The NFL is treating fans to a double-header on Monday Night Football. The action starts with the New Orleans Saints vs. the Carolina Panthers, with the Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steeler kicking off an hour later. That means we’ll get a “standard” slate of OwnersBox NFL DFS and a whole lot more DFS options to choose from. Let’s take a look at the best place in Stokastic’s custom OwnersBox DFS projections in terms of value and ownership for Monday night’s slate.
OwnersBox NFL DFS Picks: Saints-Panthers, Browns-Steelers
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Top Projected NFL DFS Plays
Nick Chubb – $7,000
The highest overall projection on Monday’s slate belongs to Nick Chubb. The bruising running back is now in his six seasons with the Browns. He has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons and nearly broke the 1,000-yard mark in his rookie season, posting 996 rushing yards in 2018. Chubb is well on his way to another big year after carrying the ball eighteen times in Week 1 for 106 yards. He also chipped in four receptions last week.
Chubb has the highest projection and one of the highest floors on this OwnersBox NFL DFS slate. There’s little question that Cleveland wants to get him the ball. It’s hard to see him getting fewer than those 18-22 touches he got in Week 1. Chubb projects for 15.68 fantasy points to lead all players on the slate. The problem? He is currently expected to grab north of 80% ownership. You’re likely to need Nick Chubb, but that is still pretty heavy chalk, even for a short slate. Chubb is a tough fade, but you’ll have to be mindful of ownership and roster combinations when you plug him into your lineup Monday.
Deshaun Watson – $6,200
All four games on this slate are expected to be close, and all four teams on this slate have implied team totals hovering around twenty points. That said, it isn’t leaving the projections as bunched up because of the way the usage distributes across these teams. Two guys stand out in the Browns pecking order. The aforementioned Chubb tops the touches hierarchy in Cleveland, but he is followed closely by Deshaun Watson.
Watson projects for 15.64 fantasy points. That’s a little less than Chubb, but at $6,200 he rates as the stronger point-per-dollar value play for OwnersBox DFS on Monday. He is picking up 59.9% ownership, which makes Watson the highest owned quarterback on the slate. Watson threw for 159 yards on 29 pass attempts in Week 1. He notched one passing touchdown and one interception. The real damage came with his legs. Watson had 45 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. Those rushing numbers are key for Watson’s upside. Four of the quarterbacks on this slate can run the ball, and it could very well be the one who does so the most on Monday that is in winning GPP lineups.
On bigger slates, rostering Watson along with Chubb could be tricky given the negative correlation between the two players. That’s still the case on Monday’s two-gamer, but it’s mitigated by the smaller range of possibilities given that there are just two games.
Chris Olave – $6,400
Chris Olave leads the receiver options on Monday’s NFL DFS slate. His 14.61 fantasy point projection is nearly three points ahead of the next best wideout option, Michael Thomas, who is at just 11.83 fantasy points. The Saints only scored one touchdown in Week 1, but that didn’t stop them from putting up serious air yardage. Derek Carr threw for over 300 yards, 112 of them going to Olave.
The second year wideout from Ohio State is getting a lot of attention on Monday. He is currently projecting for 58.4% ownership. Those rates make sense though given how far he stands out above Thomas and the rest of the options on this slate. The Saints also have Rashid Shaheed ($4,600) and Juwan Johnson ($3,900) so there are plenty of ways to stack this team up.
Top NFL DFS Value Plays
Derek Carr – $6,200
The best value play on the board this Monday is also one of the top projected players on the slate. Derek Carr projects for 14.87 points, which is actually a bit better than Olave. Unlike his teammate, Carr is priced down relative to other players at his position. The $6,200 price tag makes Carr the top point-per-dollar player for OwnersBox DFS.
The former Las Vegas Raider isn’t mobile, be he knows how to rack up air yards. Carr threw for 3,522 yards in 2022. He piled up over 4,000 passing yards in four straight seasons prior to last year. His highest output was in 2021, also with the Raiders. Carr threw for just north of 4,800 yards in that campaign.
The Saints picked up Carr to boost their passing attack, exemplified by their 300-yard performance in Week 1. They didn’t use Jamaal Williams on the ground as much as NFL DFS players expected. If we see more of the same, Carr could be the guy you need on Monday’s slate.
