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NFL DFS Picks: Optimizer Groups-Think | Divisional Round Fantasy Lineup Constructions

Terry McBride

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NFL DFS picks DraftKings FanDuel

The race for the big game is on and we’ve got a loaded slate of NFL DFS action to round out the year. The final slate of the season that will feature more than two games is the combined Saturday-Sunday contest on each site. DraftKings is running their main slates for both days, while FanDuel has chosen to treat Saturday and Sunday as separate slates for their largest contests. We’re treating the weekend as one big slate and providing NFL DFS picks, groups and settings for DraftKings NFL and FanDuel NFL lineups for both Saturday and Sunday. These are all updated for the latest information as of early Saturday morning, if anything major emerges for Sunday I will try to get back with an update. With a few pieces of news still to emerge, as always, your best bet is to follow along with our NewsGod and all the shows, articles, tools and content!

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I’m making use of the new NFL boom/bust tool in making my NFL DFS picks again this week. If you’re familiar with the product from our NBA toolkit, it operates the same way, providing a probability that a player will either hit or miss a target score. This is yet another game-changer for the Awesemo team. Check it out!

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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Divisional Round

DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)

QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)

Limit Rules: 

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three

Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team

Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)

Construction: 

Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.

Notes

This version is updated for Saturday morning, if any major changes emerge for Sunday I will try to run a quick update to any groups or settings.


Baltimore Ravens

Key Player: Lamar Jackson

Setting: At least one (I would consider this at an “at most” to push some Lamar only lineups, or adding a Lamar exception and turning this group off for a few crunches)

Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin (+15%), J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary (-35%)

Buffalo Bills

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: At least one

Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary (-35%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards


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Cleveland Browns

Key Player: Baker Mayfield

Setting: At least one

Group: Jarvis Landry (+10%), Rashard Higgins, Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nick Chubb

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Travis Kelce (-15%), Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (-35%) (Sammy Watkins will miss the Divisional Round)

Green Bay Packers

Key Player: Aaron Rodgers

Setting: At least one

Group: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan (+10%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+15%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Cam Akers, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds, Gerald Everett (feel free to choose between the tight ends instead of listing them both)

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Kansas City Chiefs

Key Player: Patrick Mahomes

Setting: At least one

Group: Travis Kelce (-15%), Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Q) (-35%) (Sammy Watkins will miss the Divisional Round. Edwards-Helaire is questionable, if he misses this one Darrel Williams is an interesting inexpensive option, though Le’Veon Bell will be lurking to swipe opportunities)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins (-15%), Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper (+10%), Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nick Chubb

Los Angeles Rams

Key Player: Jared Goff

Setting: At least one

Group: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp (Q), Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds, Van Jefferson, Gerald Everett (I’m adding Everett to work a little natural wiggle into GPP entries with a lower owned tight end with touchdown upside on a very short Divisional Round slate. Kupp is questionable but fully expected to play with lingering knee pain)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan (+10%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+10%), Aaron Jones (-35%)

New Orleans Saints

Key Player: Drew Brees

Setting: At least one

Group: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders (+10%), Jared Cook, Deonte Harris (+10%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski (+10%), Ronald Jones

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key Player: Tom Brady

Setting: At least one (I’ll run some sets with this at two)

Group: Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski (+10%) (Ronald Jones is questionable and slated to be a game time decision. If he doesn’t play and we expand Leonard Fournette’s projections, you may need to add him with a negative bump to control exposures)

Opposing Setting: At most two

Group: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Deonte Harris (+15%)


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Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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