Already two weeks into the new NFL season, we dive into Week 3 looking to capitalize on observations from the early-season games. Combine Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays are best point-per-dollar while utilizing the NFL DFS ownership projections to understand the leverage of these plays.
Week 3 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays
DraftKings Quarterback: Marcus Mariota – $5,500
As the best value on the slate, look no further for a better point-per-dollar play than Mariota. Averaging 18.6 DraftKings points per game places him QB12, yet Mariota is priced as QB18 on the main slate. After facing New Orleans and Los Angeles, Atlanta will welcome a much less potent Seattle defense that just lost Jamal Adams for the season to a torn quad tendon. This matchup has sneaky shootout potential despite its opening total of 42.5. Mariota brings a dual-threat ability that is great for fantasy, averaging over 200 yards passing with two touchdowns while adding another 88 yards rushing and a score to start the season. He now faces a defense ranked 29th in yards per pass attempt (7.8) while surrendering 20 DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks.
FanDuel Quarterback: Geno Smith – $6,300
This favored quarterback in the Atlanta – Seattle game comes with the lowest starting salary on the slate following matchups with two of the top three defenses in the NFL by FanDuel. Atlanta has a much more porous defense and has specifically struggled against opposing wide receivers and tight ends, ranking 30th and 29th, respectively, in FanDuel points allowed per game to the position. Smith hasn’t struggled with incompletions this year, leading the NFL in completion percentage at 81.0%. Holding legitimate value, Smith will look for Tyler Lockett (1.7) and D.K. Metcalf (0.5) to improve on their yards after catch against a less enforcing secondary Sunday afternoon. The trio comes with legitimate double stack potential, unlocking massive upside in GPP tournament formats due to their lowly projected ownership if this game pushes well above its projected total.
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DraftKings Running Back: David Montgomery – $5,900
Chicago trusted Montgomery for 80.5% of snaps last week against Green Bay, expanding his upside despite him seeing four fewer opportunities in Week 2 from Week 1. If his opportunities more closely resemble his snap count this week, Montgomery may smash given his middling salary and opportunistic matchup. Houston allows the third-most yards rushing per game (163) and enters this week ranked 30th in DraftKings points allowed to running backs — 28.9 per game. The Bears are favored by 3 points, and Montgomery is projecting as a top value at the running back position. His salary does not resemble the projected workload or the opposing defense struggles, and that makes him one of the safer locks this week.
FanDuel Running Back: Leonard Fournette – $6,600
The Green Bay Packers are another struggling defense, ranking 27th in yards rushing allowed, and now they face a Tom Brady offense that ranks seventh in rushing attempts per game (31.5). Fournette ranks third in snap share (81.7) and fourth in opportunity share (81.0%), which has allowed him to produce 23.1 FanDuel points this season against two solid run defenses in the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. Next up is a defense allowing the fourth-most yards per carry (5.6), and it will most likely deploy five to six defensive backs per play to match up with the Buccaneers pass catchers. This game also has the potential to turn into a shootout considering the seven MVPs between the two teams’ quarterbacks. Fournette makes the perfect extension, considering he’s scripted the most work out of any of Brady’s offensive skill players left off the injury report for Sunday’s Game of the Week.
DraftKings Wide Receiver: Curtis Samuel – $5,100
Samuel is a top-10 value at the wide receiver position entering a divisional matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. Samuel has seen tremendous opportunity through the first two weeks of the season. He ranks ninth in routes run (79), 14th in targets (20), fifth in receptions (15) and seventh in touchdowns receiving (2). This production is good for 21.6 DraftKings points per game, ranking eighth at the position; nevertheless, he’s priced as the WR40. Darius Slay is undoubtedly a reason to avoid a WR1 on a team after his success against Justin Jefferson, but Slay won’t shadow Samuel as he’s motioning around the formation and Terry McLaurin would be much more deserving of his attention. Scott Turner has done a great job through two weeks playing to Carson Wentz’s strengths and finding ways to utilize the Commanders’ best athletes in space. Save salary cap with this sneaky cheap attachment to the fifth-highest point total (47.0) on the slate.
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