NHL DFS Picks Today: Mathew Barzal, Connor McDavid (October 26)

With a couple of games on TNT and one filler, there is a small three-game slate on Wednesday night. However, there are still some great options to sift through for NHL DFS.

Let’s examine the best plays for Wednesday on the DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS today. Of course, be sure to check Stokastic’s NHL DFS rankings and NHL DFS projections.

NHL DFS Picks for DraftKings

Center

Mathew Barzal (NYI-NYR): $4,600

While most DFS players are going to stack the Rangers’ superstars, there is value in going the opposite direction and taking some of the Islanders’ top guys. The Islanders’ top line (Bailey-Barzal-Wahlstrom) is a strong stack as they produce almost all of the offense on this team.

More than anything else, this stack is a fade of the projected starting goaltender for the Rangers, Jaroslav Halak. Since the Rangers are in the second half of a back-to-back after a game that went into a shootout, they are likely to go with the backup netminder.

Through his first two starts of the season, Halak has struggled as he is 0-2 with a .852 SV% and 4.03 GAA. If he qualified, he would rank third-last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at five-on-five.

This poor start to the season is likely to continue against the Islanders, his former club. In his four starts against them since leaving, he is 0-2-2 with a .825 SV% and 5.62 GAA.

Halak’s best days are likely long behind him as he has failed to post an SV% north of .905 since the 2019-20 campaign. The first Islanders player to stack is the playmaking centerman, Mathew Barzal.

To start the year, Barzal has registered six assists, 16 shots on goal (SOG) and two blocked shots through the first six games. Over his last three games against the Rangers, Barzal has posted one goal, three assists and eight SOG.

Centering both the first line and skating with the first power play unit, Barzal should have plenty of opportunities to continue his success against the Rangers.

Connor McDavid (EDM-STL): $8,600

Perhaps the chalkiest play on the board, Connor McDavid is still a must-play despite his projected high ownership. There has not been a better performing mini-stack over the last few years of DFS than McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (more on him later).

It is not a secret that the Oilers completely revolve around their two superstars, who are also two of the most gifted offensive players on the planet. Through six games, McDavid has already posted five goals, five assists, 21 SOG and two blocked shots.

One of the favorites to win the Hart Trophy every single year, it is considered an “off-night” for McDavid if he records less than two points in a game. A generational talent and likely to go down as the most gifted player to ever lace a pair of skates, it would be shocking if he is held off the scoresheet for a third straight game.

Over his last four games against St. Louis, McDavid has posted three goals, two assists and 20 SOG.

Leon Draisaitl (EDM-STL): $7,100

To complete the chalky mini-stack, Draisaitl must be paired with McDavid at this price. It is shocking that Draisaitl’s price is $1,500 less than McDavid’s, but it is likely due to a bit of name-recognition bias.

Not that the hockey world does not know and appreciate Draisaitl’s greatness, but it is fair to say that he is not as common of a household name as McDavid. That being said, his production almost compares to that of McDavid’s over the last couple of seasons.

Through six games this season, he has logged three goals, eight assists, 21 SOG and five blocked shots. As one of the nastiest power play units in all of hockey, McDavid and Draisaitl typically feed off each other with the man advantage and are almost guaranteed to find the back of the net at least once.

Over his last seven games against St. Louis, Draisaitl has posted four goals, seven assists and 33 SOG.

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Winger

Oliver Wahlstrom (NYI-NYR): $4,300

Continuing with the Islanders stack, winger Oliver Wahlstrom earned a promotion this week and now skates alongside Barzal on the first line. This game should be a perfect opportunity to buy on Wahlstrom with the new role while skating alongside the team’s best playmaker.

Through five games this season, he has logged three goals, an assist, 18 SOG and one blocked shot. Earning the bump to the first line, Wahlstrom has arguably been the Islanders’ most dangerous scoring threat outside of Anders Lee this season despite his previously sheltered role.

At five-on-five, Wahlstrom ranks first on the Islanders in goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60), points per 60 minutes and third in xGF/60. Over the last three games that he has played when Halak was in the opposing net, the winger has logged two goals.

Coach Lane Lambert continues to make line changes throughout the lineup to generate more scoring chances and this change should benefit Wahlstrom immensely, as Barzal’s skating ability typically opens the shooting lanes for the wingers he plays with.

