It is now Week 10 of the NFL regular season as teams start to separate in the standings, and there is more understanding of who each team really is. There are four teams on a bye this week and a game in Germany, so the main slate has 10 games. This article features four boom candidates for NFL DFS picks in Week 10, including Tyreek Hill, and four bust/fade options at each position on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NFL DFS Picks Week 10: Best High-Upside Plays
NFL DFS Picks Week 10 Boom Picks
QB Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
With Josh Allen and Kyler Murray questionable, Patrick Mahomes may find himself in his own pricing tier at quarterback this week. Even if Allen and Murray play, Mahomes looks like the best option on the slate as the Chiefs have a slate-high 30 implied point total. Mahomes is really starting to find his groove lately. He has thrown for over 400 yards in back-to-back games as he leads the league in both passing yards and touchdowns. Paying up for Mahomes on this main slate is a strong play given that he has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings.
There will be others who go back to Justin Fields after his incredible game last week and rightfully so, but spending more for Mahomes feels like the safest bet. He is extremely consistent while providing a ceiling that not many quarterbacks can reach, making him a tough fade in this spot. The Chiefs host the Jaguars as nearly double-digit favorites. There are two teams that have a 100 Top Stack Rating this week, and that would be the Chiefs and the Dolphins. Our Stokastic projections have Mahomes with the highest projection on the slate. Stack the Chiefs’ aerial attack with Mahomes and print money.
RB Dameon Pierce – Houston Texans
DraftKings – $6,300; 18.0% Boom | FanDuel – $7,700; 11.9% Boom
The Houston Texans may only have one win this season, but rookie Dameon Pierce is a budding star. Finally getting the workload that he deserves, Pierce rushed for a career-high 139 yards last week against the Eagles. Flying back to the east coast, the Texans will play the Giants, who are somehow 6-2 this season. Paying down for Pierce on DraftKings at a very cheap $6,300 price tag is a great move for cash games this week. He is the only player on the slate who has above a 30% optimal percentage and also leads all running backs on DraftKings in boom percentage.
Despite being 6-2, the Giants have been torched on the ground this season. Their defense ranks 24th in rush DVOA, as they are allowing 137.3 rushing yards per game. If Pierce finds the end zone at least once this week there is a strong chance that he may break the slate on DraftKings. He is the best value in our Stokastic projections for a non-quarterback and the Texans are only five-point road underdogs. Pierce is the highest-owned player on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. Lock him into your cash game builds as he is one of the best values on the slate for both sites.
WR Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins
DraftKings – $9,100; 19.4% Boom | FanDuel – $9,000; 21.3% Boom
It is crazy that both Mahomes and Hill are still playing at an elite level without each other. Hill leads the league with 1,104 receiving yards and 76 receptions. He is on pace for 143 catches and 2,085 receiving yards in his first season with the Dolphins. The NFL records of 149 catches and 1,964 yards are in danger if he keeps this up. His connection with Tua Tagovailoa and involvement in the Dolphins’ offense is elite. Hill has the second-highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week and is the best stud wide receiver on the slate.
The Dolphins are 3.5-point home favorites against the Browns, who rank 24th in total defense DVOA this season. With a 26.5 team total, expect Hill and the Dolphins to put up another big game this week. Hill also has a 31.1% target share, which is the second-highest behind Cooper Kupp in the league. He has over 143 receiving yards in three of his last four games and arguably the biggest ceiling on the slate. The Dolphins have the highest Top Stack percentage and Hill is a major reason why. Make sure to get exposure to this electric pass catcher in a great matchup against the Browns.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs
DraftKings – $7,800; 20.3% Boom | FanDuel – $8,500; 24.7% Boom
Finally, a stud tight end is back on the main slate. Pairing Mahomes with Travis Kelce is arguably the best way to attack this slate in tournaments. Kelce has the highest boom percentage on both sites as there is no tight end even close to his upside. He leads the Chiefs in target share, receptions, targets, yards and touchdowns. Those are important numbers when your quarterback is one of the best ever to throw the ball. Kelce’s seven receiving touchdowns are tied for the league lead with Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs, two elite wide receivers. Don’t get cut, play Kelce with Mahomes this week.
With a 30-implied team total and how much Kelce is involved in what the Chiefs do on offense, it is hard to see him failing in this spot. The Jaguars rank 27th in pass defense DVOA as they are allowing 238.3 yards through the air this season. If Mahomes is going to throw for over 400 yards again, Kelce will find a way to get to the 100-yard bonus. After his four-touchdown performance against the Raiders, Kelce hasn’t scored for three-straight weeks. The Chiefs will make sure to get him in the end zone. Kelce is the best tight end and arguably the best play on the slate given how weak the position is.
