterback | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Patrick Mahomes is once again in the Super Bowl. The reigning NFL and Super Bowl MVP ended up leading his team to Las Vegas by winning his first two postseason road games. That is just wild to think about: until this year, he had never seen action in a playoff game in an enemy stadium.

The Kansas City offense hasn’t had to do the heavy lifting this year, which is a good thing. Most teams would love a great defense, but this has worked out especially well for the Chiefs, who have been searching for a WR2 all season. There are essentially three skill position players who have carried the team, and we’ll talk about each in the next sections.

Mahomes is a better “flex” option and far from a must-play. Aside from a Week 7 drubbing of the Los Angeles Chargers, where Mahomes notched 424 yards and four touchdowns, he has not topped 22 fantasy points since Week 3. Heck, in his last eight games, including the three playoff matchups, he has just 10 touchdowns. While he has tossed one in every appearance, outside of Week 8, he hasn’t done much else. The efficiency is there, and he has actually been okay adding a couple dozen rushing yards, but more often than not, the “Oh My God!” games have been minimal from him.

In the postseason, Mahomes is 14-3 with 39 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. He hasn’t thrown a pick in his last six postseason games.

Running Back | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

Isiah Pacheco has been the key reason that the Kansas City offense continues to chug along, and in their three playoff games, he has 24, 15 and 24 carries. Though he has just six targets in the postseason, he has a rushing touchdown in each game. We know he is a capable receiver, and he boasts the fourth most targets on the team, but there just hasn’t been a reason to target him out of the backfield. That is likely to change on Sunday against a tough San Francisco defense, so we should consider Pacheco a core building block in both tournaments and “cash” games (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.).

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is likely good for a couple of carries and a target, none of which will be high-leverage situations. Heck, if Jerick McKinnon were available, CEH would be a complete afterthought outside of an unfortunate injury taking out Pacheco in-game. He is in play on DraftKings at $1,200, but just know that the Stokastic NFL DFS projections have him for a mere 2.62 fantasy points.

Back to McKinnon, he was a limited participant in practice over the last couple of days after getting injured in Week 15. If he is active, there is a decent chance that Edwards-Helaire is inactive as LaMical Perine would get the nod as the special-teamer. If McKinnon is active, he is at the $200 minimum salary on DraftKings and would become the punt du jour for “cash games” with 1.5 projected touches. Things are a little trickier on FanDuel ($6,000), but the thought would be he is mostly healthy if the Chiefs activate him, which could mean a possible red-zone look. McKinnon’s status is the one remaining variable unless someone gets food poisoning on Saturday night.

Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

First, the bad news: Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Justyn Ross and Mecole Hardman Jr. were the intended targets on nearly half of Mahomes’ career-high 14 interceptions this season. The good news: Moore is out with an injury, Toney is highly unlikely to see the field and Ross and Hardman were on the field in the AFC Championship Game for three and one snaps when the team was running out the clock.

The Chiefs featured Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson on the field for 83% and 44% of the offensive plays, respectively. Though they each had only two targets, being on the field in the Super Bowl is more than half the battle. Richie James Jr. played on 17 (21%) of the snaps and saw one target. Considering his $400 salary on DraftKings, he is an extreme punt option, but it would be a shock if he had more than one or two targets. He is the main punt returner, so there is always a chance that lightning could strike — but he offers little other than providing cap relief and about a dozen routes run.

Rookie Rashee Rice has been a key player who showed improvement nearly every week, and he became a trusted contributor after the Week 10 bye. He was instrumental in the Wild Card round, bringing in eight of his 12 targets for 130 yards and a score. In his last nine outings, he had 100-plus yards or a touchdown five times and saw nine-plus targets in all but two of those games.

Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

We already talked about Travis Kelce. He should be in a considerable amount of your NFL DFS lineups this week, and you can scroll up for my thoughts on him.

Noah Gray is likely to be on the field for around half of the snaps, and while he is the “blocking” tight end, he has seen nine postseason targets, including five last week, when the flotsam and jetsam wideouts were relegated to the sidelines. He is in play on DraftKings ($1,800), where he has a decent chance to outproduce Edwards-Helaire, and on FanDuel ($5,500), where he is just above the minimum salary, he should be in the player pool for anyone crafting 10 or more lineups.

Blake Bell will be on the field, but we have not seen him with many “gadget” plays, which makes sense as he is far removed from his days as “The Belldozer” at Oklahoma, where he would line up at quarterback in the red zone and run for scores. He was not active in the final two playoff games last year, but for those who remember, he did have one reception for nine yards against San Francisco in Super Bowl 54. Buying a scratch-off ticket has a better chance of bringing a return than employing him in the DFS world. If Toney is inactive as expected, Hardman would be likelier to draw a red-zone look — which could even be his only appearance on the field. Such is the way with two top-heavy lineups doing battle in a game for all the glory.

Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

Harrison Butker is no stranger to the postseason: this will be his 19th appearance in the playoffs. Allegiant Stadium is favorable for kickers, as it’s indoors and features a slight elevation boost at 2,000 feet above sea level. In his 18 prior playoff games, Butker has converted five of six kicks from 50-plus yards, and he has nailed seven of nine from between 40 and 49 yards. Though he has never been nominated to the Pro Bowl, he has an excellent 89.1% career conversion rate on field goals in the regular season.

Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

In his five career postseason appearances, Purdy had not thrown an interception until facing the Lions two weeks ago, and he has been sacked a scant seven times in total.

Kansas City sacked Tua Tagovailoa twice in the Wild Card round and then tallied four takedowns of Lamar Jackson in the penultimate game of the season. This unit has been staunch, allowing just one aerial score in each of the three postseason tilts and allowing an average of just 13.3 points against.

Bonus Super Bowl 58 Player Prop

While Isiah Pacheco’s last four meaningful games have him with rushing lines of 24/68/1, 15/97/1, 24/89/1 and 18/130, OddsShopper has identified a market inefficiency on the current odds of +110 for under 67.5 rushing yards on Caesars Sportsbook, which is currently the only “plus” money line available on this wager. That gives it a positive 5% expected ROI on essentially a coin-flip milestone.

This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets. The next best odds at most books are down to -110, which is easily a 2% to 3% drop in the expected value of this wager.

Per the true odds of -131 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a solid 5% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line, for essentially a coinflip wager on this milestone. Speaking of coins, the toss to determine possession at the start of the game is a -104 wager, so by that metric, this Pacheco prop has inherent value.

NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58: Christian McCaffrey

Currently, McCaffrey projects to be in the multiplier slot 17.6% of the time on DraftKings and 24.6% on FanDuel while landing in the utility slot 50.1% and 31.7% of the time. This makes for an interesting strategy, since leaving him off lineups will be a tremendous leverage point. There is not much else to say about the best running back in the league over the last two combined seasons that has not already been said. On a fun note, if San Francisco wins, he will join his father as the only McCaffreys to win a Super Bowl ring. His old man earned three, including one with the 49ers.

The sports wagering markets have landed on 89 to 91 rushing yards as the most likely total for McCaffrey. Check out OddsShopper to see how the markets move closer to the game.

San Francisco 49ers Positional Previews

Quarterback | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

Brock Purdy has been on a rocket ship for the last two years, going from Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 draft to being the starting quarterback for a Super Bowl squad. While he has been tagged as a “game manager,” that isn’t a fair assessment, since he was a legitimate MVP candidate over the final third of the season before passing that baton to Lamar Jackson in a Week 16 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Yes, he is at the helm of an offense that has All-Pros at every skill position along with a terrific offensive coach, but the youngster has definitely earned his stripes. In the three meaningful games since his Week 16 meltdown, he has thrown only one interception over 98 pass attempts. In the NFC Championship, he also showed moxie by rushing for 48 yards on five carries. Though he is down the list of fantasy options for this game, he is far from irrelevant.

Running Back | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

Again, we already walked through why you need to make Christian McCaffrey a core NFL DFS building block for Super Bowl 58. You can scroll up for my thoughts about him.

Eli Mitchell and Jordan Mason each saw the field for one offensive play in the Divisional Round, and Mitchell had six snaps in the NFC Championship Game. Those all came after the game was decided as the 49ers looked to protect McCaffrey after a tough play late in the game. It would be a shock for either to get a touch, but we could see them on the field once or twice.

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk played on 26 and 40 snaps in each of the last two games, with three targets in the last affair. Yes, he caught all three of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 54, but those were his only postseason looks in the three 2020 games. In the seven playoff games since then, he has seven targets and five carries. Keep in mind that since his fortuitous score, which was called out in this same article back then, McCaffrey has joined the team, and the dynamic duo at the wide receiver position have each elevated their games.

Wide Receiver | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

Deebo Samuel has dealt with injuries over the last two seasons, but keep in mind he was an All-Pro in 2021. The addition of McCaffrey has cut down on his red zone touches, but the 49ers know he is still a playmaker who needs to get the ball. We should see Samuel with a couple carries and a handful of targets, which has him firmly in play as a DFS option. The team has also used him as a kick returner in big games, so it is comforting to know that coach Kyle Shanahan is going to scheme him specific opportunities.

Brandon Aiyuk was a second-team All-Pro this season , boasting a career-high 1,342 yards, as well as scoring seven times. His 17.9 yards per catch is a tremendous figure, but he also has shown a willingness to take on the dirty work of routes over the middle as well as blocking in the run game.

Jauan Jennings is the odd man out as there just isn’t enough of the pie to go around. He popped off for five catches and 61 yards against the Packers, but that was a bit of a wonky game, and now everyone should be healthy for San Francisco.

Tight End | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

In the two postseason tilts thus far, George Kittle has been on the field for all but four snaps. He was named to the Pro Bowl for the fifth time this season, along with All-Pro accolades for the second time. Clearly he is known throughout the NFL for his blocking ability, but DFS gamers are aware of his proclivity for destroying primetime slates.

