It is a colossal 13-game slate tonight and that means we must pare down our NHL DFS picks significantly. Ownership will be spread out among non-obvious spots so don’t worry about that too much. However, watch for players like Elias Pettersson and Patrick Kane, as they may have high ownership levels for such a large slate. As always, Stokastic subscribers should check our Discord at warmups for line change/injury information and our OddsShopper tool for some NHL bets.
Alright, let’s wrangle this beast.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
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Jack Eichel (VGK at OTT): DraftKings – $7,000 | FanDuel – $8,200
Though he’s only played 11 games on the season, it has been a tale of two distinct portions of the campaign for Jack Eichel. Through the team’s first six games, he did manage seven points, but was skating under 16:51 a night with 2.8 shots per game. Then winger Mark Stone was moved onto Eichel’s line and in the five games since, he has five points and is averaging 19:29 a night, totaling 20 shots on target. Adding the team’s top winger to his line has given Eichel a bigger role, meaning considerably more ice time. Among expensive centers tonight, Eichel’s projection is giving good value on a per-dollar basis because of those improvements.
That duo has been great for the Golden Knights, too, generating 4.6 expected and 3.8 actual goals per 60 minutes together. They are dominating play when on the ice together and the hope is they can do it against Ottawa, too.
Vegas’s opponent has been better defensively than last year but still middle-of-the-road by 5-on-5 metrics. The same can be said of the penalty kill, where Eichel is featured on Vegas’s top PP unit. Simply the sheer volume of shots Eichel can generate gives him a good floor to work with and he has already shown his upside in a couple big games this year.
Elias Pettersson (VAN vs. ANA): DraftKings – $5,900 | FanDuel – $8,100
Despite his team’s slow start to the season, Elias Pettersson has managed 10 points in 10 games, being on pace for over 30 goals on the season. He has continued his torrid finish to the 2021-22 campaign and looks to add to it tonight against Anaheim.
Elias Pettersson has formed a nice duo on the second line alongside first-year Canuck Andrei Kuzmenko. With those two on the ice at 5-on-5, the team is generating more than 4.2 expected and 3.2 actual goals per 60 minutes. They routinely run over the competition when they’re on the ice together and that bodes well for a matchup against a team that is near the bottom of the league in nearly every defensive metric at both even strength and on the penalty kill.
Even with 26 teams on the slate, there should be reasonable ownership on Elias Pettersson given the home matchup with the Ducks. Using him with Kuzmenko tonight gives DFS players correlation at all offensive strengths and the opponent is among the easiest to create scoring chances. Just beware that his ownership could push 10% because of this matchup.
For a cheaper option on FanDuel given the pricing discrepancy, an option is Sam Bennett (FLA, $5,800). His line has been generating a lot of offence and he leads Florida’s top forwards in shot attempts per minute at 5-on-5. They get a soft matchup going into San Jose tonight, too.
Winger
Cole Caufield (MTL at WPG): DraftKings – $6,600
It has been a superb beginning to Cole Caufield’s second full season, scoring seven times and managing 10 points in 10 games thus far. His shooting percentage may be a bit high at 17.9% but he’d still be on a 40-goal pace shooting 13%. The reason is his shot volume, sitting at 3.9 per contest. His rate of shot attempts is in the 95th percentile of the league’s regular forwards, building off high rates in his first two years. There is not much reason to think he can’t continue to fire nearly four shots a night.
What is saving the Winnipeg Jets’ season so far is the goaltending. They are allowing similar expected goals against to poor defensive teams like Columbus and Arizona but have a .936 team save percentage at 5-on-5, fifth in the NHL. Connor Hellebuyck in net for Winnipeg makes this otherwise soft matchup more difficult, but even top goalies can’t be elite every night.
Winnipeg’s penalty kill is average by goals allowed but again, it’s Hellebuyck saving them as shot and expected goal metrics rate them far worse. Not that Montreal has an elite power play, but it does help the matchup. Caufield makes a nice one-off option tonight, or as part of a line stack.
David Perron (DET vs. WSH): DraftKings – $5,200
There has been a slew of Detroit injuries, jumbling the roster and pushing David Perron to the top line with Dylan Larkin. Those two are now skating together both at 5-on-5 and the power play, giving them correlation in the important offensive situations.
Perron’s value is strongest in his power-play contributions. Per the stats website Evolving Hockey, Perron has been inside the 90th percentile in expected goal and actual goal impact on the power play from 2019-2022. That has continued this season as Detroit generates over 9.5 expected goals and 11 actual goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage and Perron on the ice, significant improvements over last year. That is important for tonight as Washington ranks 26th by shots and 28th by expected goals allowed when down a man. It puts Detroit’s power play in a good situation.
How to roster Perron tonight is another question. He is not a volume shooter like Caufield, so using him in cash games is not a good idea. In tournaments, he’s perfectly correlated with both his line mates so just three-man stacking them is likely the best idea. He is expensive enough where even a goal and a couple shots doesn’t do it, so we need his line to score a few goals. Bringing his line mates along makes sense.
