We get an 11-game slate to attack this Sunday after a Thanksgiving full of NFL football. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the top NFL DFS DFS leverage plays for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 12 NFL DFS Leverage Picks
Antonio Gibson
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 6th, FanDuel: 2nd
Gibson brings much better upside than his current salaries suggest and could be a real game changer in GPPs this weekend. Stokastic is forecasting him low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Commanders featured Gibson last week, while Brian Robinson operated as the No.2 back. Gibson carried the ball a season-high 18 times – including four redzone rushes – while playing 67.7% of the snaps, which also set a season high for the back. Gibson also ran a route on 64% of his team’s dropbacks and gained a target on 16% of those routes. Robinson on the other hand saw 13 carries, but only played 33.8% of the snaps and didn’t run a single route.
Having Gibson handle the larger workload was likely by design and should continue this Sunday, considering Washington defeated the Texans by 13 points with Gibson as their main back. The Commanders are 4.5-point home favorites over the Falcons this Sunday, who are PFF’s eighth worst graded defense. The Falcons are allowing the fifth most rushing touchdowns to running back this season (10). Gibson ranks 17th in DraftKings points per snap among running backs this season (0.48) and is a real threat to top 20 fantasy points in this juicy spot.
Treylon Burks
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 16th, FanDuel: 34th
Burks has had an outstanding role since returning from the IR. The rookie wideout has been targeted on 28% of his routes over the last two weeks. Notably, Burks has garnered three targets greater than 20 yards and has seen two redzone targets. He is fresh off a career-best 21.1 DraftKings points versus the Packers. The Titans should fall into a pass heavy game plan this Sunday as two-point underdogs against the Bengals.
This is an average game environment with Cincinnati as the 15th highest graded defense on PFF. However, Burks is extremely underpriced for his recent usage and expected to go essentially unowned on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections, making him one of the best GPP plays on the slate.
Travis Kelce
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 20th, FanDuel: 18th
Most GPP players will be paying down at tight end, so Kelce isn’t expected to see the attention he deserves. He needs to be one of your main GPP plays this weekend. Kelce has seen a target on 25% of his routes this season, while running a route on 82% of his team’s dropbacks. In the redzone, Kelce leads the league with 21 targets, which is three more than Justin Jefferson, who ranks second in the stat. Overall, with 23.5 DraftKings PPG and 0.42 DraftKings points per snap, Kelce is the No.1 tight end in fantasy football by a huge margin. In fact, he ranks fifth in DraftKings PPG among all skill players.
For this Sunday, the Chiefs are hosting the Rams and carry the second highest implied team total on the slate (28.75 points). For the last 10 occasions Kansas City has boasted an implied team total of at least 25 points, Kelce is supplying 25 DraftKings, exceeding 20 DraftKings points at an 80% clip.
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