Pat Freiermuth – $3,800
Now in his third NFL season, Pat Freiermuth is expected to be one of the main targets in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense. Freiermuth had a quiet Week 1, posting just one catch on four targets, but he caught over sixty passes in his first two years as a pro. It’s likely that Pickett and Freiermuth will find their connection on Monday. The chances of that happening are improved with Diontae Johnson sidelined with a hamstring injury. Johnson’s absence could funnel targets to Freiermuth, as well as WR George Pickens.
Freiermuth projects for 8.91 fantasy points and 47.2% ownership for MNF OwnersBox NFL DFS. He is the top projected player at the tight end position, ahead of Cleveland’s Dabid Njoku ($4,100) by over .5 points. The key difference is Freiermuth’s price, which is less than Njoku’s and the Saints top TE, Juwan Johnson ($3,900). Freiermuth is also the best point-per-dollar player outside of the quarterback position on this entire slate. He’ll find his way into a lot of lineups, especially as a stacking option with Kenny Pickett.
![College football Week 5 continues with a four-game Friday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let's get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Friday, Sept. 29. CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Friday, Sept. 29 Quarterback Emory Jones ($6,900): The top price-adjusted quarterback on the slate, Emory Jones, and the Cincinnati Bearcats are 2-point favorites over BYU in a game with a 48 total. Jones averages 242.5 passing yards per game on 31 attempts. He also has elite mobility, with 32 designed attempts through four games. Hank Bachmeier ($5,800): Hank Bachmeier should have a better chance to play this game after being available "in case of emergency" last week. Louisiana Tech ranks 63rd in pace and passes 55.6% of the time. This makes whoever starts at quarterback a strong value. Jack Turner played well in place of Bachmeier last week and actually looks to provide decent mobility. If Bachmeier misses, Turner is an easy swap option. Jack Plummer ($8,500): On a relatively weak quarterback slate, Jack Plummer stands out between the pair of expensive options. Louisville comes in as a 3-point favorite over North Carolina State in a game with a 55.5 total. Plummer has averaged 280 passing yards per game and is hyper-efficient. The North Carolina State defense projects to provide little resistance, allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Plummer also has 13 designed rush attempts this year, which helps prevent the negative rushing stats from early in his career. the_ad id="340345"] Running Back Jawhar Jordan ($7,000): Louisville has begun to feature Jawhar Jordan at the expense of Isaac Guerendo and Maurice Turner. Jordan has 18 carries in back-to-back games and four targets in that span. His route rate has also eclipsed 50% in those two games. Jacob Fields ($3,700): Louisiana Tech is dealing with injuries to Keith Willis Jr., Charvis Thornton and Tyre Shelton. Marquis Crosby has also yet to play this year. If this injury situation breaks right, Jacob Fields should lead a committee also featuring Keldric Moody. This is a pure late-news situation. L.J. Martin ($5,100): Corey Kiner ($4,700): Ryan Montgomery left last week's game with an injury, allowing Corey Kiner to receiver more work. He finished with 10 carries and three targets in a decisive loss to Oklahoma. His workload stands to increase in more competitive games. Watch Montgomery's status ahead of kickoff. Jaylon Glover ($5,000): Utah already lost Micah Bernard for the year, and Ja'Quinden Jackson enters this game with the questionable tag. If out, Jaylon Glover projects to handle a feature back workload. Last week he saw 25 carries and one target. Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s' college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now! Wide Receiver Isaac Rex ($4,700): Despite coming in as a slight underdog, BYU still ranks 58th in pace and passes 57.4% of the time. Tight end Isaac Rex not only paces the team in targets (34), but he has the best route rate of the group as well. Smoke Harris ($6,800): One of the premier receivers on the slate, Smoke Harris averages 73.4 receiving yards per game on a 26.9% target share. In the Louisiana Tech offense this equates to 8.6 targets per game. Braden Smith ($4,200): Braden Smith ranks second on Cincinnati with 22 targets this year, averaging 49.5 yards per game. He projects as one of the top price-adjusted receivers on the slate. Jamari Thrash ($6,600):  Jamari Thrash is one of the most explosive receivers in college football, averaging 100 yards per game behind a 25.2% target share. With little salary restrictions on this slate, Thrash should be a priority.
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