Dallas (6-5-1) is riding a three-game winning streak and sits on the postseason bubble. The Cowboys have a 23% likelihood of making the playoffs, including a 10% chance of overtaking Philadelphia (8-4) for the NFC East title, though it all hinges on a victory tonight. The Lions are favored by a field goal at home and are half a game up on Dallas in the Wild Card race. After beginning the season with a 4-1 record, the Motor City Kitties meandered to a 7-5 record, and now pressure is mounting on all fronts.
In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Cowboys-Lions Week 14 TNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action.
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 14 DFS Picks: Cowboys-Lions
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 14: Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,400
FanDuel: $12,200
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 19.63
FanDuel: 18.58
Dak Prescott is having quite the fantasy season, leading the league with 303 completions, 161 first downs, and a 75.3 QBR, and his 271.8 passing yards per game are the most among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts. He also has 25 passing touchdowns, which is tied for second, trailing only the 32 posted by MVP candidate Matthew Stafford.
Prescott was never much of a runner, especially after his gruesome ankle injury during the pandemic season. Still, he has two touchdowns this year and is mobile enough in the pocket to extend plays, which allows his stellar wideouts time to break free of coverage.
The OddsShopper Live Odds have the three-time Pro Bowler at -110 for over 270.5 passing yards, -109 for more than 12.5 rushing yards and a ridiculous -175 for more than 1.5 passing scores. Detroit allowed nine different quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns this season, with four topping 250 passing yards. It is hard to be overly excited for Prescott in the multiplier slot, though he conceivably could approach 300 yards and a touchdown to three different teammates, giving him a path to outscoring his pass-catchers. This is more realistic on FanDuel with the half-PPR scoring format.
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Dallas Cowboys Positional Preview
Running Back | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
For three consecutive weeks, Javonte Williams was between the lines for 78% of the offensive action. H-Back Hunter Luepke will be on the field for around one-quarter of the snaps, with rookie Malik Davis now securing the RB2 role, averaging 11 offensive plays over the last three games. Davis flashed a little upside, turning 10 carries into 91 yards and a touchdown. Luepke had one carry for 5 yards in this timeframe, though he had four of his nine targets on the season in this stretch, catching all four for 43 yards.
Currently, the Stokastic NFL projections have Williams for 16.1 carries and 74.3 yards, plus 2.97 targets for 2.3 receptions and 13.2 yards, along with a 65% probability of scoring a touchdown. Davis is earmarked for 2.3 carries for 11.2 yards and 30% chance for a target, with Luepke having a 75% likelihood of a target.
Davis, of course, has contingent value if something befalls Williams, though that is a tough contingency to count on. Williams is sixth in the league with 79.6 rushing yards per game, but he has only five carries for more than 20 yards. Between his pass-catching and touchdown potential providing access to attainable upside and his $8,400 salary on DraftKings, he is currently projecting to be on around 45% of all rosters. It is a similar story for the blue site at $9,200, with his rostership currently sitting a tick over 50% for the large-field tournaments.
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Wide Receiver | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
CeeDee Lamb missed Week 3 through Week 6, which gave newcomer George Pickens some quality time to develop a nice rapport with Prescott. In the six games since Lamb’s return, he had 57 targets for 35 receptions, 522 yards and a trio of tuddies. Pickens also had 57 targets for 41 catches for 617 yards and two touchdowns in these games.
The rest of the wideouts are averaging just under five combined targets in these games, with Ryan Flournoy and KaVontae Turpin rotating as the WR3, and Jalen Tolbert occasionally getting on the field. Flournoy and Turpin are each likely to get two or three targets, with Tolbert a longshot to get any looks in this concentrated offense.
Tight End | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
Jake Ferguson had a 15.6% target share over the last six games, well behind the 27.8% for Pickens and Lamb. Ferguson ended a 22-game scoreless streak in Week 4, popping off for seven touchdowns in the next seven games, though he had just one end zone trip in the last five games. He actually leads the team with 20 red zone looks, compared to 17 for Pickens and 10 for Lamb.
Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford will each be on the field for approximately 30% of the snaps, but each has just two targets for the season.
Kicker | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
Brandon Aubrey continues to be the gold standard for kickers, making 22 of 24 (92%), with both misses coming from 50-plus yards, including one that would have been an NFL record of 68 yards. He had multiple field goal attempts in eight of the 12 (75%) games this season, and savvy gamers will want to consider being over the field on him, which projects to be around 25% for both sites.
Defense | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
Though the Cowboys give up points, the offense does put pressure on the opposition, coaxing most teams into an above-average passing rate. Across the last five games, Dallas had 17 sacks, one interception, two fumble recoveries, a return touchdown and a safety. Detroit has injuries to most of the offensive line, including guard Kayode Awosika (foot), center Graham Glasgow (knee), Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker (both dealing with shoulder injuries). They are all questionable, and the Lions ceded a hefty 17 sacks in the last six games.
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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 14: Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $13,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 25.71
FanDuel: 21.91
Fantasy gamers got their wish over the last three games, with Detroit boosting Jahmyr Gibbs to a 73% snap share and David Montgomery sliding down under 40% in this period. Gibbs also saw some action split out wide in a flanker/slot role, and that could continue tonight with Amon-Ra St. Brown unlikely to play.
Clearly, the Lions still want Montgomery to have a regular role, though with postseason dreams slipping away, Gibbs is the priority. In the last three games, he was peppered with 24 targets to just six for Monty. On the running front, Gibbs was on fire with 62 carries for 468 rushing yards in the last four games, including four touchdowns on the ground and two more through the air. Montgomery had 15 carries for 71 yards in Week 10, though he slipped to just 17 in the last trio of tilts, with 77 yards and a Thanksgiving touchdown.
