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Week 10 NFL DFS Value Picks: Najee Harris Looking to Reignite




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Nine weeks into the NFL season and a week away from the trade deadline, snap counts across the league have been impacted. With all these changes, make sure to check out Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays are the best point-per-dollar Week 10 NFL DFS value picks while utilizing the NFL DFS ownership projections to understand the leverage of these plays.

Combine Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays are best point-per-dollar while utilizing the NFL DFS ownership projections to understand the leverage of these plays.

Week 10 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

Quarterback: Justin Fields – $6,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel

The Chicago Bears will host the Detroit Lions in a matchup holding the second-highest game total (48.5) on the main slate, with each of these teams becoming a DFS dream. Justin Fields is hot off a slate-breaking performance (45.7 fantasy points) against the Miami Dolphins and is a prime play against this putrid Lions defense. Rinse and repeat with targeting this Detroit unit that ranks 26th in Football Outsider’s pass and run DVOA, allowing opposing quarterbacks to run up the fourth-most DraftKings points per game (22.7).

These ranks improved drastically for the previous cellar-dwelling Lions following a multi-interception victory against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Regardless, Fields is a premier building block in cash and GPP given his steady floor and recent boom production. His tag has risen on both platforms, but he remains the top overall value on DraftKings and rates just a spot lower on FanDuel. While Field has value everywhere, the Top Stacks Tool favors Chicago on FanDuel, ranking the Bears as the third-best stacking option.

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford – $5,600 DraftKings, $6,700

Update: It appears Stafford will not play this week.

Patrick Mahomes and Fields are commanding double-digit ownership early in the week, but Matthew Stafford is surprisingly not far behind, with many targeting him as a value option this week in a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game (21.7) to opposing quarterbacks and rate as the second-worst red zone defense against the position.

Stafford certainly carries risk, as this Rams offense ranks 26th in total DVOA. Their points per game (16.4) and total yards (310.9) rank 29th, and their 8.9% sack rate is 27th. The offensive line has certainly hindered this group, displayed by the 68.4 yards rushing per game and Stafford’s 33rd-ranked protection rate (71.9%) per Player Profiler.

Priced for his production, Stafford is averaging the fewest fantasy points per game (12.7) of his career. He will look to improve on his first outing in Arizona in which he produced 249 scoreless yards. Nevertheless, he ranks as the third-best value on both major platforms and is a part of the second-best team stack for DraftKings, with Tyler Higbee ($3,600) and Cooper Kupp ($9,000) providing suitable stacking pieces.

Running Back: Najee Harris – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel

In his rookie season last year, Najee Harris led NFL running backs in snap share (84.5%), opportunity share (86.4%) and targets (94) and was second in carries (307). But now his salary has declined drastically, priced currently as RB25.

Harris’ opportunity share has taken a slight hit, but he still provides immense value at this tag. With 108 carries and 28 targets, he has the eighth-highest opportunity share (76.0%) in the league, though his 3.6 yards per touch rank 56th out of running backs.

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The matchup with New Orleans isn’t overly enticing given a game total of 40.0 points, but expect the running game to be a focal point coming off the bye week against this suddenly middling Saints run defense. Harris projects fourth for running back value and should certainly garner interest on both platforms due to his salary.

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Running Back: Dameon Pierce – $6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel

Dameon Pierce is moving out of the cheaper value into the more middling-priced popular plays. Handling the fifth-most carries (148) has allowed Pierce to create 537 yards (seventh) by way of 56 evaded tackles (fourth), resulting in the sixth-most yards rushing (678) in the NFL. He is still priced as RB13 on DraftKings, where he projects as the third-highest value amongst flex options.

This week, the running back position has plenty of valuable pay-up options like Saquon Barkley ($8,600), Derrick Henry ($8,300) and Josh Jacobs ($7,600), all of whom are projecting for heavy ownership. Pierce provides some tremendous leverage and salary savings, particularly on DraftKings. The Giants are allowing 5.5 yards per carry this season, the second most in the NFL, and 6.3 over the last three games.

This game has a lot of DFS interest, as there are high-value pieces on both sides and some sneaky valuable leverage plays to consider.

Wide Receiver: Wan’Dale Robinson – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel

A rising route rate and snap share in three consecutive weeks, coupled with an impressive leverage score on both platforms, make Wan’Dale Robinson an interesting value play this week. His ownership comes in rather low despite projecting in the optimal lineup at near 10% on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

New York faces a Houston secondary that is allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt on the season and 7.7 over the last three games. The Giants have questionable tags on three wide receivers early in the week, which is certainly something to monitor since official rulings on any would secure snaps and targets for Robinson. As mentioned, this is a matchup worth game stacking, with the Giants holding the sixth-highest stack rating on the slate.

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