Baltimore has a long row to hoe with a 2-5 record, currently sitting three games out of the final Wild Card slot, which is currently held by the Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, the AFC North crown is a little easier to potentially grab, as Pittsburgh is just two games up on the Ravens and the teams square off in Week 14 and 18. Miami is in a worse spot at 2-6, though the team did take care of business Sunday against Atlanta. The heat is on everyone in a decision-making capacity from the front office to quarterback, with no job safe at this time, adding to the drama of a primetime game. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Ravens-Dolphins Week 9 TNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 9 DFS Picks: Ravens-Dolphins
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,800
FanDuel: $13,600
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 23.34
FanDuel: 22.71
Lamar Jackson is slated to return after missing a month with a hamstring injury. Baltimore lost the first two games without the two-time NFL MVP, though the Ravens did embarrass the Chicago Bears 30-16 on Sunday, ending their skid. There was a kerfuffle as the Ravens ended up retroactively changing Jackson’s status last week from full participant on Friday to limited — per NFL guidelines — since he only ran the scout team.
Miami has not allowed an opposing quarterback to score a touchdown since Week 6, though that was against rookie Dillon Gabriel and a struggling Kirk Cousins. Prior to that, the Dolphins allowed multiple passing scores in four of six games, with Daniel Jones (2 rushing touchdowns), Justin Fields and Drake Maye adding rushing touchdowns.
Although Baltimore was 1-3 in games Jackson started, the former Heisman Trophy winner led the offense to 40, 41, 30 and 20 points, with the latter being the game where he was injured. The defense tightened up over the last two games, ceding 17 and 16 points, but that does not erase the four games of 37 or more points. This game has a 50.5-point total with the Dolphins holding a 20.5 expected team total. Miami put up 21 or more points in six of the last seven games, which bodes well for Jackson backers, with Baltimore needing to put up points against this porous defense to protect the Ravens’ dreadful defense in the process.
Baltimore Ravens Positional Preview
Running Back | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
Six different running backs rushed for at least 70 yards against Miami, and seven posted 80-plus combined yards. Even with four of his seven games resulting in 50 or fewer rushing yards, Derrick Henry is still ninth in the league at 72.9 per appearance. He is fourth with six rushing touchdowns, and while he has nine targets in seven games, we are all aware of his game-breaking prowess.
Justice Hill is likely to see action on one-third of the offensive sets, serving as a solid combo back when Henry needs a break and as the preferred option when the Ravens are in passing situations. Hill has just 16 carries this season for 90 yards, most of which can be attributed to his 71-yard touchdown run. He turned 23 targets into 18 receptions for 144 yards and a score. Though these are not exciting production levels, Hill does provide salary cap relief on both DraftKings ($3,600) and FanDuel ($3,000).
Patrick Ricard returned to action last week after missing the first part of the season with a calf injury. While he is unlikely to get any offensive opportunities, the reigning First-Team All-Pro is a key blocker in the running game. Across his last 35 regular season appearances, Ricard had 12 targets, and his last carry was in Week 14 of the 2022 season.
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Wide Receiver | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
Zay Flowers is likely to benefit the most from the return of Jackson. He was peppered with 24 targets in the last three games, though Cooper Rush and Tyler Huntley are only replacement-level talents on their best days. Miami allows opposing signal-callers to post a 109.5 quarterback rating, which is the second worst in the league, ahead of only the Dallas Cowboys.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Flowers is +110 for over 5.5 receptions, -108 for more than 69.5 receiving yards and +125 for a touchdown. Rashod Bateman did not do much without Jackson, though the two have a long history together, and he is a viable DFS option tonight who should be on the field for around 80% of the snaps.
DeAndre Hopkins is a situational receiver, playing around one-third of the snaps, with Tylan Wallace working in as the WR4 sporadically.
Tight End | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
Baltimore employs a lot of two-tight end sets, as Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely project to be on the field around two-thirds of the time, while Charlie Kolar is trending towards a 35% to 45% participation rate.
Likely missed the first two games of the season, and since Jackson was out for the last trio of tilts, it is hard to know with any certainty what will transpire tonight. In his three healthy games, Jackson allocated just 14 targets to the tight end position. Considering all the moving parts in the passing game, it is worth tuning into the Stokastic TNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Kicker | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
Tyler Loop was a sixth-round selection from the University of Arizona in the most recent NFL Draft. He started out as a punter during the 2020 season, then over his last four years with the Wildcats, Loop was the full-time place kicker. During that stretch, he had an 83.8% conversion rate on 80 attempts, making 126 of 128 (98.4%) of his extra-point attempts.
Through seven games in the NFL, Loop is 12 of 13 (92.3%), and his lone miss was from 55 yards at the end of the first half during a 44-10 drubbing at home by the Houston Texans. The 24-year-old connected on 18 of 19 (94.7%) of his point-after-touchdown attempts.
Defense | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
Through seven games, Baltimore has an anemic nine sacks after finishing last season with 54, which trailed only the 63 of Denver. The Ravens are missing at least two rotational defenders at all three levels of the defense, resulting in just four takeaways on the year. Miami has a hefty 10 interceptions and 12 total turnovers, ranking second in the league. The Dolphins are in the middle of the pack with 18 sacks in eight games, which is acceptable.
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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 9: De’Von Achane
De’Von Achane
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,400
FanDuel: $12,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 21.16
FanDuel: 17.82
Baltimore allowed opposing lead ball carriers to score in six of seven games this season, with 10 running backs recording 48-plus combined yards. De’Von Achane is one of the most dynamic backs in the league, and he rushed for 60-plus yards in five of the last six games, along with 90 or more combined yards in six of eight performances.
