Top Week 8 NFL PrizePicks Plays & Lineups: Matthew Stafford & James Robinson

Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Main slate breakdown. In this article we’re looking at the best Fantasy Scores to target for the Week 8 Sunday main slate. If you’re new to the site, PrizePicks allows you to bundle over or under selections into parlays for big payouts. So, from each game we’re offered a fantasy total or prop (single stats DFS) amount on select players and then need to make a selection as to whether that player will go over or under the total.

Using the Awesemo weekly DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing TDs) and the Awesemo Prop Tool — which projects specific total for each player — I’ll be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and hopefully provide a good guide as to how to build your PrizePicks tickets.

PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Scores DFS Picks: Week 8 Sunday Slate

QB: Matthew Stafford over 290.5 passing yards

The Rams Matthew Stafford has been on a tear this season and comes in averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, second in the NFL. The Texans remain a bottom-10 defense in pretty much every metric including against the pass, where they rank fourth last in yards per pass attempt against on the year. It may feel wrong from a game-flow standpoint to target Stafford’s passing totals here in a game where the Rams could be up huge at half-time (they’re -16.0 point favorites) but the Rams are passing the ball over 34.0 times per game on average and as we saw last week — when Stafford threw the ball 41-times — big favorite lines don’t always lead to low passing totals.

From a projections standpoint, Stafford rates out as a screaming buy on the over play as well. He’s projected for 333-passing yards this week (the most on Awesemo of any quarterback by more than 30-yards), giving us a 40+ yard differential between his over/under total on PrizePicks. Plays don’t get any stronger than this.

Other Picks:

Joe Burrow over 267.5 passing yards Joe Burrow is another quarterback, who rates out as a huge favorite, with a low passing total we should be looking to attack. The Bengals and Burrow rank first in yards per pass attempt and face a Jets defense who has now allowed 298 yards or more to each of the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced. Burrow is projected for over 280 yards passing here and rates out as a strong over target as well.

RB: James Robinson over 74.5 rushing yards

The Jaguars James Robinson comes into this week having now taken 19 or more touches in each of the Jaguars last four games. He comes into this week averaging a stout 5.5 yards per carry average and takes on a Seattle defense who has now allowed 134 rush yards per game. Teams are averaging 31.9 rush attempts against Seattle on the season (the second-most in the league) and as their offense continues to crater under Geno Smith we can expect this number to continue to stay high.

Robinson’s total here isn’t small so we’ll need a good effort but there’s few running backs in the league with the combo of efficiency and usage that Robinson currently possesses. Over his last four games he’s only failed to go over 75 rushing yards once and that was 73-yard effort against Miami in Jacksonville’s last game. The Awesemo models here also says to be confident in the over as he’s projected for over 88 rushing yards in Week 8. Take the over on a player who continues to get underrated in the over/under projections due to his lack of draft pedigree and the weakness of the Jaguars organization as a whole.

Other Picks

Elijah Mitchell over 74.5 rushing yards The 49ers take on the Bears this week, a team who has allowed 5.7 yards per carry against in their last two games. Elijah Mitchell played over 65% of the snaps last week and averaged 5.9 yards per carry against a very good Colts rush defense. The 49ers enter as solid -4.0 favorites and Mitchell is projected for over 85 yards rushing, making him yet another strong over candidate.

WR: Mike Evans under 71.5 receiving yards

The Buccaneers Mike Evans had a monster fantasy game last week against the Bears, landing three touchdowns in their blowout win. Fading a member of the Buccaneers passing game feels dangerous but Evans hasn’t exactly been super efficient with his targets of late either. He only converted six of his 10-targets last week into catches and still only netted 76 yards from the effort. The match-up here could also limit Evans as Marshawn Lattimore held Evans to under 10 yards receiving in both their meetings last year.

The over/under doesn’t seem huge on its face (especially with Antonio Brown still out) but the projections here agree that the slow-pace Saints — they rank last in pace of play — make Evans a good fade target. He’s projected for just 66 receiving yards this week and projects as a solid under target on PrizePicks in a tough defensive matchup.

Other Picks

Deebo Samuel over 69.5 receiving yards What in the world does Deebo Samuel have to do to earn respect? He’s averaging 10.5 targets per game, has a 35% team target share and is averaging 17.1 yards per catch. He also has a projection of over 95 receiving yards this week on Awesemo, which is the second highest of his position. Don’t stop smashing the over on Samuel.

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TE: Kyle Pitts under 65.5 receiving yards

The Falcons are coming off a nice win against the hapless Dolphins. Atlanta needed to throw the ball over 40-times in that game and rookie Kyle Pitts found plenty of success against a Dolphins defense that has cratered in pretty much every statistical category this year. The Panthers are a bit of a different beast as they enter this game allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt against and have only allowed one quarterback to throw for more than 250 yards in their last five games.

Pitts has turned in two stud performances in a row now but he does project for under 55 yards this week on Awesemo in what is likely to be a slower paced game. The Panthers haven’t been a fun team to watch and generally the right play has been to avoid expecting big fantasy totals from players going up against this improved defense. Pitts has a bit of an inflated total here and likely sees some regression in this tougher matchup.

Other Picks

Pat Freiermuth over 24.5 receiving yards One of the lower totals on the board this week that looks worth attacking is the small 24.5 receiving total of Pittsburgh tight-end Pat Freiermuth. The rookie has seen four or more targets now in three of his last five games and converted all seven of his targets last week against Seattle for 58 yards. He’s projected for over 35 yards this week on Awesemo and makes for a good over target.

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