With the early games in the books, we have compiled the afternoon slate from Adam Pfeifer’s NFL DFS matchups article into one source. Be sure to check out the full 15,000-word article every single week, published Thursday.
Links to Week 8 Afternoon Slate Games
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers | Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans | Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
Total: 42
Line: SF -5.5Â
Panthers passing game
Kyle Allen has once again been named the starting quarterback for the Panthers this week. He has done a very serviceable job off the bench, winning every game and failing to turn the ball over. However, I won’t be targeting him this week against arguably the league’s best defense. The 49ers currently lead the league in pressure rate at 32.8 percent, while San Francisco’s defense is forcing a three and out over 45 percent of the time this season, the highest rate in football. Meanwhile, only the Patriots are coughing up fewer points per drive (0.88). Look elsewhere for a quarterback this week.
Because I don’t have interest in Allen (or this game, for that matter), the Carolina receivers don’t excite me all that much either. Curtis Samuel scored two touchdowns the last time we saw the Panthers in action, though one was a rushing score. He’s been targeted at least six times in five consecutive games but because he lines up on the right side of the formation, he’ll see plenty of coverage from Richard Sherman in this game, which is definitely sub-optimal. Sherman is allowing just 1.29 fantasy points per target on the year, the 11th-best mark among qualified corners, while his 67.4 passer rating allowed when targeted is the sixth-best mark in the league.
D.J. Moore, meanwhile, is coming off a 10-target game against Tampa Bay. He hauled in seven of those looks for 73 yards. I still wouldn’t view either receiver as anything more than a low-end WR3 in this brutal matchup, as the 49ers are coughing up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (21.4). Only New England and Buffalo are allowing fewer passing scores per game (0.8).
Panthers running game
You are never benching Christian McCaffrey so the decision is whether you pay up for him in DFS or not. For the first time this season, McCaffrey is over $9,000 on DK but is in a brutal spot. The 49ers have yet to allow a running back to score a rushing touchdown, while no running back has finished as a top-24 fantasy running back against them to this point of the year. Given the difference of matchups, I am going to prefer Saquon Barkley at a cheaper price but McCaffrey is never a bad play.
49ers passing game
Again, I just don’t love this game. It has one of the lowest implied totals of the slate and if I rarely consider Jimmy Garoppolo in good matchups, I’m not going to look to him here in a poor one. The Panthers are bottom-eight in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, while Garoppolo doesn’t have the volume to trump any tough matchups or lack of efficiency. He ranks just 26th in the league with 167 pass pass attempts, averaging under 28 passes per game. Garoppolo is also just 25th in fantasy points per game (12.3) and 23rd in fantasy points per dropback (0.37) and faces a Panthers defense that is coughing up just 9.2 yards per completion, the fifth-lowest mark in the league.
The 49ers just acquired Emmanuel Sanders and he is expected to play. It is difficult for me to get too excited about him in his first game with his new team. The Broncos were a run-first team but not like San Francisco, who are calling run at the highest rate in football. San Francisco continues to essentially use a committee at wide receiver, as five different wideouts have played at least 30 percent of the snaps this season. Of course, they just gave up a good amount for Sanders, so he’ll be a near every-down player right away. Carolina has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, while Sanders should line up in the slot, keeping him away from James Bradberry. He’s a WR3 play in his debut game.
Dante Pettis continues to see an uptick in snaps but it hasn’t equated to targets. With Sanders now in the fold, I am completely off any other San Francisco wide receiver.
You aren’t benching George Kittle ever but it is worth wondering if he is worth the price in daily leagues right now. The 49ers are calling run 57 percent of the time, the highest rate in football, which has led to Kittle logging 200 run-blocking snaps, the second-most among all tight ends. That has led to him running just 136 pass routes, which is 22nd among at the position. Think about that. Arguably the best tight end in the NFL is outside the top-20 in routes run. It has really capped his ceiling a bit, though there is still plenty of upside when he is targeted. Kittle is eighth at the position in yards per target (9.0) and fourth in yards per pass route (3.24). I don’t see myself paying up for him this week outside of the occasional tournament lineup.
49ers running game
Over the last three weeks, Tevin Coleman has played 111 of 218 snaps (51 percent), while Matt Breida is at 71 of 218 (33 percent). It is a little skewed because Breida missed a few series last week as he was checked for a concussion, but later returned to the game. But again, because the 49ers are running so much, both guys are heavily involved. Since Week 5, Breida has touched the ball on 56.3 percent of his snaps, the fifth-highest rate in football. Coleman, meanwhile, is right under him at 52.3 percent, though he is getting the short-yardage work, ranking fifth in the league in carries from inside the five-yard line during that span. The Panthers are allowing 1.2 rushing scores per game this year, the sixth-most in the league, so both San Francisco backs are viable FLEX options, while Coleman makes the better case for an RB2.
