UFC Fight Night DFS Picks: Back Yair Rodriguez’s Dynamic Striking

Let’s dive into the next installment of our UFC DFS series, focusing on UFC Fight Night DFS picks where we identify optimal value and plays. Yair Rodriguez is one of the fighters we’re homing in on for Saturday night. Let’s explore other contenders on the card.

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UFC Fight Night DFS Picks: Yair Rodriguez & More

Yair Rodriguez

Rodriguez is set to face Brian Ortega, with a probable opportunity at the newly crowned champion, Ilya Topuria, at stake. Rodriguez’s last bout in the Octagon was a defeat to former champion Alexander Volkanovski. However, there’s no shame in that. His only two losses inside the cage have been to the division’s two longest-reigning champions.

Interestingly, Ortega’s last fight was also against Rodriguez. Unfortunately, the fight ended in Round 1 due to a shoulder injury Ortega sustained. Ortega’s two previous losses mirror Rodriguez’s, having suffered defeats to Volkanovski and Max Holloway. His last win dates back to October 2020.

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I lean towards Rodriguez in this fight. Rodriguez is undeniably the more dynamic striker, a factor I closely consider when making UFC DFS plays. Furthermore, Ortega’s layoff due to his shoulder injury poses a significant problem. Although Rodriguez lost to Volkanovski, his seven-month break to reflect on his defeat against a Hall of Famer puts him in a stronger position for this fight. This kind of situation can ignite a fire, particularly when a victory could lead to a title shot.

Ortega is unquestionably a formidable opponent, but I struggle to see him winning this fight by anything other than a submission. If that doesn’t occur, it’ll likely be Rodriguez dominating the stand-up exchanges and winning on points. I’m comfortable with that at $8,500.

Edgar Chairez

Chairez is the second-largest favorite on the card, trailing only Yazmin Jauregui. However, he has the highest odds of winning the fight within the distance. Stokastic’s UFC Top Fighters tool estimates this at 68%, with the win possibly coming from either strikes or a submission. This fight was initially held in September 2023, but was ruled a no-contest due to a premature stoppage. Before that fight, Chairez lost a unanimous decision to Tatsuro Taira in his UFC debut.

This choice is more of a bet against Lacerda, who has a 0-4 record in the UFC, with all four losses being finishes. It’s remarkable that he’s even getting another fight. Given Chairez’s price, a finish is necessary to justify the salary, but considering Lacerda’s history, it seems almost certain. This is not a situation to opt for an underdog.

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Manuel Torres

Torres, priced at $8,300, surprisingly has the second-best odds of finishing any fighter on the card, a rarity for his salary bracket. He is on a five-fight winning streak, with his two most recent victories in the UFC and another in the Contender Series in 2021. On the other hand, Duncan is also on a four-fight winning streak, with his latest two victories in the UFC and his third in the Contender Series.

According to betting odds, Torres has a higher likelihood of a finish, but if he fails to do so, Duncan is favored in a decision. Considering my aim to maximize my DFS score, Torres appears to be the safer bet. He has roughly a 50/50 chance to win this fight inside the distance.

From a UFC DFS perspective, it’s hard to overlook someone like Torres at that price given his odds of a finish. As for betting , I’m intrigued by the concept of a safety net with a small bet on Duncan via decision, which is currently around +800.

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Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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