After a very successful Week 1 for this Boom/Bust article, Week 2 provides a completely different slate. There are several key offenses who are not playing on the main slate, which forces DFS players to dive a little deeper into each team.
There is no easy way out for Week 2, so let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end positions for NFL DFS picks.
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NFL DFS Picks Week 2: Best High-Upside Plays
QB Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings – $5,700; 13.3% Boom | FanDuel – $7,500; 9.0% Boom
Similar to Jalen Hurts last week, there seems to be a clear-cut quarterback option for cash this week and that would be San Francisco 49ers Trey Lance. He played in what looked like a monsoon last week in Chicago, so it is hard to really get anything from that game moving forward. Lance was 13-28 for 164 yards and one interception. Terrible passing numbers, but again like Hurts, Lance can do a ton with his young legs. Last week he ran the ball 13 times for 54 yards. This week Lance and the 49ers will play the Seattle Seahawks at home who are coming off a very emotional Week 1 victory.
Don’t write off Lance after a bad first week playing in those conditions because he is coming in with the highest boom percentage on both sites at the quarterback position. The main slate doesn’t have many top tier quarterback options this week, so this position is going to be wide open and ownership will likely be very spread out. Two more key factors which should help Lance out is the potential return of elite tight end George Kittle and having Eli Mitchell being injured. Not only will Lance get one of his best receiving weapons back from injury, but he could be forced to take on more of the running duties as well.
RB Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos
DraftKings – $6,500; 17.1% Boom | FanDuel – $7,300; 12.9% Boom
Another incredible value play comes at the running back position with Denver Broncos Javonte Williams. It is hard to predict that Williams will collect 11 catches again this week, but the discount he got from playing on Monday Night Football is significant. The 11 receptions from Williams were the second most among the entire league in Week 1. He also averaged 6.1 yards per carry, but only had seven carries as the Broncos were playing from behind for most of the night against the Seattle Seahawks.
There is a strong case for the Broncos to have a big bounce-back performance this week as they host the Houston Texans as double-digit favorites. Many thought this Broncos backfield would be a near 50-50 split timeshare with Williams and Melvin Gordon III, but Williams played 58% of the offensive snaps to Gordon’s 41% and Williams also had a 29.3% target share, leading the team. Even with several top tier running backs on this slate, Williams leads them all on DraftKings with the highest boom percentage and has a 23.3% chance of being in the optimal lineup. Pair that with a double-digit leverage percentage, and Williams is arguably the best value on the main slate.
WR Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams
DraftKings – $9,900; 18.9% Boom | FanDuel – $9,700; 21.6% Boom
After saving with the boom quarterback and running back, it’s time to lock in the highest-priced player on the slate with Cooper Kupp. Not only is Kupp nearing a five-figure salary, but he has the second-highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. If there was any doubt that Kupp would slow down or Matthew Stafford‘s elbow injury would affect his production, that can all be put to rest now after his 13 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown.
The Rams have the highest implied total on the slate at 29 points as they are double digit home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons who allowed 27 points against the New Orleans Saints last week. It was a little odd that Allen Robinson II only had two targets all game, but it goes to show that it may take some time for him to jell with Stafford. In the meantime, expect Kupp to continue to be a usage hog. He had a 36.6% target share in Week 1 and the Rams got blown out 31-10. Kupp’s 1,927 yards receiving last year were the second most of all time. The price has come up drastically, but Kupp is still a phenomenal play in a great spot again this week.
TE Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings – $5,400; 19.4% Boom | FanDuel – $5,900; 22.3% Boom
Last week it was pretty obvious that Travis Kelce was the best tight end on the main slate. This week the same can be said for Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts. He is another bounce-back candidate after an abysmal two receptions and 19 yards in Week 1. Pitts is notoriously known for having a ton of targets, air yards and expected fantasy points, but failing to deliver. Getting into a flow with quarterback Marcus Mariota may take some time, but Pitts did tie rookie Drake London with seven targets in the first week.
His lackluster Week 1 could’ve been due to the New Orleans Saints defense. Last season, in two games in that matchup, Pitts only recorded five total catches for 70 yards and was held without a touchdown. The Los Angeles Rams just allowed 418 total yards against the Buffalo Bills last week. The Falcons offense is far from the Bills caliber, but they should be passing early and often as double-digit underdogs. Seeing Pitts below $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel feels like incredible value. With a few very high-priced players, getting Pitts in at this price feels like an absolute steal. After all, he leads the slate on both sites with the highest boom percentage. It is very difficult to ignore Pitts in this spot, especially as a bring-back option in a Rams stack.
