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Best MLB Bets Today (5/21): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

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A busy sports Saturday includes a fully loaded 16-game itinerary of Major League Baseball featuring all 30 teams with a doubleheader at Coors Field as an added weekend bonus. At OddsShopper, there are four games with a Vegas run total of 9.5 or higher and some pitchers having upstart seasons offer value by strikeout props among the best MLB bets today. While field conditions in Colorado remain a mild concern, weather across the league looks to be OK, though there could be some trouble in Cleveland. Today, this article will focus on player props, including Justin Steele and Alejandro Kirk to round out Saturday’s baseball betting picks today.


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Best MLB Bets Today: Free Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Justin Steele O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Today, Steele faces the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a 25.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching — sixth overall in MLB. At OddsShopper, Steele has a 4.5 total strikeouts prop at -105 odds, which, according to our tools, is one of the best MLB betting picks today. Slated to face five lefties and two switch-hitters, Steele has a 32.2% strikeout rate and .208 average against lefties over his two seasons in the big leagues. In his last start, ironically against the Diamondbacks, Steele allowed three hits and two runs earned but struck out 10 in six innings. At minimal juice on a lower strikeout total, take the over on Steele’s strikeouts against Arizona.

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Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Justin Steele OVER 4.5 Total Strikeouts (+118)


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Alejandro Kirk O/U 1.5 Total Bases | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Kirk is expected to be the designated hitter for the Toronto Blue Jays as they host rookie Hunter Greene and the Cincinnati Reds. He has a 1.5 total bases prop with rewarding +140 odds. This season, Kirk has been solid at the plate with a .269 batting average, .681 OPS and does not strike out all that often (9.5%).

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Outside of Greene’s recent almost no-hitter performance against Pittsburgh, he has a .290 average against and is allowing a lofty 4.8 home runs per nine innings, with most of the damage coming against right-handed hitters. Against righties, Kirk has a .263 batting average and 105 wRC+ (16 singles, three doubles and a home run) this season.

Greene has been the beneficiary of an elevated strand rate (67.6%) and FIP (9.22), so it is likely to regress, which could mean big things for the right-handed Blue Jays lineup. At stellar plus-money odds in need of just two bases to cash in, the over on Kirk’s total bases against the Reds seems to be one of the best baseball betting picks today.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Alejandro Kirk OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+140)


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J.D. Martinez O/U 0.5 Total Home Runs | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

The Boston Red Sox battle Chris Flexen and the Seattle Mariners on Saturday. The seemingly ageless J.D. Martinez, who is still getting it done at the plate, sports a 0.5 home runs prop. Martinez has been impressive so far in 2022, with a .349 batting average, .966 OPS, and five home runs all against righties.

Flexen has struggled against right-handed power bats in his big league tenure, with a career 37.3% hard-hit rate and 2.38 HR/9. He has already surrendered six home runs to right-handed batters this season, which is aided by his 40.3% hard-hit rate. With one of the more rewarding returns on investment feasibly attainable across today’s player props, Martinez’s home run prop remains difficult to ignore.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: J.D. Martinez OVER 0.5 Total Home Runs (+330)


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Max Kepler O/U 1.5 Total Bases | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Max Kepler comes into a matchup against Brad Keller and the Kansas City Royals with an over/under 1.5 total bases prop.

Keller has not been awful against lefties thus far, but he does have a 1.71 HR/9 and 19% home-run-to-fly-ball rate against them this season. So, that adds some intrigue to the over 1.5 total bases, as Kepler has four home runs and a .175 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. It would not take much for Kepler to clear the 1.5 bases needed to cash this ticket.

Another plus-money prop that requires just two total bases, the over on Kepler’s total bases stands as another one of the best MLB predictions today.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Max Kepler OVER 1.5 Total Bases


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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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