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Best MLB Bets Today (7/14): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer

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It’s Thursday, July 14, and we have been blessed with 11 night games. Often, Thursdays are filled with off days and day games, so getting a majority of the action at night is very helpful when it comes to betting baseball. There are many games of interest, such as the Dodgers and Cardinals wrapping up their series, the White Sox and Twins starting up theirs, and an incredible pitching duel between Corbin Burnes and Carlos Rodon. With all the games going on, it can be difficult to prioritize the best MLB bets today.

OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are three strikeout props, three home run props and one total bases prop — our best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.


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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Corbin Burnes O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Corbin Burnes is pitching against San Francisco tonight, and he has a 32.4% strikeout rate and is averaging 1.26 strikeouts per inning. In order to reach eight strikeouts, Burnes would have to pitch 6.1 innings on average. The Giants, on the other hand, have just the 13th-highest strikeout rate against righties (22.8%). This is not a matchup where Burnes will have a significant strikeout boost. On April 25, Burnes started against the Giants and struck out 11 batters in six innings. That 11-strikeout total is the highest he has had all season; he has matched it just one other time. Since the start of the season, his strikeout numbers have started to tail off a bit. At +130 odds, the under is a good bet, as he should be projected for closer to seven strikeouts than eight tonight.

Best MLB Pick Today: Corbin Burnes UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (+130)


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Triston McKenzie O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Triston McKenzie will face the Detroit Tigers in Cleveland tonight. McKenzie has a 22.9% strikeout rate and averages 0.9 strikeouts per inning. Detroit has the sixth-highest strikeout rate against righties this season (23.8%). On average it would take 6.2 innings to reach six strikeouts, but McKenzie should get a strikeout boost in this matchup tonight. He can regularly go past six innings — he went seven innings against the Yankees on July 3 and 7.2 innings against Detroit on May 29. With a strikeout boost and innings upside, don’t be surprised if McKenzie goes over this prop tonight.

Best MLB Pick Today: Triston McKenzie OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)


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Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run | Claim $200 FREE

Seiya Suzuki will face Carlos Carrasco and the Mets bullpen tonight. Suzuki has six home runs on the year and a .196 ISO. Carrasco has been allowing 1.06 HR/9 this season and a 38.5% hard-hit rate. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Suzuki a 17% chance of hitting a home run tonight, with the +650 odds implying a 13.3% chance. This probability difference gives this bet a 27% expected ROI, despite the fact that Suzuki isn’t a big power hitter and Carrasco hasn’t allowed a lot of home runs this year.

Best MLB Pick Today: Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+650)


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Keegan Thompson O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Keegan Thompson has a 23.4% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.96 strikeouts per inning. On average, if he were to strike out five batters, he would have to pitch 5.1 innings. In his last five starts, Thompson had nine, seven, eight, three and eight strikeouts. Is this variance, or is he starting to make adjustments and increase his strikeouts? The Mets have the third-lowest strikeout rate against righties this season (19.8%), which is the risk in this bet. Still, with his increased strikeout rate recently and the +130 odds, the over is a bet to take a look at tonight.

Best MLB Pick Today: Keegan Thompson OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+130)


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Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run | Claim $200 FREE

With 23 home runs and a .278 ISO, Giancarlo Stanton is always a threat to hit a home run. Facing Luis Castillo tonight, his odds are more favorable relative to his probability of hitting a home run, according to Stokastic’s MLB betting model. The model gives Stanton a 23% chance of hitting a home run. The +390 odds imply a 20.4% chance. This 2.6% difference gives this bet a 14% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+390)


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Mike Yastrzemski O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Claim $200 FREE

This bet has the highest expected ROI out of all the prop bets on OddsShopper, with a 32% expected ROI. Mike Yastrzemski has a 13% chance of hitting a home run, according to the model. The +950 odds imply a 9.5% chance of hitting a home run. Burnes allows 1.02 HR/9 this season, and Milwaukee’s bullpen has allowed the 13th-most home runs this season (38). There is not a high likelihood that Yastrzemski will go yard, but if he does, it will pay off.

Best MLB Pick Today: Mike Yastrzemski OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+950)


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