OwnersBox NFL DFS Picks: Saints, Browns Popping on MNF Slate (September 18)

The NFL is treating fans to a double-header on Monday Night Football. The action starts with the New Orleans Saints vs. the Carolina Panthers, with the Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steeler kicking off an hour later. That means we’ll get a “standard” slate of OwnersBox NFL DFS and a whole lot more DFS options to choose from. Let’s take a look at the best place in Stokastic’s custom OwnersBox DFS projections in terms of value and ownership for Monday night’s slate.

OwnersBox NFL DFS Picks: Saints-Panthers, Browns-Steelers

Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.  

Top Projected NFL DFS Plays

Nick Chubb – $7,000

The highest overall projection on Monday’s slate belongs to Nick Chubb. The bruising running back is now in his six seasons with the Browns. He has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons and nearly broke the 1,000-yard mark in his rookie season, posting 996 rushing yards in 2018. Chubb is well on his way to another big year after carrying the ball eighteen times in Week 1 for 106 yards. He also chipped in four receptions last week.

Chubb has the highest projection and one of the highest floors on this OwnersBox NFL DFS slate. There’s little question that Cleveland wants to get him the ball. It’s hard to see him getting fewer than those 18-22 touches he got in Week 1. Chubb projects for 15.68 fantasy points to lead all players on the slate. The problem? He is currently expected to grab north of 80% ownership. You’re likely to need Nick Chubb, but that is still pretty heavy chalk, even for a short slate. Chubb is a tough fade, but you’ll have to be mindful of ownership and roster combinations when you plug him into your lineup Monday.

Deshaun Watson – $6,200

All four games on this slate are expected to be close, and all four teams on this slate have implied team totals hovering around twenty points. That said, it isn’t leaving the projections as bunched up because of the way the usage distributes across these teams. Two guys stand out in the Browns pecking order. The aforementioned Chubb tops the touches hierarchy in Cleveland, but he is followed closely by Deshaun Watson.

Watson projects for 15.64 fantasy points. That’s a little less than Chubb, but at $6,200 he rates as the stronger point-per-dollar value play for OwnersBox DFS on Monday. He is picking up 59.9% ownership, which makes Watson the highest owned quarterback on the slate. Watson threw for 159 yards on 29 pass attempts in Week 1. He notched one passing touchdown and one interception. The real damage came with his legs. Watson had 45 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. Those rushing numbers are key for Watson’s upside. Four of the quarterbacks on this slate can run the ball, and it could very well be the one who does so the most on Monday that is in winning GPP lineups.

On bigger slates, rostering Watson along with Chubb could be tricky given the negative correlation between the two players. That’s still the case on Monday’s two-gamer, but it’s mitigated by the smaller range of possibilities given that there are just two games.

Chris Olave – $6,400

Chris Olave leads the receiver options on Monday’s NFL DFS slate. His 14.61 fantasy point projection is nearly three points ahead of the next best wideout option, Michael Thomas, who is at just 11.83 fantasy points. The Saints only scored one touchdown in Week 1, but that didn’t stop them from putting up serious air yardage. Derek Carr threw for over 300 yards, 112 of them going to Olave.

The second year wideout from Ohio State is getting a lot of attention on Monday. He is currently projecting for 58.4% ownership. Those rates make sense though given how far he stands out above Thomas and the rest of the options on this slate. The Saints also have Rashid Shaheed ($4,600) and Juwan Johnson ($3,900) so there are plenty of ways to stack this team up.

React App

Top NFL DFS Value Plays

Derek Carr – $6,200

The best value play on the board this Monday is also one of the top projected players on the slate. Derek Carr projects for 14.87 points, which is actually a bit better than Olave. Unlike his teammate, Carr is priced down relative to other players at his position. The $6,200 price tag makes Carr the top point-per-dollar player for OwnersBox DFS.

The former Las Vegas Raider isn’t mobile, be he knows how to rack up air yards. Carr threw for 3,522 yards in 2022. He piled up over 4,000 passing yards in four straight seasons prior to last year. His highest output was in 2021, also with the Raiders. Carr threw for just north of 4,800 yards in that campaign.

The Saints picked up Carr to boost their passing attack, exemplified by their 300-yard performance in Week 1. They didn’t use Jamaal Williams on the ground as much as NFL DFS players expected. If we see more of the same, Carr could be the guy you need on Monday’s slate.

Pat Freiermuth – $3,800

Now in his third NFL season, Pat Freiermuth is expected to be one of the main targets in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense. Freiermuth had a quiet Week 1, posting just one catch on four targets, but he caught over sixty passes in his first two years as a pro. It’s likely that Pickett and Freiermuth will find their connection on Monday. The chances of that happening are improved with Diontae Johnson sidelined with a hamstring injury. Johnson’s absence could funnel targets to Freiermuth, as well as WR George Pickens.

Freiermuth projects for 8.91 fantasy points and 47.2% ownership for MNF OwnersBox NFL DFS. He is the top projected player at the tight end position, ahead of Cleveland’s Dabid Njoku ($4,100) by over .5 points. The key difference is Freiermuth’s price, which is less than Njoku’s and the Saints top TE, Juwan Johnson ($3,900). Freiermuth is also the best point-per-dollar player outside of the quarterback position on this entire slate. He’ll find his way into a lot of lineups, especially as a stacking option with Kenny Pickett.


onwersbox promo code + subdeal


Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
MLB Lineup Study
MLB Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
NHL Discord Server
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
PGA Lineup Study
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
Formula 1 Projections
F1 Discord Server
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics