Buffalo (7-3) currently ranks second in the AFC East, trailing the New England Patriots (9-2). The Bills still are in the driver’s season for a Wild Card berth, though they do need to take care of business tonight. Houston won the last two games without quarterback C.J. Stroud. The team clawed back to a 5-5 record after beginning the season with three consecutive losses. The Texans are currently tied with Baltimore and Kansas City, and this trifecta hopes to catch Jacksonville (6-4) for the final AFC Wild Card slot.
This is an important game for each franchise, and the Bills are 6-point road favorites in a game with a 43.5-point game total. This means there is ample DFS strategy to consider. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Bills-Texans Week 12 TNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from NRG Stadium in Houston.
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 12 DFS Picks: Bills-Texans
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12: Josh Allen
Josh Allen
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,400
FanDuel: $13,600
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 22.23
FanDuel: 21.76
On Sunday, Josh Allen had three rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns for the second time in his career. He has eight other games with multiple rushing and passing touchdowns since entering the league in 2018. All told, the reigning NFL MVP had at least one rushing and one passing score in 48 of 120 regular season starts (40%), along with two career touchdown receptions for good measure.
Since Matthew Stafford threw for 245 yards in the opener, no other quarterback tossed for more than 222 yards against Houston, and six failed to cross over the 200-yard threshold. Conventional rules do not apply to Allen, though he is going to have to at least work for his aerial production, particularly with so many Buffalo pass-catchers ruled out for this game.
Allen is averaging 245.6 passing yards per game, which is a nearly a 12% increase over his 219.5 last year and slotting him just inside the top 10, ranking sixth with 18 passing scores. Though his seven interceptions are the ninth most in the league, his 35.1 rushing yards per game rank third among quarterbacks with at least seven starts, and he is third in the league at 10 rushing touchdowns. He projects to be on around 80% of all DraftKings lineups and is pushing towards a 90% rostership level on FanDuel.
Buffalo Bills Positional Preview
Running Back | Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12
James Cook III tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns last year, adding in two more through the air. He dropped off that pace this year with seven rushing scores and one touchdown reception, though he is second at 96.8 rushing yards per game, which is a massive jump from his 63.1 yards last year. Overall, his 115.8 yards from scrimmage per game rank in the top 5. Houston has not allowed any opposing running backs to reach 75 rushing yards in a single game, though eight had at least 55 yards.
In competitive games, Cook usually is on the field for around two-thirds of the offensive action, with Ty Johnson getting run between 30% and 40% of the time. Ray Davis is an afterthought with just 10 snaps in the last three games. He saw double-digit snaps in three games, but only one occasion occurred in the last eight.
Davis is unlikely to see much of a workload unless something happens to Cook early in the game or there is significant mop-up duty in the second half of a lopsided affair. Davis did have five targets in the last five games, with one receiving score. Johnson had eight targets in this timeframe, and he is usually good for a couple rushing attempts each week as well.
Fullback Reggie Gilliam usually plays between 20% and 30% of the snaps, depending on formations, though in his last 41 games, he had three carries and one target.
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Pass Catchers | Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12
Keon Coleman was inactive on Sunday for an internal disciplinary situation. The team already said he will not play tonight, which is interesting considering Curtis Samuel (who played on half the snaps last week) is out, as is Mecole Hardman, who made his Buffalo debut, logging four offensive snaps. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is out for a second consecutive game, which helps to consolidate the pass-catching options.
Of course, Allen tends to take whatever the defense gives him, as evidenced by seven different players seeing at least three targets last week. Four of those went to Samuel (3) and Hardman (1), though Elijah Moore could easily get those tonight if he is active after sitting last week.
Khalil Shakir leads the team with 61 targets, but that works out to just over a 20% target share, which is pretty pedestrian for a WR1. The Stokastic NFL statistical projections have Shakir earmarked for 5.2 targets, Joshua Palmer and Gabe Davis seeing 3.6, Tyrell Shavers and Moore trending towards 1.5 each, and Dawson Knox with 3.7 from the tight end position.
