The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-1, having already had their bye week, and a win would put them even with the 5-1 Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cincinnati made a trade last week to bring veteran Joe Flacco into the fold after Jake Browning was not able to replicate the success he gave the Bengals in 2023 when Joe Burrow missed time. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Steelers-Bengals Week 7 TNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 7 DFS Picks: Steelers-Bengals
NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7: Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400
FanDuel: $9,200
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.27
FanDuel: 13.71
What if a team ran an offense, but no players showed up? That is almost what last week felt like, as Pittsburgh collected a 23-9 home field victory against Cleveland coming off a Week 5 bye. Jaylen Warren dealt with a knee injury that kept him out of the Dublin game, though he was a full practice participant all last week.
Though he played on just over half the snaps, Pittsburgh was in control all game, as the Browns could only muster three field goals. Warren had 11 carries for 52 yards, catching both targets for another 11. Had this game been competitive, he likely would have cleared 100 combined yards and found the end zone. He has the sixth-highest salary on DraftKings and FanDuel, and while that is a little high, he has the fourth-highest median fantasy point projection on both sites.
Kenneth Gainwell had a nice game in Ireland, putting up 99 rushing yards and two scores on 19 carries, catching all six targets for 35 yards. While he also saw six targets last week, he had only 14 yards, despite corralling all of them. It is hard to see him overtaking Warren, though he definitely has a leg up over rookie Kaleb Johnson.
This is likely a 55/45/10 split, with Johnson seeing only low-leverage looks. Gainwell proved to be an adequate backup in his four Philadelphia seasons, and it is clear head coach Mike Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith trust him in all facets of the game.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Positional Preview
Quarterback | Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7
Tonight will mark the second time in NFL history that two 40-year-old quarterbacks start in the same game. For those wondering, Drew Brees and Tom Brady squared off a couple times at the end of their careers.
Aaron Rodgers does have 10 passing touchdowns through five games, though he has yet to top 244 yards and is averaging just 204.2 per game, which ranks 23rd among quarterbacks with at least three starts. The Steelers have been improving on defense, particularly with injured players returning to action. The team is slow-paced and prefers to run the ball, which keeps the clock moving.
Aside from a furious fourth quarter road comeback against the New York Jets, the way the games have played out, there was not a pressing need for the passing game. Even in the 31-17 Week 2 loss at home against Seattle, the game was tied in 14-14 in the third quarter after the Seahawks scored and then rallied for another 17 points in the final frame. That included a gift touchdown when Johnson left the ball on the ground in the end zone on a kickoff, allowing George Holani to recover it for an improbable touchdown.
Rodgers projects for around 30 pass attempts and 225 aerial yards, which is far from exciting, but it is likely to be consolidated amongst just three or four pass-catchers.
Wide Receiver | Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7
DK Metcalf transitioned nicely to his new team, becoming the clear priority in the passing game. He is 15th this season with 71.2 receiving yards per game and ranks sixth with four scores. He accounts for 34.5% of the receiving yards for Pittsburgh, leading the team with a 23.3% target share. Calvin Austin III (shoulder) is out for a second consecutive game, leaving Scotty Miller, Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek as the remaining wideouts.
Even with Austin being second among the wide receivers at 17 targets, last week it was Metcalf with nine looks and Wilson with one. The Steelers had a lot of one-wideout sets, with Miller (44%), Wilson (25%) and Skowronek (17%) barely surpassing the 83% snap share of Metcalf. For the season, Wilson (3), Skowronek (2) and Miller (1) combine for only half a dozen targets.
Any of the tertiary trio could be live for a score, but any sort of volume concentrated to one of them is unlikely unless something befalls Metcalf in-game.
Tight End | Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7
Pittsburgh, of course, traded for Jonnu Smith in the preseason, reuniting him with Smith (Arthur) for a third different franchise. The Steelers are still playing four tight ends, though Smith has 20 of the 42 targets to the position. Pat Freiermuth was once the lead tight end for the team, though he fell behind Smith and Darnell Washington for playing time and he has only on target in the last two games, while Smith (7) and Washington (8) commanded all but one of the other looks. That other opportunity was the second target of the season for Connor Heyward, who, of course, caught a touchdown last week.
Though Washington has nine targets to the 11 of Freiermuth for the full season, it is important to reiterate what appears to be a changing of roles.
Kicker | Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7
Chris Boswell earned his second career Pro Bowl nomination last year while also being named to the NFL First-Team All-Pro, leading the league with 41 made field goals on 44 (93%) attempts. Two of his three misses were from 50-plus yards, which is impressive considering he has to deal with the tricky winds at Acrisure Stadium while playing the all of his games outdoors in the AFC Central. This year he is 4-for-5 (80%) from beyond 50 yards and perfect on his 12 point-after-touchdown attempts.
Defense | Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7
Last year, the Steelers were in the middle of the pack with 40 sacks; this season, they already have 20 quarterback takedowns, and Cincinnati allows nearly three per tilt. Pittsburgh is third in the league with two takeaways per game, and Joe Flacco already has six picks, though none in his Bengals debut on Sunday.
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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7: Ja’Marr Chase
Ja’Marr Chase
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000
FanDuel: $13,200
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 19.33
FanDuel: 15.95
Joe Flacco was decent on Sunday, considering he had only a handful of days with his new team before taking on a tough Packers defense in Green Bay. Jake Browning had 27, 25 and 40 pass attempts in his three starts, while Flacco had 45 on Sunday.
This provides more opportunities for the dynamic duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, which in turn should help the running game see fewer loaded fronts.