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QB Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings – $7,500; 47.4% Bust | FanDuel – $8,500; 41.3% Bust
The last two games that Kyler Murray has played have been disastrous. Last week, Murray threw for 193 yards on 22 completions. Eight of those 22 completions went to running backs, while seven went to slot wide receiver Greg Dortch. Murray looked lost as the Cardinals lost 44-21. The other game Murray was atrocious in was the playoffs against the Rams where he threw for 137 yards and two interceptions. Being the most expensive quarterback on the slate is tough to get behind with what Murray has done recently.
There is a chance that he will get wide receiver Rondale Moore back into action, but even with that it will be hard for Murray to pay off this price tag on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders. A benefit to playing Murray is the total of 51.5 points is the highest on the slate. However this line has moved from -2.5 to -5.5 in favor of the Raiders and the Cardinals team total has dropped from 24.25 to 23 points. Every little line move and statistic matters when finding an edge in DFS and paying up for Murray feels like a waste of salary on this slate. He has the second-highest bust percentage of all quarterbacks on this slate and being the highest-priced option, that is certainly not good.
RB Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals
DraftKings – $7,200; 58.8% Bust | FanDuel – $8,300; 52.0% Bust
Pairing the Cincinnati Bengals with Joe Mixon may be a popular route this week due to the workload that Mixon saw in Week 1. Even though it was an overtime game, Mixon had 27 carries and seven receptions on nine targets. An injury to Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins helped boost those numbers, but Higgins is projected to be back in the lineup this week. Even with all of that usage, Mixon averaged exactly three yards per carry and was held out of the end zone. Of all the players on the main slate, Mixon has the lowest leverage score of them all on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Pair that with an over 50% bust rate and Mixon could be in a for a very tough day against the Dallas Cowboys.
Even though the Cowboys may struggle moving the ball with a backup quarterback, their bend but don’t break defense may cause the Bengals some fits. Dating back to 2020, Mixon only has four games where he has topped 100 yards rushing. His ceiling seems to be a little limited and that is also displayed in the Boom/Bust Tool. Mixon on both sites is the fifth-highest priced running back yet has the 11th-highest ceiling. Don’t fall into the Mixon and Bengals defense paired trap; there is enough very quality running backs on this slate.
WR Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DraftKings – $6,800; 41.4% Bust | FanDuel – $8,300; 42.2% Bust
There is a lot of history behind this bust pick with Mike Evans against the New Orleans Saints and specifically cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Usually wide receiver/cornerback matchups get a little unrealistic, but this one seems very real. In 15 games against the Saints in his career, Evans has only surpassed 100 yards receiving once and has a total of five touchdowns. Making the sample size a little bit smaller, but more recent in the last three years through six games Evans has averaged two receptions, 4.3 targets and 32.8 yards receiving per game. Half of those games, Evans has failed to reach 15 yards receiving. The stats are even worse when looking at games played in New Orleans.
Monitor the status on fellow wide receivers Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and Russell Gage who all missed practice on Thursday. Evans may be targeted more this week than any other game against the Saints in his career. Regardless of that, this Buccaneers offense did not look good Week 1 and Tom Brady is a notorious slow starter. They’ll figure it out sooner rather than later, but this matchup has historically not been kind to Evans.
TE Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders
DraftKings – $5,600; 55.1% Bust | FanDuel – $6,800; 47.4% Bust
A day before the season started, Darren Waller agreed to a three-year, $51 million contract extension and then followed that signing up with a four reception for 79 yards performance in Week 1. The Las Vegas Raiders late comeback attempt failed as they lost by five in their season opener. However, three of Waller’s four receptions came in the fourth quarter as quarterback Derek Carr had a one-track mind staring down his former college teammate Davante Adams for 17 targets, which led the league last week.
There is no denying that this connection is going to be strong, but 17 targets right out of the gates is pretty insane. Only six targets for Waller is not a recipe for success as the Raiders will find out soon enough. Expect Waller to get a little bit more love moving forward, but he still has the worst leverage score among all tight ends on this main slate for both sites. Having Pitts a bit lower on DraftKings and significantly lower on FanDuel, he is the preferred option when paying up for a tight end this week. The matchup is incredible, but Waller’s peers look a little bit better than he does for Week 2.
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