NFL Week 11 delivers a 11-game slate this Sunday. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 11 NFL DFS Leverage Picks
Terry McLaurin
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 54th, FanDuel: 42nd
Taylor Heinicke will continue to start at quarterback for the Washington Commanders, even though Carson Wentz (finger) is off IR, which is massive news for McLaurin. In the 18 games the wide receiver has played with Heinicke at quarterback over the past two seasons, McLaurin has been targeted on 24% of his routes, including a jaw-dropping 37 targets over 20 yards. In these contests, McLaurin is amassing 16 DraftKings PPG, including seven efforts of at least 18 DraftKings points.
After exposing a stout Philadelphia Eagles defense that is the second highest graded defense by Pro Football Focus for a season-best 23.8 DraftKings points last week, McLaurin meets a Houston Texans defense that is the second worst graded defense by PFF. Houston is surrendering the seventh most yards per pass attempt (7.2), and with Stokastic projecting McLaurin for modest ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is without a doubt one of the best GPP targets for Week 11.
Greg Dulcich
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 7th, FanDuel: 6th
Dulcich is an excellent sleeper for GPPs this weekend, with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Since making his season debut for the Denver Broncos in Week 6, Dulcich has run a route on 80% of their dropbacks and been the target on 16% of those routes. Dulcich is averaging 14.8 yards per reception, which ranks first among tight ends who have played at least 50% of their team’s snaps since Week 6. Now, with WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle) possibly sitting out, Dulcich’s usage could grow even further. The rookie is vastly underpriced for his role as Denver’s featured tight end and this is a beautiful matchup for him against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Las Vegas is giving up the third most yards per pass attempt (7.3) and is the seventh worst graded defense by PFF. Plus, the Raiders have yielded the fourth most touchdowns to tight ends this season (6). For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Dulcich is rating as a top-five tight end value in Stokastic’s projections.
Cordarrelle Patterson
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 31st, FanDuel: 10th
Patterson is a worthwhile risk for GPPs this Sunday. For an Atlanta Falcons offense that is running the ball at the second highest rate in the NFL, Patterson is averaging 12.7 carries per game in six starts. Though this isn’t a workhorse role, he has 14 red zone rushes in his six games and always brings huge upside given his efficiency, ranking seventh among running backs in DraftKings points per snap (0.47). Patterson has at least 18 DraftKings points in half of his games this season and a huge ceiling in a potential shootout against the Chicago Bears.
This game’s total is the highest on the slate (49.5 points) and Atlanta’s implied team total is the second largest on the board (26.25 points), which is the highest implied team total the Falcons have seen this season. Atlanta is a 3-point home favorite, and the Chicago defense Patterson is facing has been destroyed by running backs this season, allowing the fifth most yards (1,094) and second most rushing touchdowns to the position (12). With Stokastic forecasting him for low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Patterson is an incredible way to attack the best setting on the slate.
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