Quick, which team has the best record in the NFL? Well, there is a three-way tie with the Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots sitting at 8-2, which is not the top 3 pundits expected in August. On the flipside, the New York Jets ended their seven-game slide with victories in Cincinnati and against Cleveland.
Even though New York projects to score just under 15 points and is nearly a two-touchdown road dog, the Jets and Pats are still going to play to make this contest official. This means there is ample DFS strategy to consider. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Jets-Patriots Week 11 TNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 11 DFS Picks: Jets-Patriots
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11: Justin Fields
Justin Fields
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
FanDuel: $12,400
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 16.62
FanDuel: 16.45
Not once, not twice, not thrice, but FOUR TIMES quarterback Justin Fields failed to throw for more than 55 yards in a start this season. Yes, he was out with a concussion in the second half of Week 2, though he played 62% of the snaps and still managed just 27 yards, going 3-for-11 (27%) on his throws.
Backup Tyrod Taylor started Week 3 in Tampa Bay when the Jets narrowly lost 29-27 to the Buccaneers. Taylor was in line to be the starter for Week 8, but he suffered a knee injury in practice, so Fields remained QB1. Coach Aaron Glenn said Fields will start tonight on the short week; however, it would not be a surprise to see Taylor replace him if things turn ugly.
Offensive linemen Gust Hartwig and Alijah Vera-Tucker are on injured reserve, with reserve guard Xavier Newman (ankle) likely to be available, listed as a full participant in the last two practices. The real issue is Garrett Wilson being out, suffering a knee injury last week in his return from a two-game layoff. That leaves rookie tight end Mason Taylor as the most consistent pass-catcher. Yikes!
New England allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns in six of 10 games this season, including Cleveland rookie Dillon Gabriel. In Week 4, both Bryce Young and Andy Dalton had touchdowns, so technically the Patriots gave up multiple aerial scores in seven of 10 games.
There is a good chance that Taylor will replace Fields at some point tonight, though it likely would need to be in the first half for it to have a dramatic impact for DFS purposes. Fields had single-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games, just cresting over 20 in Cincinnati. He had 25-plus fantasy points in three other games, so there are clearly positive outcomes, but it would take a rushing touchdown and a full game under center to realistically approach this level of production.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Fields is -115 for over 136.5 passing yards, -113 for over 39.5 rushing yards, -120 to throw a touchdown and +225 to score a touchdown himself.
New York Jets Positional Preview
Running Back | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
Breece Hall has been surrounded by trade rumors since the offseason, though nothing came to fruition. Hall had 21 carries for 83 yards on Sunday against the Browns, turning his lone target into a 42-yard touchdown catch. He had three other games with 100-plus rushing yards, and he tallied 30-plus receiving yards in five of nine games.
The Patriots allowed eight different running backs to clear 50 combined yards, though New England has allowed only two rushing touchdowns and one receiving to the position.
Since losing Braelon Allen to a knee injury in Week 4, returner Kene Nwangwu stepped between the lines once on offense, with second-year man Isaiah Davis handling all of the other non-Hall snaps. Davis picked up 50 of his 119 rushing yards on one run against Cincinnati, and he at least saw four or more targets in three of the last five games. On an offense as low-volume and anemic as this one, that is an accomplishment.
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Wide Receiver | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
Josh Reynolds is on the injured reserve, and with Wilson sidelined as well, it is likely that Allen Lazard will play tonight after being inactive on Sunday. Journeyman Tyler Johnson reached 1,000 career receiving yards against Cincinnati, with the NFL nomad having been come into the league as a fifth-round selection by Tampa Bay in 2020. This is his first season for the Jets, having played for three other franchises and been on the roster of two additional teams.
Adonai Mitchell was not active after being acquired from Indianapolis since he did not have time to become familiarized with enough of the playbook. There is a good chance that he will play tonight as a starter alongside rookie Arian Smith. John Metchie III was acquired from Philadelphia as part of the Michael Carter II trade, and he had one target and a carry on his eight snaps. Then there is second-year wideout Isaiah Williams, who played 42% of the snaps over the last two games, earning four targets.
DFS gamers are faced with choosing from a bunch of WR3 and WR4 types in a run-first offense helmed by an inaccurate quarterback. Not good times, bad times!
Tight End | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
Taylor is a bright spot for the Jets, with the rookie currently second on the team at 44 targets. He will likely be on the field for 75% of the offensive action, with Jeremy Ruckert at 40% to 50% as the TE2 and extra blocker. Ruckert had one target in each of the last three games, compared to the 16 for Taylor. Andrew Beck will likely be in the mix for a dozen snaps, though he had just one target in the last three tilts.
Kicker | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
Nick Folk is no stranger to playing his trade in New England, having been a Patriot for four seasons between 2019 and 2022. The 41-year-old earned Pro Bowl accolades as a rookie all the way back in 2007 with the Dallas Cowboys.
For those wondering how Folk is still in the league, despite debuting several years before the advent of DFS, he is perfect on his five attempts from beyond 50 yards this year and he has a 100% success rate this season. Additionally, he led the NFL in field goal accuracy each of the last two years (95.5% and 96.7%) and converted on 20 of his last 22 attempts from 50-plus yards.
Defense | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
Prior to sacking Gabriel six times on Sunday, New York managed six total sacks in the preceding six games. The Jets are yet to intercept any opposing quarterback, and the team has one recovered fumble. Yikes!
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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 11: Drake Maye
Drake Maye
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000
FanDuel: $13,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 19.62
FanDuel: 18.84
Drake Maye is among the MVP frontrunners, though that is a fluid futures market. He clearly maintained the success he found as a rookie when he was named to the Pro Bowl squad. The second-year signal-caller is ninth in the league with 255.5 passing yards per game while ranking fifth in both QBR (72.9) and passer rating (113.9).
