Denver won six straight and is tied for the best record in the league with Indianapolis and New England at 7-2, while Buffalo, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams are all at 6-2. Las Vegas has just two victories and is averaging 16.5 points per game, which are the fourth fewest in the league. The Raiders are not great on defense, though not terrible, ceding 26.2 points per game.
Though this looks like a potential lopsided game with the Broncos favored by 9.5 to 10.0 points at home, there is still DFS strategy to consider. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Raiders-Broncos Week 10 TNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo.
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 10 DFS Picks: Raiders-Broncos
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10: Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $12,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 16.02
FanDuel: 12.31
After sitting out for just over a month due to a sprained PCL, Brock Bowers returned to action with a monster game. He brought in 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and a trio of tuddies, including one with just under two minutes in the game and another with 16 seconds left in overtime. Las Vegas lost, failing to complete a 2-point conversion for the win, eschewing the tie against Jacksonville.
Patrick Surtain II is out for a second game due to a pectoral injury, leaving Denver without their shutdown corner. He actually spent a fair amount of time going against Bowers last year, helping the Broncos win both games against Las Vegas. Jakobi Meyers had his preseason wish for a trade granted, landing with Jacksonville earlier this week.
Michael Mayer is also dealing with injuries, missing Weeks 4 and 5, playing on nearly 93% snaps in his two games without Bowers. Last week he was on the field for 83% of the offensive action, and expectations for tonight are similar since he will be part of the plan to fill the void left by Meyers. Keep in mind that Mayer was a second-round draft pick the season prior to Bowers being selected 10th overall and he is a more than capable receiver and blocker. He had nine targets in the two games without Bowers and a stellar seven last week with him.
Las Vegas Raiders Positional Preview
Quarterback | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
Geno Smith has 11 interceptions on the season, and his 8.02% sack rate is not entirely the fault of the dreadful Las Vegas offensive line. Denver is third in the league, holding opposing signal-callers to a 79.8 quarterback rating, and Smith’s 83.7 mark is well below his 95.9 mark in Seattle when he earned Pro Bowl accolades twice in his three full seasons under center.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Smith is -110 for over 215.5 passing yards, -117 for more than 8.5 rushing yards and +175 to toss at least two touchdowns. While 20 fantasy points is probably a stretch, Smith should have enough opportunities to post a fantasy score in the mid-teens, which makes him a solid selection for the utility slot.
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Running Back | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
Ashton Jeanty is having a decent season, considering the terrible offensive line play and the defense putting the team at a deficit for most games. The rookie back is pacing for just over 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns. The last two matchups have been particularly rough, with Jeanty only getting a combined 19 carries for 63 yards, converting all six of his targets for 60 yards and a score.
In the two victories and the 25-24 loss to Chicago, Jeanty averaged 21 carries and scored a rushing touchdown in each game, along with two touchdown receptions against the Bears. Zamir White was inactive once again, last seeing offensive snaps in Week 3. Raheem Mostert did not play the first three games, but he has been the RB2 since Week 4; however, only once did he play more than 13 snaps in a game.
Second-year man Dylan Laube is the RB3, though he stepped between the lines on offense in just three games and only one since Week 3. Clearly, the lead role is all Jeanty, all the time.
Wide Receiver | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
Tre Tucker is the lone capable wideout now that Meyers is gone. The Raiders added Tyler Lockett, who was on a one-year, $4 million deal with Tennessee prior to asking for his release. The 33-year-old is, of course, familiar with Smith and coach Pete Carroll from their Seattle days, though Lockett had just 10 receptions for 70 yards on 21 targets with the Titans. His downfield explosiveness and threat as a playmaker are long gone, though as a lifelong Seahawk fan, it is fun to remember that he was First- or Second-Team All-NFL as a return man in each of his first three years.
Fourth-round rookie Dont’e Thornton was a healthy scratch last week, and he fell out of favor after starting the first five games. His last catch was back in Week 3, though there is a good chance he will be active tonight. Fellow rookie Jack Bech is much better, and while he was active last week, he did not see any offensive snaps. Coach Carroll commented that he wanted to see what Lockett could do, which was why both rookies were abandoned. Bech should be active since he plays special teams (though not as a returner), but that is no guarantee. Alex Bachman is the wideout who returns punts, but he was on the field for only 20 offensive plays this season, earning three targets.
There are so many moving parts for this position, so it is worth tuning into the Stokastic TNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Kicker | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
Daniel Carlson has been in the league long enough that he actually played in Oakland prior to the Raiders moving to Las Vegas. The 30-year-old was the Second-Team All-Pro kicker in 2021, earning First-Team accolades the following season. In the two-plus campaigns since, he is steady with an 85% success rate on field goals, though just 11 of 20 (55%) from 50-plus yards. All three of his misses this year were from beyond 50 yards.
Defense | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
The Broncos have given up only nine sacks this season, which is tied with the Seattle Seahawks, who played one fewer game. Las Vegas has just 18 on the year for two per game. Denver has seven turnovers, with the Raiders actually ranking fourth on the strength of 11 interceptions.
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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 10: Bo Nix
Bo Nix
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,600
FanDuel: $13,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 17.98
FanDuel: 17.64
Bo Nix already has four fourth quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives, topping his three from last year. Most of his stats are in line with his rookie campaign, though he is leading the league with a scant 2.72% sack rate.
Nix also has three rushing touchdowns after tallying just four last year. He has 24.5 rushing yards per game through his 26 starts and is well coached and protected by Sean Payton’s schemes. The 25-year-old appropriately has the highest salary cap hit on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though he absolutely should be a prominent part of every DFS portfolio. Savvy gamers are going to want to have him on 85% to 90% of all lineups, with the field currently coming in at around 70% to 75%.