While he has only 1,020 yards this season, in the Divisional matchup, he cruised to 81 yards and a touchdown, catching four of seven targets. In the NFC Championship Game, he brought in two of his three targets but for only 28 yards.

Charlie Woerner was on the field for 11 snaps and Brayden Willis was on the field for three. This season, Willis does not have a single look on 52 offensive plays, while Woerner has just one look per 100 snaps. The other three non-Kittle opportunities have gone to Injured veteran Ross Dwelley, who last saw the field in Week 13.

Kicker | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

Jake Moody had a solid rookie season, leading the league with 61 extra point attempts and 60 (98.4%) conversions. He was 6 of 9 from 40-plus yards, but had just one other miss among his 25 field goal attempts this season.

Defense | NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58

In the regular season, this crew ceded a scant 17.5 points per game, which was just one more than the league-leading Baltimore Ravens. San Francisco also was just three takeaways behind the Ravens. In their two playoff games, the 49ers sacked Jared Goff twice and recovered a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble in the NFC Championship game. In the Divisional Round, while this unit did not sack Jordan Love, they collected a pair of interceptions and forced two fumbles, both of which Green Bay was able to recover.

Mahomes avoided sacks in the first two rounds, but he was taken down twice by the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. In his 17 postseason appearances, he has been sacked just 32 ties, with only seven interceptions and none since the 27-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, back in January of 2022 during the AFC Championship Game.

NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl 58: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers-Chiefs

1. Christian McCaffrey: Yes, he is the player everyone wants to roster, which makes dropping him to the flex slot an interesting strategy. On DraftKings, where there is the salary multiplier, leaving him off one-third or more of rosters will create much-needed leverage in the gigantic tournament.
2. Travis Kelce: He’s back, baby!
3. Rashee Rice: Lofty ranking for a rookie, but the opportunity volume is there.
4. Patrick Mahomes: Sorry Mahomies, he has turned into a game manager. That said, he is also arguably the most dynamic passer in NFL history. While it would not be a shock to see him account for a trio of tuddies, he has done so only twice this season.
5. Isiah Pacheco: Gets some extra rest and is the third member of a top-heavy offense. Expect an uptick in the passing game and enjoy!
6. George Kittle: That little red questionable tag could keep some gamers away, but don’t worry about the toe issue — there are “medicines” for that.
7. Brock Purdy: Six multi-touchdown games over his last ten, including two with four scores with 21 total… Mahomes has four and “just” 14 scores.
8. Harrison Butker: Veteran of many spotlight games, no worries about jitters from him, plus you’ll need some salary relief. Keep tabs on OddsShopper to see if there are any good lines for him to kick over 1.5 field goals.
9. Deebo Samuel: He is the likeliest member of the 49ers to get a carry not named McCaffrey, but there are a lot of playmakers to battle from his own team in the red zone.
10. Brandon Aiyuk: One broken play or busted coverage could see him teleport his way into the end zone from 40-plus yards.

Secondary Options

1. Jake Moody: Rookie kickers are never a fun variable to tangle with literally everything on the line.
2. San Francisco D/ST: It will be interesting to see if they stick with a four-man rush or try and pressure Mahomes who is a wizard against the blitz.
3. Kansas City D/ST: Borderline core play, from a fantasy point per dollar perspective, which is just wild after the last few seasons.
4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Never seems to come through, but there is always hope of him catching a long one.
5. Justin Watson: Good to see coach Andy Reid dramatically scaling things down and sitting his motely crew of horrible wideouts.

Lottery Tickets

1. Noah Gray: Does not have the dynamism of the tertiary KC wideouts, but he could easily bring in three receptions for 30 yards and outscore the pass-catchers outside of Rice and Kelce.
2. Jauan Jennings: Salary is daunting when considering he projects for 2.3 targets.
3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Needs to find a lucky penny on his way to the stadium. If CEH is inactive and Jerick McKinnon returns to action, he would move above MVS and Watson on DraftKings and replace Edwards-Helaire on this line for FanDuel.
4. Richie James Jr: DraftKings discount dandy, over/under is 1.5 opportunities and the smart money is on the low side. Oh, and this is a “Remember Me?!” situation for him.
5. Kyle Juszczyk: Our best hope is that he “pretends” to block on a red zone play action and leaks out into the flat on the right side after Kittle and Aiyuk clear or drag the defenders out of the seam.
6. Mecole Hardman: Just one snap in the last game.
7. Eli Mitchell: Look to the under on his 1.5 carry prop.
8. Ray-Ray McCloud III: Could get a few routes, but targets are a different story. Could also lose out on kick returns to Samuel.
9. Charlie Woerner: Will at least be on the field and at the $200 minimum on DraftKings.
10. Chris Conley, Blake Bell, La’Mical Perine, Jordan Mason, Brayden Willis, Ronnie Bell, Justyn Ross and Kadarius Toney: If we lose to them, so be it.
11. BONUS BET: No need to get Fancy, just take the over on the Reba McEntire 90.5 seconds on the anthem props.

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