The 24-year-old has 50 targets, which is tied for the team lead, and he helped fill in the void the Tyreek Hill injury created. Achane is ninth in the league with 96.8 yards from scrimmage, accompanied by three rushing and four receiving scores.
It cannot be stressed enough that while this is a must-win game for both teams, coach John Harbaugh is unlikely to lose his job, while Mike McDaniel could be kicked to the curb before Thanksgiving. Achane is going to be the key to McDaniel’s future employment.
Second-year back Jaylen Wright played in each of the last two games, though he has 20 total snaps on the season and is unlikely to get anything other than low-leverage opportunities, barring anything happening to Achane or rookie Ollie Gordon II. Gordon is probably going to see around half a dozen chances tonight, and he has red zone potential over Achane, depending on the down and distance.
Fullback Alec Ingold has eight targets and one carry, which is better than nothing. He should be on the field for a couple dozen plays.
Miami Dolphins Positional Preview
Quarterback | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
Tua Tagovailoa has 11 interceptions on the year, which is tied with Geno Smith, who played one fewer game. In a fun quirk, Tagovailoa also has five multi-touchdown games, including four against Atlanta on Sunday. Baltimore allowed both Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud to throw four touchdowns against them, with Josh Allen tossing two and adding another two on the ground in the opener.
The Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have Tagovailoa for 29.9 attempts, 22.1 completions, 227.3 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns with a 75% likelihood of being intercepted. While the embattled field general has little rushing upside, he is still viable in the multiplier slot for those crafting north of 10 lineups.
Wide Receivers | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
Jaylen Waddle is tied with Achane, seeing 50 targets on the season. He had 27 looks in the four games without Hill and had at least 95 yards or a touchdown in five games. Waddle has the fourth-highest salary on both DraftKings ($10,400) and FanDuel ($10,400) for good reason.
Malik Washington saw at least five targets in each of the games sans Hill, though most were short-yardage looks. He is a tremendous option on DraftKings ($4,800) but only a tertiary target on FanDuel ($7,400) with an unforgiving cap hit and limited production upside in the half-PPR scoring format on the blue site.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has the WR3 role on lockdown, seeing action on two-thirds of the offensive sets over the last month, albeit with just eight targets. Cedrick Wilson Jr. was signed off the New Orleans practice squad earlier this month, stepping between the lines for the first time on Sunday. His addition is likely to relegate Dee Eskridge back to a kickoff return role only, sharing opportunities with Washington.
Tight End | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
In the least surprising development of the season, Darren Waller is hurt and on the injured reserve with a pectoral issue. Julian Hill missed last week due to an ankle injury, and he is ruled out for tonight. Tanner Conner is the last healthy regular, with Greg Dulcich and Hayden Rucci seeing their first action of the season this weekend, replacing Waller and Hill. Conner is the most likely to be targeted, though only 39 passes went to this position over the entire season.
Kicker | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
Riley Patterson had eight stops since he first appeared with Detroit in 2021 as a replacement for the last seven weeks of the season after the Lions had used three other place kickers. Like Loop, Patterson’s lone miss this season is from beyond 50 yards, and he is perfect on 19 extra-point attempts. The 26-year-old is the epitome of replacement level, though that does not impact our decisions for Thursday Night Football.
Defense | Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 9
Baltimore allows around three sacks per game, which is almost double from last season. Yes, for those wondering, Jackson was taken down 15 times in his four starts, with Rush and Huntley giving up seven while under center. The Dolphins accrued just under one takeaway each game, while the Ravens are mediocre with 1.3 turnovers per tilt.
NFL DFS Picks for Ravens-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 9: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Dolphins
- De’Von Achane: Easy click!
- Lamar Jackson: Just a tick behind Achane; Jackson would be the top dog if he had not missed the last month.
- Jaylen Waddle: Enjoy the volume without Hill.
- Zay Flowers: Should return to Pro Bowl form with Jackson in action.
- Derrick Henry: Terrifying to roster with the lofty salary and equally terrifying to consider the prospects of a multi-touchdown game.
- Tua Tagovailoa: Lack of rushing production tempers his realistic upside potential.
- Tyler Loop: Projectable salary relief.
- Malik Washington: Drop five spots on FanDuel.
- Riley Patterson: Things fall off quickly for this particular player pool.
- Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely: Likely is $3,000 cheaper on DraftKings and has a massive $5,200 discount on FanDuel.
Secondary Options
- Justice Hill: In the mix, regardless of game flow.
- Rashod Bateman: Steady contributor.
- Tanner Conner: Literal last man standing.
Lottery Tickets
- Baltimore DST: Tagovailoa should be good for a handful of turnovers and sacks.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and DeAndre Hopkins: Low-volume contributors.
- Ollie Gordon II: Could luck into a touchdown; has one rushing and one receiving this year.
- Alec Ingold: Live for a target; best used on DraftKings ($200) at the minimum salary.
- Miami DST: Hoping for a pick-6, scoop-and-score or a kick return touchdown.
- Keaton Mitchell, Charlie Kolar, Tyson Wallace and Greg Dulcich: Each projects for between one and two offensive opportunities.
- Rasheen Ali and LaJohntay Wester: Lead kickoff and punt returner for Baltimore.
- Jaylen Wright, Cedric Wilson Jr., Tahj Washington, Patrick Ricard , Hayden Rucci and Dee Eskridge: Trick or Treat!