The former Auburn and Oregon field general is not a must for the multiplier slot, but he is pretty close to being a lock play in the utility slot. That is not a term that Your Ol’ Pal throws around lightly, and it is the first time in many months that I typed out the phrase.
Denver Broncos Positional Preview
Running Back | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
Denver has a split backfield like many teams in the league, though looking at the total season stats may be a little misleading. J.K. Dobbins settled into the lead role, playing on around half the offensive sets. Gamers still think of him as a “combo” back, but he has only 86 targets for 69 receptions, 360 yards and a touchdown in his career. This is despite starting 29 of his 46 games. This year he has been outstanding as a rusher, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns. He ranks sixth in the league with 77.2 rushing yards per game, though he has a grand total of 30 receiving yards this season.
Rookie RJ Harvey is on the field for around 30% of the offensive action, serving as the passing-down back and ranking fifth on the team with 26 targets. Tyler Badie also gets work in the passing game with a 20% snap share and 17 targets. Adam Prentice should see the field for 10-ish plays, with a 50% likelihood of getting an offensive opportunity.
Wide Receivers | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
Veteran Cortland Sutton slipped to second after Week 7, seeing 12 targets to the 18 for Troy Franklin over the last two weeks. Despite one fewer reception, Franklin has 181 fewer yards than Sutton, with each scoring four touchdowns. Sutton has been on the field for 88% of the action, Franklin 66% and rookie Pat Bryant well behind with a 40% snap share, though he averaged around 55% over the last five games.
Marvin Mims Jr. (concussion) was out last week after going down in the fourth quarter of Week 8 on a kickoff return. The All-Pro returner was replaced by Michael Bandy for punts, and Baddie and Harvey handled kickoffs. Trent Sherfield Sr. sees around a dozen snaps per game, with Bandy getting six last week in his debut. Neither is necessary for the single-game contests tonight.
The Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have Sutton for 5.9 targets, Franklin for 6.1 and Bryant for 2.7 looks. Sutton is the preferred choice from the wideouts, though Franklin presents a $2,000 discount on both DraftKings and FanDuel. One final note for Franklin, he leads all pass catchers with 11 red zone opportunities from his former college quarterback.
Tight End | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
Nate Adkins is out again with a knee injury, which should push blocking tight end Adam Trautman up to around two-thirds of the snaps. Each has 10 targets on the season, though Trautman was on a three-game drought until getting two looks on Sunday.
Evan Engram is third on the team with 40 targets, and he is good for a handful each game. Surprisingly, he has only four red zone looks, while his counterparts combined for three. Engram is averaging 3.3 catches and 26.9 receiving yards per outing, with one touchdown to his name.
Kicker | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
Wil Lutz has been outstanding in his 43 games for the Broncos, converting on 72 of 81 (89%) field goal attempts, including 10 of 15 (67%) from beyond 50 yards. He missed only two extra points and clearly is not just a “dome” kicker after spending his first six seasons in New Orleans, highlighted by Pro Bowl accolades in the 2019 season.
Defense | Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10
Denver leads the league with 40 sacks, which is a dozen more than any other team. In turn the Raiders are a little above league average, ceding a little shy of three sacks per game, including just five quarterback takedowns over the last trio of tilts. Smith has 11 interceptions this year, including two games of three, but he suffered only two in his last three appearances. Surprisingly, the Broncos have just seven takeaways, though that is no reason to avoid them for DFS tonight.
NFL DFS Picks for Raiders-Broncos NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 10: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Raiders-Broncos
- Bo Nix: The real question is how many lineups gamers choose to build without him.
- Brock Bowers: Las Vegas is more fun when he is healthy.
- Ashton Jeanty: Rookie mistakes will be made, but the kid is dynamic.
- RJ Harvey: Intriguing salary saver; could get mop-up duty in the second half.
- Geno Smith: One of two starting quarterbacks.
- Tre Tucker: Wildly ahead of his rookie counterparts.
- Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton: Most lineups should have one of this duo; they can be played together as well to corner the market.
- Wil Lutz: Underrated kicker, though with all the discounted Raiders, he is not as imperative as most single-game slates.
- J.K. Dobbins: Gets first crack, but the team does a good job of keeping him healthy; may cede late game work to Harvey.
- Denver DST: Orange Crush at home, GIGITTY!
Secondary Options
- Daniel Carlson: Just missed making the top 10.
- Evan Engram: Volume and red zone opportunities are lighter than expected.
- Michael Mayer: Excellent fantasy point-per-dollar option and better than all the non-Tucker wideouts.
Lottery Tickets
- Pat Bryant: Projectable salary saver.
- Tyler Baddie: Could see increased work in mop-up duty.
- Tyler Lockett, Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton Jr.: There is a chance one of them will be inactive, and who knows what the offensive workload will look like for any of them?
- Las Vegas DST: Will need a splash play via a pick-6, scoop-and-score or kick return touchdown.
- Raheem Mostert: Should get a handful of low-leverage opportunities; shares kickoff return role with Laube:
- Adam Trautman: Will be on the field a lot.
- Michael Bandy: $200 wild card on DraftKings, though not particularly necessary tonight.
- Dylan Laube: Could see late game looks in a blowout; also returns kickoffs.
- Alex Bachman: Returns punts with Tucker; not impossible that he will get a couple of offensive snaps, though only a 30% probability of a target — depending on who is active tonight, that could move up to 60%.
- Adam Prentice, Trent Sherfield Sr., Marcedes Lewis and Ian Thomas: Likely will be active collectively they project for 1.3 offensive opportunities.
