We are here to, well, talk about our NFL DFS Week 1 DraftKings Milly Maker breakdown. Why? I mean, who doesn’t want to earn a few million dollars in a single weekend?
Stokastic NFL DFS Week 1 Sims Breakdown
Sims Settings
We’re matching the DraftKings $5 Milly Maker settings:
- 30% to first
- Large field
- 10,000 lineups
- Between Low Stakes & Marquee
We’ll favorite the Top-300 ROI lineups and compare them to the field.
Top QB Sims Exposures & Leverage
We’re getting a lot of two QBs at the top — and have decent leverage over the field with both:
- Trevor Lawrence — 23% (+12%)
- Jayden Daniels — 21% (+9%)
- Lawrence is cheap and in a great spot against a Panthers DST that gave up the 2nd most points to QBs last season.
- The Commanders have the 2nd highest implied total on the slate.
- Both are projected as the most owned QBs on the slate at 11% each.
Rest of the Top-Five
- Russell Wilson — 8%
- Joe Flacco — 7%
- Joe Burrow — 7%
Top RB Exposures & Leverage
We’re still high on Christian McCaffrey at 40% exposure. That’s down since he missed practice with a calf injury, but it could bring ownership discounts if DFS players are afraid to roster him. That game doesn’t lock until 4 PM ET.
Other Top RBs
2. Chase Brown — 34% (+15% leverage)
3. Alvin Kamara — 33% (+15%)
4. Jaylen Warren — 31% (+22%) 👀
Top WR Exposures & Leverage
We’re getting a lot of Tetairoa McMillan (63%) — likely due to his value (props at 4.5 receptions, 64.5 receiving yards, $5,200), and also because he’s a run-back in Jacksonville stacks.
The Sims are also high on several cheaper and mid-range WRs, with generally soft pricing.
Other Top WRs
2. Emeka Egbuka — 44% (+28%)
3. Malik Nabers — 35% (+18%)
4. Brian Thomas — 28% (+9%)
5. Deebo Samuel — 23% (+13%)
Top TE Exposures & Leverage
Four TEs are getting the bulk of ownership in this run. Total TE ownership is about 135%, implying that 35% of them are in the flex.
- Trey McBride — 32%
- David Njoku — 27%
- George Kittle — 25%
- Brock Bowers — 22%
DST Exposures
Three defenses account for over 50% of exposure:
- Seahawks — 23%
- Raiders — 17%
- Giants — 12%
Stacking
Most-owned stacks (including RBs, not including run-backs) in the Top-300 ROI lineups:
- Jayden Daniels +1 — 12%
- Trevor Lawrence +1 — 12%
- Daniels +2 — 9%
- Lawrence +2 — 6%
- Tie: Joe Flacco +2 — 5%
- Tie: Russell Wilson +2 — 5%
Stacking Strategy
Comparison of the Top-300 ROI vs. The Field:
The Field
- QB + 1 → 26.88%
- QB + 2 → 20.65%
- QB + 1 | 1 OPP → 19.49%
- QB + 2 | 1 OPP → 12.92%
- No Stack (-) → 10.99%
- QB + 3 → 4.74%
- QB + 3 | 1 OPP → 2.69%
- QB + 1 | 2 OPP → 0.95%
- QB + 2 | 2 OPP → 0.56%
- QB + 3 | 2 OPP → 0.09%
Top-300 ROI
- QB + 2 → 29.33%
- QB + 1 → 28.00%
- QB + 1 | 1 OPP → 15.67%
- QB + 2 | 1 OPP → 15.00%
- QB + 3 → 5.67%
- No Stack (-) → 3.00%
- QB + 3 | 1 OPP → 2.33%
- QB + 2 | 2 OPP → 0.67%
- QB + 1 | 2 OPP → 0.33%
Takeaway: The Top-300 ROI features far more QB+2 lineups, and far fewer unstacked lineups (-8%).
Salary Spending
The vast majority of The Field’s lineups (85%) spend within $200 of the salary cap.
Macro Data: Top-300 vs. The Field
Projected FP
- Field Avg: 129.3 FP
- Top-300 Avg: 140.3 FP
- Top ROI lineups lean toward higher projections, roughly +11 FP above the field average.
Ownership (OwnSum)
- Field Avg: 88.4%
- Top-300 Avg: 113.2%
- Higher ROI lineups embrace higher cumulative ownership, showing chalk-heavy builds can still be profitable with proper stack leverage and unique secondaries.
Sim ROI
- Field Avg: -15.3%
- Top-300 Avg: +112.1%
- The field runs negative ROI, while the top cohort posts triple-digit returns.
Top Cheap Values (Sub-$5,000)
Wide Receivers
- Emeka Egbuka — $4,600
- Josh Downs — $4,600
- Jauan Jennings — $4,900
Running Backs
- Austin Ekeler — $4,800
- Tank Bigsby — $4,600
- Zach Charbonnet — $4,900
That is it, kiddos. Hopefully you found our NFL DFS Week 1 DraftKings Milly Maker breakdown helpful! If you’re looking for more NFL DFS Week 1 content, check us out on Twitter/X!