Maye also found success as a rusher, recording four games of 25 or more yards this season and eight in his rookie campaign. The 23-year-old has nearly cut his interception rate in half from last year (3.0% to 1.7%), and his 19 touchdown passes are four more than last year in two fewer starts.
The Jets have not yet allowed any opposing quarterback to throw for more than 244 yards, but they suffered five multi-touchdown games, including four passing scores by Aaron Rodgers in the opener and from Dak Prescott in Week 5.
New England is seventh in the league for time of possession at 31:25, while New York is 23rd at 29:03. The clock is likely to continually move in this game with both teams happy to run the ball, though all of Fields’ incompletions will, of course, pause the chronometer.
New England Patriots Positional Preview
Running Back | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) was ruled out for tonight after missing the two preceding games, and Antonio Gibson is on the injured reserve. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson played on nearly 80% of the snaps in these tilts, with Terrell Jennings sliding from a season high of 17 plays down to five and D’Ernest Johnson on the field for six plays Sunday. Johnson was previously on the Baltimore and Arizona practice squads, though he did get one start last year for Jacksonville.
Jennings is questionable with a knee injury, but there is a chance he will be inactive. If that is the outcome that transpires, Johnson will be the discount dandy du jour on DraftKings ($2,000) and FanDuel ($2,200).
Henderson is coming off a monster outing against the Buccaneers, rushing for 147 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries in Tampa Bay on Sunday. He had 55-plus rushing yards in each of the last three games and should clear that figure tonight as the lead back.
There are so many moving parts for this position, so it is worth tuning into the Stokastic TNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Wide Receivers | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) is out for a second consecutive game, which does thin things down a little. Newcomer Stefon Diggs leads the team with 61 targets, though he was on the field for more than 60% of the snaps only once (63% in Week 4). The team needs him healthy for a postseason run, so he is overburdened with blocking and empty routes.
Mack Hollins was another offseason addition, and the journeyman was on the field for almost 70% of the snaps during the most recent four games and he is second among the wideouts with 33 targets. DeMario “Pop” Douglas keeps chugging along, mostly playing on passing downs with a 25% overall play participation rate most games, though he has 32 targets in his limited action.
Rookie Kyle Williams is having a rough season, but the third-round selection had a 46% snap share in Week 9 after Boutte was injured, and he had a season-high 56% on Sunday, turning one of his two targets into a 72-yard touchdown.
Tight End | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
Austin Hooper (concussion) is out tonight, which likely means more playing time for Jack Westover, who saw his first target of the year on Sunday. Hunter Henry is again a trusted target for Drake, ranking second on the team with 47 opportunities, including nine in the red zone. Henry corralled nearly 75% of the targets to this position, seeing three or more in all but one game this season.
Kicker | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
Rookie Andres Borregales was a sixth-round selection from the University of Miami, where he spent four years as the main placekicker, leading the conference with 22 makes on 26 attempts his junior year and then topping the leaderboard with a perfect 62 of 62 on point-after-touchdown attempts as a senior. His lone miss this season was back in Week 1 on a 40-yard effort.
Defense | Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11
The Patriots are in the middle of the scrum, recording 2.2 sacks and 1.1 takeaways per game. The Jets allow 1.2 turnovers per game while suffering a hefty 3.8 sacks per tilt.
NFL DFS Picks for Jets-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 11: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Jets-Patriots
- Drake Maye: The real question is, how many lineups will you make without Maye?
- TreVeyon Henderson: Has the coveted “bell cow” role by default; to his credit he looked better after a slow start.
- Hunter Henry: Just bests the top Jet from a fantasy point-per-dollar perspective when including touchdown equity.
- Breece Hall: Likely everyone’s preferred New York option.
- Justin Fields: This ranking assumes he plays the full game.
- Nick Folk: Projectable points; viable as the one New York player in New England onslaught lineups.
- Mason Taylor: Not bad for a rookie.
- Stefon Diggs: Likely needs a touchdown to be impactful as New England may not need many pass attempts.
- Andres Borregales: Solid start to his career.
- New England DST: This just doesn’t seem fair.
Secondary Options
- Mac Hollins: Should be on the field a lot.
- Isaiah Davis: Better on DraftKings with the full-PPR; still a punt option on FanDuel. Also returns kickoffs with Nwangwu and Williams.
- DeMario Douglas: Unlikely to see much action, though he is a trusted short-range option.
- Tyler Johnson: Theoretically the leading New York wideout, but unlikely to crack the top 3 on most other teams.
- Terrell Jennings and D’Ernest Johnson: Limit rosters to one of this duo; best path to fantasy goodness is likely via mop-up duty.
Lottery Tickets
- Tyrod Taylor: Under the assumption he gets the call in the second half. If he were to get the nod with at least 10 minutes left in the second quarter, he would move above Hollins.
- John Metchie III, Arian Smith, Adonai Mitchell and Allan Lazard: Close your eyes and pick one after the inactives list is posted.
- New York DST: Special teams has two of the three touchdowns; that is about the only way this squad makes it into the optimal lineup.
- Kyle Williams: Rookie may get mop-up duty, though passing would likely be limited in that scenario.
- Jeremy Ruckert and Jack Westover: Will at least be on the field; that is half the battle for single-game contests.
- Isaiah Williams: Main punt returner for New York; also sees some action on kickoffs.
- Efton Chism III and Kene Nwangwu: Each is the lead kickoff returner for their respective teams.
- CJ Dippre, Jermaine Dupri, Beck, Andrew Beck, Stone Smartt, Oliver Stone and Emma Stone: Oh, Hell No!