Carl Grundstrom (LAK at CHI): DraftKings – $2.500
The important note about going into Chicago is that the Blackhawks use Jonathan Toews in a shutdown role. Carl Grundstrom’s third line will avoid that matchup and it is being highlighted for this reason: with Toews’s line off the ice at 5-on-5, the Blackhawks are allowing 27% more expected goals and 54% more actual goals against per 60 minutes. Shedding themselves of depth in the offseason has meant some poor defensive combinations (plus the injury to Seth Jones) and Grundstrom should be a recipient of softer matchups.
Kevin Fiala was moved down to this Los Angeles line and in just a few games together, the early returns are promising: 3.6 expected goals and 3.9 actual goals per 60 minutes together, controlling over 61% of the expected goal share. Two of Grundstrom’s three highest ice time games of the season have come in the three contests since being put with Fiala and more ice time for a bargain price is always a good thing.
At his cost, it’s perfectly fine to use Grundstrom by himself. He does not need much to pay off his price, so stacking isn’t necessarily advantageous. It is a great matchup, though, and he can be looked to for salary relief on such a huge slate.
Defense
Evan Bouchard (EDM vs. NJD): DraftKings – $4,300
Much like Eichel discussed above, it has been two different seasons thus far for Evan Bouchard. He had one point in the team’s first five games, skating just 17:34 a night. He has four points in his last five games, though, skating 19:12 per game and skating at-or-near 19 minutes in four out of five. It is notable for Bouchard because he’s a defenseman that loves to shoot at even strength: fifth in shot attempts and tied for 10th by individual expected goals per minute among all blue liners. Hopefully, more ice time leads to more peripherals like this. We should also note he got a bit of run on the top PP unit in Edmonton’s last game, a 7-4 win over Nashville.
New Jersey is in town and with them their 31st-ranked goaltending at 5-on-5. The team itself does a good job of limiting chances but the goalies do a poor job of limiting goals. There is always significant upside with Oilers skaters however the additional ice time for Bouchard is a big reason to consider him this evening. Our projections have him as one of the top values for mid-priced rearguards on both sites.
Miro Heiskanen (DAL at ARI): DraftKings – $4,700
Miro Heiskanen returned from a brief injury issue but skated under 20 minutes in his first game back. Dallas had a 4-1 lead halfway through the game, though, so Heiskanen saw his ice time decline considerably once they got past the first period. We shouldn’t be too concerned about that happening again unless this game turns into a drubbing. Though, if it does, it’s likely to be for Dallas, and hopefully Heiskanen can get involved.
Arizona’s defense is the reason why a drubbing is very possible here. The team is bottom-3 in the league at 5-on-5 by both goals and expected goals against. Heiskanen returned to his top power-play role and the Coyotes give up the 10th-most power plays to the opponent. At his price and in this matchup, the young Finnish defender warrants serious consideration in DFS tournaments.
Goalie
Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA at SJS): DraftKings – $7,400
It hasn’t been a strong start to the year for Sergei Bobrovsky, posting a save percentage just under .900. He has struggled on high-danger chances but that’s not something that usually plagues him. That should turn around as we progress, and his overall save percentage should improve.
In our early projection run, Bobrovsky is projected for the fifth-fewest goals of all starting goalies with the fifth-highest shutout potential. The San Jose Sharks are truly inept at scoring for a second year in a row and Bobrovsky doesn’t need a heavy shot volume to return value on his prices tonight. For those looking to pay down a bit at goalie, particularly on DK, Bobrovsky should have attention thrown his way this evening.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
DET1: Larkin-Raymond-Perron
By our Top Stacks tool, this Detroit trio is fifth by leverage tonight on DK and 11th on FD, with leverage simply being their chance of being a top-2 stack less their expected ownership. On such a large slate, there is very little ownership expected here and it is a big factor on what draws us to them.
As mentioned in the section on Perron, the Washington penalty kill has struggled a lot this year and Perron is helping the Detroit power play significantly. An issue is ice time, as Lucas Raymond has skated as little as 14 minutes and as many as 20 in his last five games, as the coaching staff seems to ride a hot hand in individual contests. That is what makes Detroit a better tournament than cash option for tonight, along with very few DFS players rostering them.
MIN1: Kaprizov-Gaudreau-Zuccarello
By the same leverage measurement in the Top Stacks tool, the Minnesota Wild top line is top-3 on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. That is to be expected on such a large slate and a high line cost, but it provides an advantage for us tonight.
The Wild are hosting the Kraken and though Seattle is a good defensive team, similar to last year, the same problem persists goaltending. In 2021-22, they were last by overall save percentage at .880, and they’re 31st by the same measure this season. They are down to their fourth-string goalie due to injuries so things may not improve anytime soon (though Martin Jones may return, not that it really matters). For that reason, among others, Minnesota’s top line has our second-highest projection as a trio on the evening.
*Additional Stats from Natural Stat Trick
