Welcome back to The Perfect Lineup, where every day we try to build the best DraftKings MLB DFS lineup using the Stokastic tools, a bit of game theory and a healthy dose of chaos. Today’s slate: A pitching mess. The heat wave isn’t helping either. But we still have the tools — and a few solid arms — to piece together a winning MLB DFS roster. We will attack this DraftKings slate with those pitcher picks and some stack targets to get a high-ROI lineup from the Sims.
Perfect DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup: Optimal Strategy
Top Pitchers for Your DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup
Let’s be clear: Tonight’s slate stinks for pitching. But that’s where we can gain leverage.
SP1: Spencer Schwellenbach
Schwellenbach enters tonight’s slate as one of the few pitchers with a stable floor and respectable ceiling. Sporting a 24% strikeout rate and walking just 4% of batters, he’s demonstrated efficiency and command all season. Perhaps more importantly on this messy slate, he’s worked at least seven innings in more than half his starts (7 of 13), giving him volume-based upside that’s increasingly rare in today’s game. He’ll take the mound at Citi Field against the struggling Mets, and while hitting weather is a factor around the league due to a nationwide heat wave, New York remains one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in play. Schwellenbach’s durability and command make him an appealing SP1 on a slate where very few arms stand out.
SP2: Chad Patrick
Patrick might feel like an overpay on most slates, but tonight he’s one of the most viable options simply due to context. His matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates — who have the second-lowest implied total on the board — puts him squarely in the value conversation. Patrick has a 23% strikeout rate and is far more effective at home, where this game will take place. His price point opens up roster flexibility, and he may even be viable as an SP1 if you want to pay down and stack more expensive bats. On a slate lacking in aces, Patrick’s steady production and matchup-based ceiling make him a logical fit.
Honorable Mentions
- Brian Wu (SEA): Similar profile to Schwellenbach; efficient innings, low volatility.
- Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): Great value, but watch out — fly ball pitcher in 90-degree Chicago heat.
- Bailey Ober (MIN): In a low-total game versus Seattle; worth a look.
This slate might force uncomfortable pitching decisions. That’s OK. That’s where leverage is found.
Top DraftKings MLB DFS Stack: Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are the top stack in Stokastic’s model, grading out No. 1 when factoring in top stack percentage, value and MLB DFS ownership projections leverage. They rank second in both top stack percentage and value score, but just third in projected ownership — making them a high-upside, underutilized option. Facing off against Jack Kochanowicz and the Los Angeles Angels, Boston gets a matchup that skews heavily in their favor.
- Kochanowicz can’t miss bats (12% strikeout rate to lefties, 16% to righties).
- 0.202 xISO to lefties since 2024 = home run risk.
- Boston’s lefties are well positioned to do damage.
- Despite a below-average lineup and road splits, Boston still grades as league average in ISO — and that’s enough on this slate.
This lineup has power throughout and benefits from a matchup where contact is almost guaranteed — and hard contact at that.
Red SoxStack Targets
- Jarren Duran (OF) — Speed + power, ideal leadoff.
- Wilyer Abreu (OF) — Strong splits and price-adjusted value.
- Marcelo Mayer (2B/3B) — Cheap with multi-positional flexibility.
- Trevor Story (SS) — Boom/bust upside.
- Omar Narvaez (C) — Correlated value with the stack.
Simulation Results
Using Stokastic’s Single Lineup Simulator, here’s how the perfect DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup shapes up:
If you’re looking to adjust for salary or ownership, use the lineup simulator to swap arms or pivot stacks — and re-run your build with one click.
