If you’re playing DraftKings MLB DFS tonight, buckle up — because this slate is shaping up to be wild. From scorching nationwide temps (except in Anaheim and San Diego) to volatile strikeout props and sneaky stacks, there’s a lot to dissect. But don’t worry — we’ve done the heavy lifting for you. This is The Perfect DraftKings Lineup, a daily build where Josh Engleman and Dave Loughran use Stokastic’s Sims to construct the most profitable MLB DFS lineup on the slate.
Perfect DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup: Optimal Strategy
Top Pitchers for Your DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup
Top Pitcher (SP1): Garrett Crochet — $11,000
If you’re fading Crochet tonight, you’re probably doing it wrong. He checks every box:
- 31% strikeout rate on the season
- Facing an Angels lineup with the highest strikeout rate against lefties (28%)
- Keeps righties to sub-.300 wOBA and sub-.100 ISO
- Cooler weather in Anaheim (just 68 degrees) compared to heatwaves across other MLB parks
And it gets better — Crochet has a 32% top-2 pitcher probability in Stokastic’s Top Pitcher Tool, higher than any other arm. Plus, his strikeout prop is unmatched tonight.
Contrarian Arm (SP2): Freddy Peralta — $9,200
Paying up for both starting pitchers can be tough on DraftKings, but Peralta is worth it:
- Pirates are bottom 3 in wOBA, 29th in ISO and strike out at a top-10 rate against righties
- Brewers are -218 moneyline favorites, second only to the Dodgers
- His strikeout prop and outs prop are both juiced to the over
This is a spot where Peralta checks all the boxes, and despite his slightly dipped 25% strikeout rate, he’s a premium arm with major upside.
Honorable Mentions
- Framber Valdez: Strong ground ball profile and strikeout upside
- Kris Bubic: Virtually unowned, great pivot for GPPs at $9,000
- Tyler Anderson: Viable as a low-end SP2 for Coors stacks
Top DraftKings MLB DFS Stack: Padres
San Diego may not offer ideal weather or park factors tonight — with temperatures around 68 degrees and a generally pitcher-friendly environment — but the numbers tell a different story. The Padres rank fifth in Top Stack Percentage, second in Top Value and third in overall Stack Score according to Stokastic’s tools, making them a top-tier option despite flying under the radar with just the seventh-highest projected ownership. That combination of value and leverage is what makes them so appealing.
The real edge comes from Trevor Williams’ vulnerability to lefties — he’s allowing a .418 wOBA and a .200 ISO over 700-plus pitches this season. That sets up San Diego’s left-handed bats for serious damage in this spot.
Padres Stack Targets
- Luis Arraez
- Jake Cronenworth
- Jackson Merrill
- Xander Bogaerts
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
Simulation Results
Once we clicked Run Simulation in Stokastic’s Single Lineup Simulator, here’s how the perfect DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup shapes up:
Tonight’s slate might be chaotic, but with elite pitching, undervalued stacks, and powerful data, you’re equipped to build the perfect DraftKings MLB DFS lineup.