NFL DFS Picks Week 10 Busts/Fades
QB Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings – $7,200; 58.2% Bust | FanDuel – $7,800; 44.6% Bust
As previously mentioned, Murray is questionable but has practiced in a limited fashion so it would be a shock if he didn’t suit up this week. The Cardinals find themselves in a tough road division matchup against the Rams as 1.5-point underdogs. Both teams have lost two in a row and are three wins back of the surprising Seahawks, who are 6-3 this season. This game has a 40.5 total, which is the third-lowest on the slate. Six of the Cardinals’ last seven road games have gone under the total points line, so don’t expect this NFC West rivalry game to be a shootout.
It has been a tough year for the Cardinals’ offense. They rank 30th in total DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA this season. Murray has a career-low 47.8 QBR, which ranks 21st among all quarterbacks. He has taken 24 sacks and his rushing attempts are way down this year compared to previous seasons. Dealing with a hamstring injury, it will be tough for Murray to extend plays and even run when nothing is open, which limits his ceiling. The Cardinals have one of the worst Top Stack Ratings this week and Murray is the main reason why. Murray’s injury and this tough game environment make him a fade this week.
RB Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns
DraftKings – $8,100; 61.3% Bust | FanDuel – $9,000; 51.0% Bust
Browns running back Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing touchdowns and is second behind Derrick Henry in yards, averaging 105.1 per game. However, his bust percentage is staggering on both sites in this matchup against the Dolphins. He may be a popular bring-back in Dolphins stacks, but his lack of pass-game usage is concerning. Chubb only has 10 receptions through eight games, as most of his work comes on the ground. Even with most of his production coming from the ground, Chubb only ranks 14th in rush attempts this season.
The spread is relatively low, but the Dolphins could easily run away with this game if they get cooking on offense. Their defense is also more susceptible to the pass than the run. They rank 31st in pass DVOA and seventh in rush DVOA this season, making them a pass-funnel defense. That doesn’t bode well for Chubb going up against this stout Dolphins run defense. Our Stokastic projections have Chubb eighth in fantasy points for both DraftKings and FanDuel at the running back position this week, making him one of the biggest busts on the slate.
WR DeAndre Hopkins – Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings – $8,000; 60.4% Bust | FanDuel – $8,300; 48.3% Bust
Similar to Murray, DeAndre Hopkins is rating out very poorly in our Boom/Bust tool for this week. This game in general looks like a fade in terms of fantasy production. It should be a great game, but not for fantasy purposes. In his three games played since returning from suspension, Hopkins has two games where he had double-digit receptions. However, in his last game, Hopkins only had five targets, which resulted in four receptions for only 36 yards. The disgruntled Hopkins had some choice words for Murray on the sideline last game, so we’ll see what this struggling offense can come up with this week.
Hopkins will get the Jalen Ramsey treatment, which hasn’t gone well recently. In his four games with the Cardinals against the Rams, Hopkins has averaged 5.3 receptions and 52 receiving yards per game with only one touchdown. He has been peppered with 10.8 targets per game, but only has a 48.8% catch percentage during those games. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Hopkins have double-digit targets in this game, but with Ramsey shadowing him, Murray being questionable and this game environment, there are too many variables for Hopkins to overcome this week.
TE T.J. Hockenson – Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings – $5,300; 53.2% Bust | FanDuel – $6,000; 41.7% Bust
New acquired tight end T.J. Hockenson had a strong first game with the Vikings in their come-from-behind victory over the Commanders last week. Hockenson caught all nine passes thrown to him for 70 total yards, which was the third-most yards he has gained all season. The Vikings are only 3.5-point road underdogs, as quarterback Allen is looking like he may miss this game. Even if this game is close, the Bills’ defense ranks fourth in total DVOA, allowing only 299.6 total yards per game this season.
Hockenson is the second-highest-priced tight end on DraftKings and tied for fourth on FanDuel. There is a big gap from Kelce down to Hockenson, but there is also a big gap in talent between those two. Hockenson has a high bust percentage based on this tough matchup on the road against Bills Mafia. The Vikings are tied for the second-lowest Top Stack Rating on the slate and even though they were able to get Hockenson involved early, they still have Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, who demand a high target share. Just pay up for Kelce.
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