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Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
Total: 46
Line: NE -13
Browns passing game
This is the other game where I just don’t see a ton of very strong fantasy plays. I don’t know why anyone would want to play Baker Mayfield right now, especially against the top defense in football. The Patriots have allowed one passing touchdown this season compared to 18 interceptions. Mayfield has looked awful when the first read isn’t there and the Patriots are going to give him so many different looks to confuse him. Of course, Cleveland’s offensive line has also been a major concern, as Mayfield has been under pressure around 35 percent of the time. No team is allowing fewer points and yards per drive than the Patriots, while opposing offenses are scoring touchdowns on just 16.6 percent of all red zone trips against New England, easily the lowest rate in football. Thanks, but no thanks.
Odell Beckham Jr. is still vastly talented but he draws the toughest matchup in fantasy. We know the Patriots continue to take away the opposition’s top pass catcher and they will do that with Stephon Gilmore, the top corner in the NFL. In coverage this season, Gilmore has allowed 0.90 fantasy points per target, the best mark in the league, as well as 0.20 fantasy points per cover snap, the second-best in football. It may seem weird but I would truly consider sitting Beckham if you have solid alternative options.
As a result, we could see targets funnel to Jarvis Landry in this game. He is being used downfield a good bit, ranking ninth in yards per reception (17.6) and 20th in yards per target (10.0). There really isn’t anything all that exciting about Landry but he plays a ton of snaps and should see a solid target share.
Browns running game
Again, you really don’t love the potential for Cleveland’s offense this week, but you obviously aren’t benching Nick Chubb, who is fifth in the NFL with an 84.3 percent opportunity share. His snaps have been up in close games, as he’s playing more on third downs than he did during the first two weeks of the season. He continues to play well, averaging 3.49 yards after contact per attempt, the fifth-best mark among running backs with at least 50 carries. Because teams are always trailing against them, New England is allowing just 18 rushing attempts per game this year, the fewest in football. I may not go to him in DFS but he remains a top-seven running back play in seasonal leagues.
Patriots passing game
Tom Brady hasn’t been playing that well lately. Luckily, the New England defense is carrying this team right now so no one is really talking about it. Brady has one touchdown pass or fewer in three of his last four games, while completing just 30.2 percent of his passes when under pressure, which ranks 25th in the league. Despite their issues elsewhere, the Browns can get after the quarterback, ranking 10th in pressure rate at 24.9 percent. In this middling matchup, Brady is a low-ceiling back-end QB1 for me.
The Patriots pass-catchers look a bit different this week. Josh Gordon hadn’t been playing but he is officially gone, while Mohamed Sanu is in the fold. It is going to be interesting how they line up, as Julian Edelman has been in the slot about 65 percent of the time this season, while Sanu has lined up inside 84.4 percent of the time. Phillip Dorsett will remain the lead outside receiver, who has scored four touchdowns already.
The Browns have been missing both starting corners Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, who could finally return in this game. Cleveland has been bottom-12 at defending receivers lined up on the left side of the formation, which is where Sanu will line up more when he’s not in the slot. Edelman, meanwhile, remains a borderline top-15 receiver in PPR leagues, as he’ll continue to be a safe option. He is fifth in the league in targets with 68 and fourth in receptions with 45, while Cleveland can be had in the middle of the field. They have allowed three touchdowns to slot receivers on the season.
Patriots running gameÂ
It wasn’t pretty but Sony Michel got it done last week, finding the end zone three times. They continue to lean on Michel, especially with Rex Burkhead sidelined. Michel is averaging just 3.5 yards per touch on the season but leads the league with seven goal line carries, which is why you are starting him. You want those touchdowns and the Patriots remain the most run-heavy offense in football when inside the five-yard line. When he’s on the field, he gets the ball, as Michel is touching the ball on 58.4 percent of his snaps, the highest rate among all running backs with at least 30 touches. Teams are averaging a healthy 30.5 rushing attempts per game against the Browns this season (fifth-most), while allowing four running back touchdowns over their last two games. Consider Michel a fine RB2 in non-PPR leagues, especially if Burkhead can’t return.
James White has more red zone targets than any player in the NFL with 11 and remains a big part of this Patriots passing game. Cleveland’s linebackers aren’t very good in coverage and White has a steady role that keeps him in flex consideration every week in PPR leagues.