Brandon Hagel (TB-ANA): $3,300

The last stack to create on Wednesday is for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are on the road against a struggling Anaheim Ducks team. Anaheim has been a mess to start the season as they have now lost five straight games and have been awful both defensively and between the pipes.

At five-on-five, the Ducks rank 31st in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Projected to back up this defense between the pipes is goaltender John Gibson, who has had a tough start to the year.

Through five starts, Gibson is 1-3-1 with a .892 SV% and 4.51 GAA. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 26th in GSAx/60 at five-on-five.

The first Lightning player to target is Brandon Hagel, one of the best value plays on the board. Skating on the first line alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, Hagel basically just has to exist and he will get at least a point.

Now, to give more credit to Hagel, he has taken advantage of this role and has been excellent over the last two games, posting two goals, an assist, five SOG and three blocked shots. Through three career games against Anaheim, he has logged two goals, an assist and four SOG.

Ross Colton (TB-ANA): $3,100

Continuing with the Tampa Bay stack, winger Ross Colton should be a good pairing with Hagel as both guys are on the second power play unit. Special teams should be a big mismatch between these two teams, which means power play goals could be huge for DFS if you stack those involved.

This season, the Bolts rank eighth in the league in PP% while the Ducks rank 26th in PK%. Colton should be relatively low-owned because of his lack of production to start the year as he has only put up one goal and two assists through three games.

However, buying low on a player is important in DFS, and scoring with the second power play unit is a real possibility. If he does so, then it is likely that Hagel also grabs a point and that would make this cheap stack very valuable.

Defensemen

Noah Dobson (NYI vs. NYR): $6,400

To complete the Islanders’ stack, defenseman Noah Dobson is a great player to target. Skating with Barzal on the first power play unit, DFS players can kill two birds with one stone if the Islanders can muster a special teams goal.

Regardless of whether that happens or not, Dobson has been a staple in DFS lineups to start the season because of his point production and willingness to shoot the puck as a defenseman. Through six games, he has logged two goals, three assists, 16 SOG and eight blocked shots.

Across his last three games against the Rangers, Dobson has racked up three assists and four SOG. An even more ideal scenario would be him grabbing an assist along with Barzal if Wahlstrom finds the back of the net, which is entirely possible given that those three guys are among the best scoring options on this Islanders team.

Mikhail Sergachev (TB at ANA): $4,600

To complete the Tampa Bay stack, defenseman Mikhail Sergachev should be a tremendous value play at just $4,600. The Lightning is on the second half of a back-to-back, which means quicker shifts for the defenseman and an increased role for a second-pairing guy like Sergachev.

Additionally, Sergachev skates alongside Hagel and Colton with the second power play unit, so it is possible to kill three birds with one stone, given how bad Anaheim’s penalty kill has been. Even if the power play unit does not get it going, Sergachev is a great DFS option because of how he accumulates points through blocking shots.

Through six games this year, he has four assists, 12 SOG and a whopping 17 blocked shots. Over his last four games against Anaheim, the defenseman has posted three assists and four SOG.

Goaltender

Jordan Binnington (STL vs. EDM): $7,900

One of the best methods in DFS is a play to create separation from others. The majority of the public will not play a goaltender against skaters they are also stacking and there is a lot of potential value that people overlook in doing so.

In DFS, you need a goaltender who is going to face a ton of shots so he can accumulate points via saves. Edmonton rarely struggles to get pucks on net because of its personnel, so there should be no issue there.

At $7,900, Jordan Binnington should be a tremendous value play at a relatively cheap price as most people will not want to start a goaltender against Edmonton. Yes, Binnington shut out Edmonton just a couple of games ago, but that is highly unlikely to occur twice in a row.

However, we should still expect a strong outing from a guy who has looked brilliant since re-taking over the starting role after Ville Husso went to Detroit over the off-season. Through three starts this year, Binnington is 3-0 with a .940 SV% and 1.65 GAA.

In an ideal universe, McDavid and Draisaitl will combine for 10+ SOG and 1+ points while Binnington grabs 35+ saves and a win. Will things work out that way?

Maybe, maybe not. But the possibility is certainly there, and combining all three of those players in one lineup is a good way to differentiate the many lineups that will have both McDavid and Draisaitl.

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