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Best MLB Bets Today (7/29): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer



It’s Friday, July 29, and full MLB slates are a great way to start off the weekend. There are some big arms going on the mound like Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Alek Manoah, Shane Bieber, Robbie Ray, Brandon Woodruff and Sandy Alcantara. There are also some games to expect some runs to pop off such as the Cardinals – Nationals, Dodgers – Rockies and Braves – Diamondbacks. With 15 games going on, bettors can play the storylines and get all kinds of action happening throughout the evening. OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making MLB bets today. Below are three strikeout props, two home run props and one total bases prop — the best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Gerrit Cole O/U 8.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Gerrit Cole pitches to the Kansas City Royals in New York tonight. Cole has a 32.3% strikeout rate and averages 1.28 strikeouts per inning. To reach nine strikeouts, it would take seven innings on average. Cole has gone seven innings or more in 7 of his 20 starts this season. He has gone over this prop in 9 of his 20 starts, including two of his last three. He last pitched to Kansas City on April 30, where he went six innings and struck out six batters. Because Cole averages closer to six innings per start, his prop should be at 7.5. The current line of 8.5 is too high, and the under is the recommended bet.

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The Pick: Gerrit Cole UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-140)

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Jeffrey Springs O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Jeffrey Springs will face the Cleveland Guardians tonight. Springs has a 26.3% strikeout rate and averages 1.05 strikeouts per inning. With his prop set at 4.5, he would have to pitch 4.1 innings or more on average to go over this prop. Although they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 18.4%, they strike out more frequently against lefties. Against lefties, Cleveland has the 20th-highest strikeout rate at 21.2%. In his 12 starts, Springs has gone 58 innings, averaging 4.83 innings per start. If they let him go five or more innings — which he has done in six of his 12 starts, — he will go over this prop.

Best MLB Pick Today: Jeffrey Springs OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-104)

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Tyler O’Neill O/U 0.5 Home Runs |Claim $200 FREE

Tyler O’Neill and the Cardinals will see Anibal Sanchez on the mound against the Washington Nationals. Sanchez has pitched only 10 innings, and in that sample he has allowed 2.70 HR/9, meaning the Cardinals have a good chance of hitting some home runs today. O’Neill’s power has been down this season (.117 ISO), but he also has been battling injuries this season. In the second half of 2022, his ISO has been .143, which is a step in the right direction. The talent is still there, and this is a good matchup for O’Neill to hit some home runs.

Best MLB Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350)

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Sandy Alcantara O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Sandy Alcantara is going against the New York Mets tonight, who have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate on the season. Alcantara has a 24.3% strikeout rate and averages 0.92 strikeouts per inning. For the most part, Alcantara has been racking up strikeouts by going deep into games, as he averages just over seven innings per start. In order for Alcantara to reach six strikeouts on average, he would have to pitch 6.2 innings or more. He has faced the Mets three times this year. In those three starts, he pitched 22 innings and struck out 16 batters for an average of 0.73 batters per inning. Because he is coming off a 10-strikeout start and a 12-strikeout start before that, this prop is a tad high. Five strikeouts in seven innings would be a reasonable expectation for Alcantara against a team with a low strikeout rate.

The MLB Best Bet: Sandy Alcantara UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)

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Austin Riley O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Claim $200 FREE

Austin Riley O/U 1.5 Total Bases

Austin Riley will see Madison Bumgarner on the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight in Arizona. Bumgarner has a 3.71 ERA but a 4.70 xFIP and allows a hard-hit rate of 41.9% this season. In addition, he is allowing 1.21 HR/9. Riley has a .470 wOBA and a .375 ISO against lefties this year, and Bumgarner is an average pitcher at best at this stage of his career. The recommendation here is a normal bet on the total bases prop and a small bet on the home run prop. That way, a double or gets two bases still leads to a profit, even without the home run. The Braves in general are in a great spot, and all power hitters in that lineup are recommended tonight.

The Betting Pick: Austin Riley OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+240); Austin Riley OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-125)

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