NHL DFS players have a colossal 13-game slate to process this Saturday night. The volume gives us a cornucopia of options from which to make our NHL DFS picks. A slew of expensive options like Auston Matthews, Alex Ovechkin and Roman Josi require consideration, but the great matchups across the slate mean NHL DFS players have plenty of lower-priced options. A few teams will play their second game of a back-to-back, so Stokastic subscribers should check the members-only Discord for lineup changes throughout the day.
Let’s get to the picks.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Jack Eichel (VGK vs. EDM): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $9,300
The injury to Mark Stone will shuffle the Vegas lines a bit, but in his absence in Vegas’s latest game, Jack Eichel skated with Jonathan Marchessault. It’s a small sample, as those two haves skated together in the 5-on-5 for just over 40 minutes, that duo has helped Vegas generate 70 shot attempts per 60 minutes. That large offensive number speaks to the potential chemistry Eichel and Marchessault have with each other.
Edmonton coming to town is part of the appeal of using Eichel tonight. The Oilers will play their second game in as many nights, their fourth in six days, all of which came on the road. The team has to start goalie Jack Campbell – by far the worst goalie over the last calendar year by high-danger save percentage in the 5-on-5 – or an AHL net-minder. Edmonton has also surrendered the third-most power plays per game while allowing the fourth-most shots per minute on the penalty kill over the last six weeks.
Eichel ranks sixth among centers by Stokastic’s projections for DraftKings and seventh at FanDuel. He is a better value on the former site but is a fine play on both sites, either as a one-off or part of a stack.
Boone Jenner (CBJ at DET): DraftKings – $5,600 | FanDuel – $7,000
Boone Jenner hasn’t played in four weeks due to a broken finger. He had really started to turn his season around, too, as he had scored only four points in his first 10 games but proceeded to manage 18 points in his next 20 games. He averaged over three shots per game through that stretch. Jenner has earned a DraftKings shot bonus in 20% of his contests this season and even has a couple of block bonuses.
NHL DFS players should expect Jenner to skate alongside Johnny Gaudreau. That should benefit both of them: Columbus scores 3.1 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 when they’re together. When Jenner plays without Gaudreau, the team has yet to score with him on the ice, and goals have declined by over 30% for Gaudreau without Jenner. They make each other better and give the Blue Jackets a competent top line. On top of that, the power play generates 16% more shot attempts with Jenner on the ice.
Detroit’s penalty kill has struggled for weeks now. They have given up the eighth-most shots and second-most goals per minute since Dec. 1. Jenner’s return means that he and his linemates are now in play for tournaments at low ownership.
Winger
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN vs. ARI): DraftKings – $7,700 | FanDuel – $9,800
Kirill Kaprizov has started 2023 off strong. He has scored five goals in five games while averaging over five shots per game. Taking a longer view, his top line with Sam Steel has been dynamic since the two were united. The tandem has generated 3.3 expected goals and 3.9 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Their ability to consistently create offense is part of what makes them appealing on most slates.
The Wild will play this one at home, and that makes Kaprizov particularly appealing. The visiting Coyotes have given up the most power plays per game this year (3.8). Their penalty killing has gone even worse. They have given up the second-most shots and most goals per minute when down a man since Dec. 1. The Hart Trophy-contending winger is getting nearly 40% of his production this season with the man advantage, and this is a tremendous matchup for him.
Even with 13 games tonight, Kaprizov should draw plenty of ownership given his reasonable price and terrific matchup. Stokastic’s ownership projections have him at over 20% on DraftKings and roughly 17% on FanDuel. Regardless, the Russian flank and his linemates are in a high-upside spot and should all be considered for tournaments.
Sam Reinhart (FLA vs. VAN): DraftKings – $4,800 | FanDuel – $6,200
Sam Reinhart hasn’t started the year off strong. He averaged 1.05 points per game a year ago but is sitting at 0.65 this season. One big reason for that is the Panthers have scored 42% less often in the 5-on-5 this year with him on the ice than in 2021-22. Getting moved to a line with Aleksander Barkov should help in this regard, as that duo has helped Florida generate 2.8 expected goals per 60 minutes in the 5-on-5, even without Matthew Tkachuk on their line. That isn’t a tremendous number but they do control the play – nearly a 58% expected goal share – and being able to stay in the offensive zone should help their offense.
The big appeal with Vancouver in town is the special team matchup. Though Vancouver has been taking fewer penalties – second-lowest time short-handed going back to Dec. 1 – they are still giving up the third-most goals per minute when short a skater. That makes this a great spot for Reinhart and the top power-play unit.
Stokastic’s projections have Reinhart leading the way on DraftKings among wingers priced under $5,000, and the same is true on FanDuel for flanks under $7,000. Reinhart is fine by himself or in a stack for tournaments.
Eeli Tolvanen (SEA at CHI): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $4,300
Since getting plucked off waivers by Seattle, Eeli Tolvanen has four goals and six points in seven games. However, he has averaged only 13:14 of ice time and has just one game over 14 minutes through that span, the team’s recent win in Boston. However, NHL DFS sites have priced him accordingly.
Corey Sznajder, a fantasy hockey analyst, tracks NHL games for scoring chance contributions at 5-on-5, individual scoring chances and assists on teammate scoring chances. In a small sample in Nashville this year, Tolvanen compared favorably across the league to names like Tomas Hertl and Viktor Arvidsson. He may not be a high-end winger, but there are reasons to believe he is a competent middle-six scorer.