Davis saw his first on-field action with Buffalo on Sunday, having been released by Jacksonville this spring after a one-season stint marred by a torn PCL. Buffalo welcomed him back to the practice squad just prior to the start of the season, where he continued his injury rehabilitation efforts. He was on the field for 23 plays, catching three of his four targets for 40 yards. He at least has solid familiarity with the scheme and Allen, though his route tree is fairly limited. Still, with all the injuries and his reasonable salary on DraftKings ($3,800), he is one of the better discount dandies. It is a little tighter on FanDuel ($5,000), though savvy gamers will want to be above the field for tournaments.
Second-year man Shavers was a bright spot, turning his five targets into four catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. Keep in mind he was a UDFA after the 2023 NFL Draft, having played for three different colleges, starting with Alabama then Mississippi State. His final two seasons were with San Diego State, where he finally broke through as an actual receiving threat while being a MONSTER on special teams, including three blocked punts in his two seasons with the Aztecs.
It is important to remember that Knox and Kincaid are not directly competing for targets that often since it is the formation that tends to dictate which is on the field, with limited overlap. However, given there are so many pass-catchers injured and Knox playing 81% and 77% of the snaps in the two games without Kincaid, as compared to a 55% or so average when both are active, he is a solid option. However, his upside is, of course, tied to touchdowns, and he has just two red zone opportunities this season, which is the same as TE2 Jackson Hawes, while Kincaid has only five. EVERYONE is competing with Allen and Cook under the shadow of the goalposts.
Kicker | Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12
Matt Prater continues to chug along in his age-41 season with 19 NFL campaigns to his credit. He missed one of his two attempts from 50-plus yards this year, but he converted on all five between 40 and 49 yards, nailing 31 of 32 point-after-touchdown attempts.
Defense | Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12
The Texans’ offensive line woes continue, and the team allowed six sacks across the last three games, averaging 2.5 per tilt this season. Similarly, Buffalo records 2.6 sacks per game, with 1.3 takeaways. Houston suffered six interceptions while also losing three fumbles in 10 games.
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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 12: Nico Collins
Brock Bowers
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,400
FanDuel: $9,600
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.16
FanDuel: 14.68
Davis Mills was a third-round selection by Houston in the 2021 NFL Draft, and he started 26 games in his first two seasons. The last two years he played behind C.J. Stroud, seeing action in just 10 games. In his two starts this season, he attempted 45 and 41 passes, with another 30 coming in Week 9 after Stroud suffered his concussion. In the six games prior to his injury, Stroud averaged 34.2 pass attempts, so it is good to see the offense did not dramatically change with the quarterbacks.
Mills averaged just over 280 passing yards in his two starts, with aerial scores and one interception. He also had five carries for 34 yards and a touchdown, which at least is a competent baseline.
Buffalo has not faced many top quarterbacks this season, holding Lamar Jackson to 209 yards in the opener, Baker Mayfield to 173 last week, and Drake Maye posted a season high of 273 yards in Week 5. Michael Penix Jr. and Patrick Mahomes each had 250 passing yards in their games. Tua Tagovailoa did have two touchdowns in each of his starts against the Bills but only 319 combined passing yards on 55 attempts.
Houston Texans Positional Preview
Running Back | Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12
Rookie Woody Marks continues to take over more of the backfield workload, with veteran Nick Chubb seeing the field on just 28 snaps over the last two games as compared to the 106 for Marks. Chubb surprisingly did have three targets in these games, with eight over the last five, though Marks had 16 in that broader timeframe. Dare Ogunbowale had one target in four of the last five games, along with one carry.
Marks has a lofty $9,200 salary on DraftKings, and Chubb remains in the mix at $3,200, though Ogunbowale is only an extreme punt at $400. It is a little closer on FanDuel with Marks at $10,400 and Chubb at $5,800, while Ogunbowale is best left for those crafting 50-plus lineups at $1,200 on the blue site.
There are many potential paths to a unique lineup build, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic TNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Wide Receiver | Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12
Nico Collins has a massive $11,200 salary on DraftKings and $12,400 on FanDuel, ranking second and third overall with the third- and fourth-highest median fantasy projection, respectively. Collins had double-digit targets in each of the last four games, seeing 46 in total during this run. His four touchdowns have him at the lowest rate of the last three seasons, though a two-touchdown game could easily change that trajectory.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Collins is -120 for over 5.5 receptions, -110 for over 71.5 receiving yards and +145 to score a touchdown. In the last two games with Davis under center, Collins had 19.7 and 22.1 FanDuel points, and 24.2 and 25.6 DraftKings points.
