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Best MLB Home Run Derby Props Today (7/18): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

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MLB All-Star week festivities commence at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles tonight as the 2022 Home Run Derby kicks off at 8 p.m. ET. The contestant field is loaded with some of the best long-ball artists in the league, ranging from rookie Julio Rodriguez to Albert Pujols in his final All-Star stand. Stateside sportsbooks offer a slew of props to keep the event that much more entertaining throughout. Mild nine mph winds are expected to be blowing out to center, and Chavez Ravine may consume some of the hanging fly balls before they reach the fences.

The first two rounds give the hitters three minutes with a bonus 30 seconds awarded to each hitter per round. Additional 30-second bonuses will be awarded to each home run that exceeds 475 feet. The matchups per round are as follows:

2022 MLB Home Run Derby picks best home run derby predictions prop bets


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Best MLB Home Run Derby Bets Today: Baseball Prop Betting Picks 7/18

Corey Seager vs. Julio Rodriguez | Claim YOUR $200 FREE at BetMGM

Corey Seager makes his return to Dodger Stadium in a Home Run Derby opening round matchup with Julio Rodriguez rewarding +125 odds should he survive the round. Seager has earned 22 home runs this season with a 15.9% strikeout rate, .228 ISO and a 46.2% hard-hit rate. Rodriguez has managed 16 home runs, .202 ISO, with 51% hard contact. Seager holds a 111.3 mph maximum exit velocity while his 14-degree average launch angle should aid in his long-ball prowess within his old stomping grounds in Los Angeles. Rodriguez has a slightly elevated 115 mph maximum exit velocity this season while the 10.1-degree average launch angle may lead to some hits landing in the trenches unsuspectingly, more notably during the waning moments if it comes down to a tie-breaker under duress. Plus money odds on a comfortable Seager in his original homefield stand lending a quarter up on even money makes for excellent opening round value over the rookie phenom.

Best MLB Betting Pick Today: Corey Seager advances to Round 2 over Julio Rodriguez (+125)


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Pete Alonso Highest Exit Velocity O/U 109.5 | Claim YOUR $200 FREE at BetMGM

Pete Alonso goes for the three-peat tonight in Los Angeles as his title retention remains defended since 2019. Alonso is hitting a .253 ISO with a 20.5% strikeout rate including 24 total home runs this season. He is facing a maximum exit velocity prop of 109.5 mph at -110 odds. His career maximum velocity remains 118.4 mph from the 2021 season with a 45.6% hard-hit rate this year. Considering it’s a near foregone conclusion for Alonso to at least surpass Ronald Acuna Jr. in the opening round, the suspected opportunity count rises for Alonso to smash at least one ball above 110 mph. Acuna has reportedly been uncomfortable at the plate as of late with a meager eight home runs total this season, further alluding to a first-round victory for Alonso.

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Though Alonso’s 89.9 mph average exit velocity this season remains a mild concern, the obvious stage being much more suited to harnessing the best hitting atmosphere for contenders mitigates much of it as Alonso is well versed in this setting. Paying standard juice for the current Derby favorite to land one opportunity exceeding 110 mph makes sense.

Best MLB Betting Pick Today: Pete Alonso OVER 109.5 Max Exit Velocity (-110)


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Round 1: Player To Hit Most Home Runs | Claim YOUR $200 FREE at BetMGM

In more of an outlier prop pick, the total opening round home runs offers sizeable rewards with attention on a matchup between two of the top total home run hitters between Juan Soto (20) and Jose Ramirez (19). While the public is favoring Soto to best the round as the third overall favorite to reach the final found, Ramirez’s 21.9-degree average launch angle lends some confidence in the underdog to make it out of the first round. Soto is averaging a 7.6-degree launch angle with a 12.8% barrel rate under usual circumstances, making for more line drives per contact.

The odds on Soto to hit the most home runs in the first round sits at +600 odds with Ramirez tailing just behind at +650, while finalist second-favorite Kyle Schwarber rounds out the bottom next to Pujols at +900 odds. This insinuates a potential rubber match between Soto and Ramirez in the first round while mild winds and substantial humidity can aid the carry in what is typically deemed a pitcher’s park. Tossing a dart on Ramirez at +650 to squeak into the second round with the most opening round home runs offers entertaining value with a considerable early reward.

Best MLB Betting Pick Today: Jose Ramirez Most First Round Home Runs (+650)

Home Run Derby Winner | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

It’s awfully difficult to swing against a picturesque narrative of an Alonso three-peat tonight at +200 odds with each potential round leaning favorably in his direction. Drawing an intro round against Acuna insinuates Alonso will not need to get into an early high-volume duel, while a second-round matchup with either Rodriguez or Seager would set the stage for him to start settling in against stiffer competition to garner the necessary 30-second bonuses to reach the final round. If an upset were to occur, it is suspected it to be in that second round with an acclimated Seager though a final round with Soto or Schwarber could get tense if Alonso can’t retain the angle late.

Alonso isn’t aided by Coors Field elevation this time though the expected 81% humidity should help matters with the 400 ft distance to pay dirt. The 2-to-1 return on investment remains blandly appealing under the format’s wager circumstances and Alonso playing clear favorite. Seizing the moment already twice over and thriving in such a contest environment, the 2022 Home Run Derby champion title should fall into Alonso’s grasp for the third time in a row.

Best MLB Betting Pick Today: Pete Alonso Home Run Derby Champion (+200)


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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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