It’s a much heavier Monday night slate than what we’re used to with 10 games to sort through. Nonetheless, let’s dive into some NHL DFS picks from each position, including a cash-game building block in Juuse Saros as well as some other players worth considering.
NHL DFS Picks for Today | November 21
Juuse Saros (Predators vs. Coyotes): $7,600 FanDuel | $8,500 DraftKings
Juuse Saros is slated for plenty of ownership despite a big slate on tap, however, Saros needs to be slotted into your goaltending position in cash games at the very least.
I mean, the matchup doesn’t get much better as the Predators play host to the lowly Arizona Coyotes this evening. Predictably, the Coyotes’ offense is once again struggling this season as they’ll enter this one ranked 30th with just 2.56 goals per game on the season. That figure appears spot on as they also sit dead last in the NHL in terms of expected goals for per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Certainly, an anemic offense to put it lightly.
Admittedly, the Predators haven’t been defending as well as they did last season based on the underlying numbers and Saros isn’t off to a great start this season as he’ll carry a 3.09 GAA and .906 Sv% into action tonight. However, we also have a netminder on our hands who owns a career 2.57 GAA and .919 Sv%. He’s never posted a save percentage below .914 in his career. In other words, improvement should be expected moving forward.
He’s wildly cheap at FanDuel given the matchup and while he’s pricier at DraftKings you should certainly open up your wallet for the Predators netminder in this one tonight. Defenseman Roman Josi, who has seven points (one goal, six assists) in his past five games could also pair nicely with Saros.
Brent Burns (Hurricanes vs. Jets): $6,900 FanDuel | $6,700 DraftKings
As far as the big boys go on the blueline, give Brent Burns a strong look as the Carolina Hurricanes visit the Winnipeg Jets this evening.
To be it blunt, the best thing about this matchup for Burns and his Hurricanes teammates is they catch a break and skip facing Connor Hellebuyck as it appears backup David Rittich will get the nod in goal for the home side. Hellebuyck has been enormous for the Jets this season as one of the very best netminders in the league, but Rittich has limped to an .890 Sv% in limited action as he’s appeared in just three games so far this season.
This isn’t the first time Rittich has struggled. He worked to an abysmal 3.57 GAA and .886 Sv% in his 17 appearances last season with the Predators and has carried that poor performance into his small sample so far this time around.
As for Burns, he is enjoying a fine first season with the ‘Canes as he’s notched three goals and 12 points across 18 games. Once again, he’s producing a very high shot volume with 68 shots on target this season, or 3.78 per game. His shooting rate has decreased in recent seasons, but his current 4.4% mark is well below his 6.6% career mark and would be his lowest since the 2017-18 season if the season ended today.
There’s plenty to like about Burns and co. in this road matchup tonight.
Noah Hanifin (Flames vs. Flyers): $5,800 FanDuel | $4,900 DraftKings
A little lighter on the wallet, Noah Hanifin makes plenty of sense as the Calgary Flames take on the Flyers tonight in Philadelphia.
I’ve been beating the Flyers regression drum for some time and, obviously, it’s kicked in. Losers of six in a row, their defensive regression has been monumental. They came out of the gate hot and ranked among the best defenses in the league early, but their six-game losing streak has seen them surrender at least four goals in all of them with an average of 4.83 goals against per game during that time.
This should come as no surprise considering the underlying numbers. The Flyers sit 29th in expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five yet still rank 14th in overall defense. Goaltender Carter Hart has saved their butts with a .922 Sv% on the season, but his numbers have taken a sharp step back of late as well.
Hanifin might only have six points in 16 games, but he also has four points over his last five contests. His minuscule 2% shooting clip is less than half of his 4.4% career mark and he’s still getting plenty of pucks on goal with 50 shots on the season to go alongside a hearty 25 blocks as well. His offensive numbers have positively regressed of late and we should expect more of that moving forward from a defenseman who tallied 48 points in 81 games last season.
He makes plenty of sense as a mid-priced blueliner in this matchup.
Alex DeBrincat (Senators vs. Sharks): $7,800 FanDuel | $7,200 DraftKings
The Ottawa Senators might have dropped 12 of their last 14 games, but Alex DeBrincat should go on a goal-scoring tear at any point now.
He does have three goals over his last four, but I’m still all over some positive shooting-rate regression moving forward. The two-time 40-goal man has five goals and 14 points across 17 games, but his 7.9% shooting rate is miles below his 15.1% career mark. He did shoot a measly 8.7% back in the 2019-20 season but has been 15.2% or better in four of his five NHL seasons so far.
The Sharks actually haven’t been bad defensively this season as per the advanced data, however, they still sit 22nd in overall defense. The main reason for the differential between the surface and underlying metrics is goaltending as tonight’s starter Kaapo Kahkonen owns a horrific 3.70 GAA and .878 Sv% on the season across just six outings. He’s 1-4-1 on the campaign.
I’d suggest DeBrincat could be in for a multi-goal effort in this home matchup tonight.
Pavel Buchnevich / Robert Thomas / Jordan Kyrou stack (Blues vs. Ducks): $17,400 FanDuel | $13,500 DraftKings
Despite the elite home matchup against the visiting Anaheim Ducks, this Blues first-line stack comes in at very generous prices on both sites.
Sure, the Blues have largely stunk the joint out so far this season as they sit 22nd in overall offense. However, they’re also facing a Ducks team that is tied for the league’s worst overall defense with 4.33 goals-against per game on the season. They also rank dead last in expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, so the data is quite telling here.
After beginning the season injured, Pavel Buchnevich has been great with 11 points on the season across 11 contests. In fact, he just posted two goals and four points his last time out against this same Ducks team. That should attract some ownership, but he makes plenty of sense right now.
Robert Thomas is the well-known playmaker on this line as he doesn’t score or shoot the puck much with four goals and 29 shots in 17 games, but he’s racked up 11 helpers on the season while he too had a big night on Saturday against the Ducks with a goal and three points on the evening.
As for Jordan Kyrou, he’s heating up after a slow start. Kyrou posted 27 goals and 75 points across 74 games in his breakout 2021-22 season and has recently come to life with two goals and seven points over his last four games. Unsurprisingly, they got into the fun on Saturday with three helpers on the evening.
This line is clearly in for another fine matchup tonight, this time on home ice.
Colton Sissons (Predators vs. Coyotes): $4,000 FanDuel | $2,600 DraftKings
Obviously, the Predators are in a fine home matchup against the Coyotes, but Colton Sissons shouldn’t see much ownership on this slate.
He skates as the team’s third-line center, but also resides on the club’s top power-play unit alongside the team’s top offensive players. The Coyotes sit seventh on the penalty kill this season, but that PP1 spot certainly provides a ton of value to a player who is dirt-cheap over at DraftKings.
Of course, we’d like to see more than a goal and four points in 18 games for a player we’re suggesting as a sleeper option at the center-ice position. He’s also produced just 16 shots in those 18 games. However, he did score his lone goal two games back and his 6.3% shooting rate is well below his 11.8% career mark. We should at least see him finding twine more often moving forward.
The PP1 spot is nice, but the Coyotes also sit 28th in expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five action, so his even-strength offensive upside gets a boost as a result.
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