The rest of the running backs had just three combined offensive snaps in the last eight games. It is feasible to play Gibbs and Montgomery on the same roster, which could be fruitful if Detroit is able to control the game, taking the burden off the defense and masking the absence of St. Brown.
Detroit Lions Positional Preview
Quarterback | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
Jared Goff ranks sixth in the league with 252.1 yards per game, and he is tied with Prescott for the second-most passing touchdowns at 25. Dallas is allowing the third-most yards to opposing quarterbacks at 251.5 per game, the most passing touchdowns (28) and the highest passer rating (109.0).
The OddsShopper Live Odds have the four-time Pro Bowler at -111 for over 250.5 passing yards, +120 for more than 0.5 rushing yards and a wild -190 for more than 1.5 passing scores. Goff is best employed in the flex slot since it is likely he will be outscored by at least one of his pass-catchers if he has a good game.
Wide Receiver | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
Kalif Raymond is out, and St. Brown is all but certain to miss tonight’s game as of this writing. The tight end position is without Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright, leaving Ross Dwelley and Anthony Firkser as the remaining options. This is going to funnel targets and the attention of the defense onto Jameson Williams, though the former offsets the latter, considering how shaky the Dallas secondary is.
While Williams has only 38 receptions on his 63 targets, he is fourth in the league with 14 receptions of at least 20 yards and 18th in yards after the catch. The Stokastic NFL projections have Williams 7.5 targets, 5.7 receptions, 90.7 yards and a 70% probability of scoring a touchdown. Rookie Isaac TeSlaa is earmarked for 4.5 targets, 3.2 catches and 42.8 yards, and veteran reserve Tom Kennedy is at 3.1 targets, 2.6 receptions and 33.1 yards. One of this duo will likely be the punt returner as well, with Kennedy having replaced Raymond in that capacity on Thanksgiving while also being the primary kickoff returner. Considering the lack of depth at this position, Kennedy may cede his kickoff return role to avoid potential injuries, and Jacob Saylors (back) or Craig Reynolds would step into the mix in that event.
Considering the discounted salaries for Kennedy and TeSlaa, there are many potential paths to a unique lineup build, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET, where we break down all the action with the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Tight End | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
Wright mostly replaced LaPorta in Weeks 11 and 12, with Dwelley and Firkser each getting three snaps in these games. On Thanksgiving, Dwelley was on the field for 75% of the offensive action, Firkser had a 24% snap share and UDFA Zach Horton got the first eight offensive plays of his career. Dwelley and Firkser are each in play for a couple of targets, with less projected popularity than Kennedy.
Kicker | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
Last year as a rookie, Jake Bates led the league in both point-after-touchdown attempts and conversions. He is again atop the leaderboard in both categories, and while that cuts down on his field goal attempts, he has 20 through 12 games, making his last seven attempts. It is hard to be too disappointed with his pedestrian 80% conversion rate, considering that three of his four misses were from 50-plus yards, including a 67-yard attempt in Baltimore at the end of the first half in Week 3. His other two misses came at home from 54 and 55 yards.
Bates started out as a college soccer player for two seasons at Central Arkansas. He then went to Texas State, becoming the team’s kickoff specialist before moving to Arkansas in his final year, still only seeing action as a kickoff specialist. It wasn’t until he joined the Michigan Panthers of the UFL that he actually earned a place-kicking role. In the startup league, his first official field goal attempt was a league-record 64-yarder, which he made at Ford Field in a full-circle moment.
Defense | Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14
Dallas is stingy with just two sacks allowed in the last three games and 17 for the season, which is the third fewest in the league. In turn, the Lions had only four sacks in the last four games, tailing off dramatically from a decent start to the season. Safety Kerby Joseph is out and Brian Branch is questionable.
NFL DFS Picks for Cowboys-Lions NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 14: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-Lions
- Jahmyr Gibbs: Captain, My Captain!
- George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb: Pickens is slightly less popular on DraftKings, while Lamb has that distinction on FanDuel. It is hard to go wrong with either, and both can be employed together.
- Jameson Williams: Absence of St. Brown does not guarantee extra volume, though there should be at least a couple extra targets going his way tonight.
- Dak Prescott: PPR King Maker!
- Javonte Williams: This is a top-heavy player pool.
- Jared Goff: He has a wide array of potential outcomes.
- Jake Ferguson: Getting lost in the shuffle.
- Brandon Aubrey and Jake Bates: Field goal opportunities are fickle, but these guys are excellent and both have serious range and salary savings.
- David Montgomery: Still live in the red zone, even with the volume now handily in Gibbs’ favor.
- Tom Kennedy and Isaac TeSlaa: The discount dandies who are making this a fun slate with all the options above them.
Secondary Options
- Dallas DST: Fantasy goodness is possible, even from a shaky defense, when the opponents are forced to throw a lot.
- KaVontae Turpin: Should see a target or two and a carry; also returns punts and kickoffs at an elite level.
- Ross Dwelley and Anthony Firkser: Leverage against Kennedy and TeSlaa; in play for those crafting 20-plus lineups.
Lottery Tickets
- Detroit DST: Always live for a splash play.
- Ryan Flournoy: Part-time role, though still will be on the field.
- Malik Davis and Hunter Luepke: Would merit more discussion as discount dandies if the Detroit pass-catching corps weren’t so thin.
- Luke Schoonmaker, Jalen Tolbert, Brevyn Spann-Ford: Meh.
- Dominic Lovett, Hayden Rucci, Jackson Meeks, Jacob Saylors, Sione Vaki, Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders: See you in the funny papers.