Rookie Jayden Higgins had seven targets in each of the two games with Mills starting, and he had a season-high eight in Week 8. Veteran Christian Kirk gets target volume, seeing 15 in his three games since returning from injury, but they resulted in just six catches, with only two for 9 yards in the last two tilts.
Rookie Jaylin Noel and third-year Texan Xavier Hutchinson are lurking, and each gets regular playing time, though sporadic opportunities, regardless of which quarterback is under center.
Tight Ends | Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12
Dalton Schultz is the de facto WR2 with a snap-share floor of nearly 70% and 68 targets, which is second on the team. In the last three games he saw 28 looks for 19 catches, 181 yards and a score. Harrison Bryant was out last week, and he is on the injured reserve, leading to the return of Cade Stover, who was on the field for 14 offensive plays. The Texans run three-wideout sets a fair amount, and since the Week 7 bye, non-Schultz tight ends have just three combined targets.
Kicker | Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12
Ka’imi Fairbairn is continuing to chug along as an above-average kicker, and while he is not as flashy as his peers, he has an 88% conversion rate on his field goals this season and a 90.5% success rate across his last 54 games. All three of his misses this season were from beyond 50 yards, as were three of his six last year. He has been the Houston kicker for the last nine years, and clearly the team trusts him, regardless of which regime is in charge.
Defense | Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12
The Texans rank fifth in the league with 1.6 takeaways per tilt, while Buffalo averages 1.2 giveaways a game. Houston is steady at 2.5 sacks per game, though the Bills allow only two themselves.
NFL DFS Picks for Bills-Texans NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 12: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bills-Texans
- Josh Allen: Considering the player pool, he theoretically holds the top 3 spots himself.
- James Cook III: Will have his work cut out for him, but this offense is consolidated between Cook and Allen.
- Nico Collins: Slightly above his quarterback on DraftKings; there is an argument to swap them on FanDuel.
- Davis Mills: See above.
- Woody Marks: Hefty salary; needs at least one touchdown and 100 combined yards to become a viable option for the multiplier slot.
- Khalil Shakir: Best rapport with Allen.
- Ka’imi Fairbairn: Gets the homefield nod; solid salary saver.
- Gabe Davis: Return from injury had fortuitous timing, and his salary is a bargain.
- Dalton Schultz: Mr. Dependable.
- Matt Prater: Don’t be a hater, roster Prater!
Secondary Options
- Jayden Higgins: Kid is improving every game.
- Dawson Knox: Another option being pushed into prominence with the Buffalo injuries.
- Buffalo DST: Houston offensive line is soooooooo bad.
- Joshua Palmer and Tyrell Shavers: Coinflip when considering salary and overall body of NFL work.
- Houston DST: Strongest part of the entire team; should be good for a handful of sacks plus turnovers; points allowed are a different story against the reigning MVP.
Lottery Tickets
- Ty Johnson: Clear RB2, but workload is sparse. Gets some kickoff return work, though Davis is the lead option.
- Nick Chubb: Houston version of Johnson.
- Christian Kirk: What an odd season; $2,800 on DraftKings is wildly appealing.
- Xavier Hutchison, Jaylin Noel, Elijah Moore, Jackson Hawes and Ray Davis: Each should be active, and each projects for between 2 and 4 fantasy points at appropriate salaries, particularly on DraftKings. Tough trying to identify which has the best path to half a dozen fantasy points. Davis is the lead kickoff returner for Buffalo. Noel is the main punt returner for Houston; shares kickoff return duties with cornerback Tremon Smith.
- Cade Stover: $600 on DraftKings gives him his own line; hard to endorse at $1,000 on FanDuel with the differences in scoring systems and salary caps; a longshot either way.
- Dare Ogunbowale: Similar assessment as Stover at $400, though less likely to be on the field.
- Keleki Latu, Jakob Johnson, Reggie Gilliam and British Brooks: Just say no.