Going into Chicago gives the Kraken, and Tolvanen, a great matchup. Chicago rates at or near the bottom of the league in all defensive metrics since Dec. 1. Tolvanen has meshed well with center Yanni Gourde, as the team generates 3.1 expected goals and 72 shot attempts per 60 minutes with them together. The newest Kraken winger can be used by himself or part of a depth stack.
Defense
Rasmus Dahlin (BUF at NSH): DraftKings – $7,400 | FanDuel – $8,500
Nashville goaltender Juuse Saros has had a tremendous stretch of late. He hasn’t surrendered more than three goals in any game in over a month while posting a .941 save percentage in that span. As a team, Nashville has given up the eighth-fewest goals per minute. Only the Anaheim Ducks have given up more shots per minute than Nashville through that stretch. Had the team received just league-average goaltending, they would have allowed 12 more goals against and dropped from eighth-best in goals against per minute to 23rd. However, teams can’t rely on elite goaltending every night.
That is why Rasmus Dahlin is one of the expensive defensive options to target for this slate. If Saros is anything but an all-world goalie, Buffalo’s offense – which leads the league in goals per minute since Dec. 1 – should excel. Dahlin has scored 47 points in 39 games as he has taken a huge step in his development. On top of that, he is averaging three shots and 1.7 blocks per game. That has translated to nine of both shot and block bonuses on DraftKings. Stokastic’s projections have Dahlin under 1% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, exactly what NHL DFS players like to see for tournament options.
Ryan Pulock (NYI vs. MTL): DraftKings – $4,000 | FanDuel – $4,400
Montreal coming to town gives appeal to players that normally wouldn’t have much, and that applies to Ryan Pulock. He isn’t on pace for a tremendous season, as he could finish with under 30 points. However, over the last five weeks, Montreal has given up the fourth-most shots per minute at 5-on-5 and the seventh-most shots per minute when down a man on the penalty kill. Pulock is part of the second power-play unit, which will get less ice time compared to the top unit, but it is a positive for his fantasy profile.
The Stokastic lineup builder has the Islanders with a 3.5 team goal total, higher than Boston and Tampa Bay, and the same as Vegas and Washington. As a result, Pulock’s projections have gotten a boost. He ranks second among all blue liners on DraftKings for those priced at $4,000 or less (Jake Walman is first). That is the same order for defensemen on FanDuel with a cap hit under $5,000. DFS players looking for a mid-priced option on the blue line should consider Pulock tonight.
Goalie
Eric Comrie (BUF at NSH): DraftKings – $6,500 | FanDuel – $7,300
This all depends on Eric Comrie actually starting. Buffalo effectively has three goalies right now, so any could play, but Craig Anderson didn’t dress last game while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has allowed 18 goals in his last five starts. It seems a good spot to get Comrie back in goal.
The clear reason to play the Buffalo net-minder tonight is his price on DraftKings. He owns a minimum price for a goalie and Nashville ranks 14th in shot attempts and 22nd in goals per minute over the last six weeks. Heavy shot volume isn’t necessary for a goalie so cheap and with all the expensive skater options available, Comrie can be used in goal for tournaments.
If Comrie doesn’t get the nod, two other potential $6,500 options are available: Elvis Merzlikins from Columbus (confirmed to start) and Calvin Pickard from Edmonton (potential starter). Regardless, there are lots of spend-down options in goal on DraftKings for this slate.
FanDuel players should look to Ville Husso (DET, $7,300) for a cheap option in goal. His team is heavily favored. Husso has also played well this year with a .904 save percentage. For those reasons, Husso carries the best projected point-per-dollar value for FanDuel goaltenders by Stokastic’s projections.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
CAR1: Jarvis-Aho-Teravainen
The injury to Max Pacioretty doesn’t seem serious, but it did move Teuvo Tervainen back to Carolina’s top line. This trio has played significant minutes together this season at a high level: 3.6 expected goals generated per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 while controlling 61% of the shot attempts. As soon as they start converting on more than 6% of their shots, they will start filling the net. It should be noted Teravainen was moved to the same power-play unit as his linemates as well.
The Hurricanes will face the Pittsburgh Penguins, who come in on the wrong end of a back-to-back. They may not have their top three defensemen in Kris Letang, Jeff Petry and Marcus Pettersson (the first two are near guarantees). On top of that, this line will not often be used in a shutdown situation against Sidney Crosby. At a cheap price, they could be a popular filler, but perfect correlation and great 5-on-5 play makes them a tournament target for this slate.
VAN1: Pettersson-Boeser-Kuzmenko
There will be a lot of ownership on the Florida side, and rightly so, given the great power-play matchup for the Panthers. However, NHL DFS players shouldn’t ignore Florida’s defensive deficiencies, either. Over their last 20 games, the Panthers have given up the eighth-most goals per minute when short-handed, just a bit better than the woeful Montreal Canadiens. On the year, Florida gives up the second-most power plays to the opponent. That mix of little discipline and poor penalty-killing makes a good recipe for the Vancouver side.
In a limited 80-minute sample, Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser have been very good together offensively, generating 3.2 expected goals and 4.3 actual goals per 60 minutes. They also skate on the top power play for the Canucks, and they’re scoring nearly 10 goals per 60 minutes. The Stokastic top stacks tool has this trio under 2% ownership on DraftKings and under 1% on FanDuel. Florida has a great matchup, but it’s not bad for Vancouver, either, and they should be considered for tournaments.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
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