This is the 18th NFL campaign for the 40-year-old, and while his best days are in the rearview mirror, he got volume at each of his stops. In his last 20 starts, spread over five seasons and three franchises, including two different stints with Cleveland, Flacco averaged 25 completions on 41 attempts (61%) for 264.7 yards, 1.6 touchdowns and 1.2 interceptions, plus 2.2 sacks.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page the venerable veteran is currently -115 to throw for more than 230.5 yards, -118 for under 37.5 pass attempts and +152 for more than 1.5 passing touchdowns. The numbers are far from gaudy, though he should keep the offense moving — touchdowns are likely to be a different story.
Tonight the Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have Chase slated for 10.2 targets, 6.7 receptions, 84.7 yards and a40% probability of scoring at touchdown. Higgins is looking at 7.2 opportunities as a median outcome, with 3.9 receptions, 50.2 yards and 25% likelihood of reaching pay dirt.
Andrei Iosivas was on the field for 80% of the offensive action, including a snap share of 90% or more in two of the last three tilts. He has only 17 targets and an 8.8 aDOT, with two red zone looks. He converted on only eight of his targets, though he averages 15.1 yards per reception. Flacco targeted him four times on Sunday, resulting in one 5-yard catch.
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Cincinnati Bengals Positional Preview
Running Back | Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7
Things have been rough for Chase Brown and his fantasy backers after he was a late-round darling last year. He had a tough row to hoe in the four games without Burrow, tallying 37 carries for 112 yards and turning 18 targets into 16 receptions and 76 yards. His lone touchdown of the season was in Cleveland during the opener.
Brown has a 63% snap share on the season, though he was between the lines on offense more than 55% of the time once in the last four matchups. Veteran Samaje Perine is back with the Bengals after seasons in Denver and Kansas City. He was in the mix when Brown was on the sidelines. Rookie Tahj Brooks saw all 10 of his offensive snaps in Week 3; he plays special teams most games, though not as a returner.
Be sure to tune into the Stokastic TNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Tight End | Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7
Flacco three 11 times to the tight end position, which bodes well for Noah Fant (4) and Tanner Hudson (5) going forward. Drew Sample did have two targets, but his snaps cratered to a 34% share, well below his 69% and 68% in Weeks 1 and 3. Mike Gesicki (pectoral) is now on the injured reserve, so that takes away the “lead” option, though Fant pressed him for target share when both were healthy.
Hudson is in the concussion protocol, which means Fant and Sample will be the main contributors at this position, with Cam Grandy (six targets in 10 games over the last two years) likely serving as the TE3 tonight.
Kicker | Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7
Evan McPherson has a scant eight field goal attempts through six games, missing two of three from 50-plus yards. He is perfect on his 11 extra-point attempts. Naturally, most of his games are in the elements, so his 81.3% career success rate over four seasons and change is more like an 87% conversion rate for a dome kicker.
Defense | Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7
Through four games, Rodgers has three interceptions for the only Pittsburgh turnovers, along with nine sacks. The Bungles have only 11 sacks in five games, though the defense does have a solid six interceptions, with one lonely fumble recovery.
NFL DFS Picks for Steelers-Bengals NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 7: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Steelers-Bengals
- Ja’Marr Chase: Saw a dozen targets from Flacco on Sunday!
- DK Metcalf: Everyone knows he is the top option; that still won’t help the Cincy defense.
- Jaylen Warren: Excellent fantasy point-per-dollar option, with strong floor and attainable upside.
- Joe Flacco: Likely to have more attempts than Rodgers; last rushing touchdown was two years before the pandemic.
- Aaron Rodgers: Yes, he can still buy time in the pocket, but he had one rushing touchdown in his last 45 regular season games, with 5.3 rushing yards per contest.
- Chase Brown: Safer floor than Higgins; more upside, and he is $16,000 cheaper on DraftKings. Brown has a $2,000 premium on FanDuel, though the half-PPR format on the blue site still gives him a better median fantasy point projection.
- Tee Higgins: Solid option, but touchdowns will be his pathway to being a DFS difference maker tonight.
- Jonnu Smith: The apple of Arthur’s eye.
- Chris Boswell: Only miss of the season from 50-plus was last week when he slipped on the Acrisure Stadium grass, which was replaced this week.
- Pittsburgh DST: Flacco is a steady-handed veteran, though he is behind a bad offensive line.
Secondary Options
- Evan McPherson: Great name, mediocre game the last season-plus; still is cheap predicable fantasy opportunities.
- Kenneth Gainwell: Cincy has been in the bottom 3 most of the season for fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
- Noah Fant: Last pass catcher remaining at this position for the Bengals.
- Darnell Washington: Rodgers has plenty of track record with throwing to tight ends.
- Drew Sample: While he is more known for his blocking, the 2019 second-round selection from the University of Washington is at least an above-replacement-level receiver. More appealing on DraftKings ($600), though still a fine discount differentiation option on FanDuel ($1,600) for those crafting north of 20 lineups.
Lottery Tickets
- Andrei Iosivas: Meh, but he is on the field A LOT!!!
- Samaje Perine: Appears to be the clear RB2; mostly used in passing situations, but likely to see three or four carries.
- Cincinnati DST: Will need a splash play like a pick-6, scoop-and-score or a kick return touchdown to be relevant.
- Pat Freiermuth, Scotty Miller, Roman Wilson, Connor Heyward and Ben Skowronek: All will see the field; combined this motley crew projects for a tick shy of eight targets.
- Kaleb Johnson: Needs mop-up duty or something to happen to one of his counterparts.
- Mitch Tinsley, Charlie Jones, Ke’Shawn Williams, Tahj Brooks, Brooks Brothers, Cam Grandy and Candy Gram: Thanks, but no.