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Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
Total: 51.5
Line: HOU -6.5Â
Raiders passing game
I really wish the Raiders had better pass-catchers because I want to use some Derek Carr here. This game between the Texans and Raiders features two pass funnels, so I am definitely looking to target the passing games. Carr had a respectable game last week in Green Bay, passing for 293 yards and two touchdowns. Despite trailing the entire game, Carr only attempted 28 pass attempts, a number that should go up this week because even if Oakland sticks with the run while trailing, they won’t find success against Houston’s strong run defense. 83.3 percent of all touchdowns allowed by the Texans has been via the pass, the second-highest rate in football, while 76.5 percent of all yardage surrendered by this defense has come through the air, the third-highest rate.
The Texans have also allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers (21.3) and the Raiders are road dogs. Houston is also of nine teams to allow at least two passing touchdowns per game, so at just $5,000 on DK, I will be using some Carr this weekend.
Finally, Darren Waller got into the end zone. He went off last week, catching seven balls for 126 yards and a pair of scores, as he continues his breakout 2019 campaign. Waller remains a target hog, handling 26.7 percent of the team targets, the highest rate among all tight ends. He is now second at his position in catches (44) and third in receiving yards (485). Those 44 receptions are the most by a player in the first six games in Raiders history and per Tristan Cockroft of ESPN, they are the third-most by a tight end in their first six games since 1950. Houston has been good against tight ends this season but they have only faced two good ones. I have interest in Waller seemingly every single week and Week 8 is no different.
Tyrell Williams is still dealing with his foot injury but he actually practiced on Wednesday and could return to the lineup. He was limited but if he returns, you can slide him in as a WR3 against a Houston secondary that just added Gareon Conley but remains very vulnerable, especially against speedy wideouts. Williams has scored a touchdown in every game he’s played in this season, while seeing 40 percent of Oakland’s targets from inside the 10-yard line. The Texans, meanwhile, have allowed the third-most fantasy points and fifth-most touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers.
Raiders running game
Josh Jacobs is reportedly very sore and has a shot to miss this game. Of course, assuming he plays, you have to trust him as a low-end RB2, given the volume he sees. He’s averaging nearly 20 touches per game on the year and is touching the ball on 53.4 percent of his snaps, which is the sixth-highest rate among backs with at least 40 touches on the season. However, especially with him not looking 100 percent, I’ll likely avoid him in DFS this week. The Texans are allowing the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns per game on the season, while just 16.6 percent of the touchdowns scored against them have come on the ground, the fourth-lowest rate in football.
Texans passing game
How do you not love Deshaun Watson here? Whenever you can get Watson in a spot where he won’t be under duress, you get excited, and that is the case this week. The Raiders are sporting the lowest pressure rate in the NFL to this point at 11.8 percent, while sporting a 4.6 percent sack rate. As a result, opposing passers have plenty of time in the pocket to survey the field and take deep shots. The Raiders are allowing 12.7 yards per completion, the second-highest mark in the league, while no team has allowed more passing plays of 20 yards or more (32). They have also allowed the third-most such plays of at least 40 yards (seven). This all bodes extremely well for Watson, who is fourth in the league in deep pass attempts, averaging 5.6 per game.
Meanwhile, 16.2 percent of his pass attempts this season have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, which is the third-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. Oakland just allowed multiple big passing plays to Aaron Rodgers last week, allowing nearly 17 yards per completion. Watson should absolutely smash in this spot. Fire him up with confidence.
It was great to see DeAndre Hopkins finally have a high upside game last week, hauling in nine balls for 106 yards and a touchdown. He has caught nine passes in each of the last two games and should continue to see double-digit targets most weeks, especially with Will Fuller out for the next few weeks with a hamstring injury. Hopkins is now second among all wideouts in target share (29.3%), while also seeing 22 percent of the red zone targets. You’d like to see the Texans start using him down the field more, but perhaps they will do that with Fuller sidelined. Either way, Hopkins is an elite play against a bad Oakland secondary that has also been a pass funnel, as 76.1% of the touchdowns scored against the Raiders have been via the pass, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Meanwhile, Kenny Stills should be in a ton of seasonal and daily lineups this weekend. He played over 90 percent of the snaps after Fuller left the game last week and ended up with 104 yards on four catches. Stills is perfectly capable of filling in as a deep threat, as that has been his role over the course of his career. So far this season, just over 37 percent of Stills’ targets have come 20 yards down the field, the 15th-highest rate in football, and we already discussed how often Watson takes deep shots. He is also inside the top 10 in deep completion rate. Oakland is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, as well as nine touchdown passes of 15 yards or more down the field, the most in the NFL.
Texans running game
Unsurprisingly, Carlos Hyde is averaging 19.2 carries per game in wins compared to 11.3 carries per game in losses. You want to target Hyde in games where the Texans should be playing with a lead, and as near touchdown home favorites, this seems like one of those spots. Oakland has quietly been solid against the run this season, but Hyde could see 18-20 carries this week, while Houston has been pretty run-heavy this season, especially from inside the 10-yard line.
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