The Spotlight Plays of the Day will feature a couple of Awesemo’s top plays of the day, followed by additional analysis from myself, Jake Hari, aka Tommienation1 on DraftKings and FanDuel
Top-Tier
Jonathan Marchessault ($6,900 DK/$6,800 FD)
“Marchessault gets one of the better matchups of the night against the Canucks, who have been poor defensively this month. A high-volume shooter like him in this great matchup is more than worth his price at under $7K on both DraftKings and FanDuel.”
Marchessault comes up as an “A” points grade and you can make a case for him as one of the top skaters of the night. He has an individual Corsi For per 60 minutes (iCF/60) near 20 this month and is second on the Knights in individual Scoring Chances For per 60 minutes (iSCF/60) in that same span. The Canucks have allowed the 5th-most Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes (SCA/60) in March and owned the 25th-ranked penalty-kill on the year. This is as good of a spend-up spot as any on the slate tonight.
Patric Hornqvist ($7,200 DK/ $6,600 FD)
“Hornqvist has posted points in three out of his last four games, while firing at least five shots on goal in each of those four. Against the Islanders, who have allowed the 3rd-most shot attempts since February 1, Hornqvist has a solid floor and as well as a ton of tournament upside.”
The Penguins’ winger is another “A” grade player on Awesemo’s model, and should draw some well-warranted ownership tonight in tournaments even at this hefty price. Hornqvist leads all players on the slate this month in Individual High-Danger Chances For per 60 minutes (iHDCF/60) this month at 20.8. Add in the fact that he will get top-unit power-play time against the Islanders’ dead last penalty-kill (74.9%), and he becomes one of the top skaters on the night.
Values
Shea Theodore ($4,000 DK/ $3,900 FD)
“Theodore has seen at least 20 minutes in each of his last three games playing on the Knights’ second defense pairing. It’s hard to find top power-play defensemen at this price on either site, and this is an excellent power-play matchup for Theodore.”
On a slate full of value defensemen, Theodore’s situation is one of the best, as he quarterbacks the star-studded top power-play unit that features James Neal and Jonathan Marchessault. He has been attempting 13.6 shots per 60 minutes, which is a number we like seeing out of a low-priced d-man. Assuming he sees near 20 minutes in this game, he has an excellent chance to get on the scoresheet at even-strength or against the Canucks’ 77.4% penalty-kill.
Brandon Saad ($4,700 DK/ $5,000 FD)
“Saad has only two points over his last six games, but the home matchup against the Avalanche is one that he can take advantage of. Playing on a line with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in a 6-total game and getting power-play time, Saad provides some value at winger on both sites.”
Despite his underwhelming results as of late, Saad (“B” value and points grade) has posted a 14.4 iCF/60 and over 12 iSCF/60 in March. His line has been great at creating chances, and they will take on the Nathan MacKinnon line for the Avalanche, which has allowed 32.7 SCA/60 and 13.5 HDCA/60 over their last 11 road games. With all the great options on the slate tonight, Saad may go a bit overlooked in tournaments despite the great matchup at home.
