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Best MLB Bets Today (8/5): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer

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It is Friday, Aug. 5, the start of another weekend, meaning there is almost a full slate of MLB games … 14 to be exact. There are a few cases of players going against former teams, such as Jose Berrios against the Twins and Eric Hosmer against the Royals. As far as competitive games go, Braves – Mets, Yankees – Cardinals and the new-look Padres against the Dodgers are the places to go to see likely playoff teams battling it out tonight. If you want to sweat this exciting MLB action, BetMGM is offering a RISK-FREE BET up to $1,000.

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This article will have the best picks according to Stokastic models to give you the best chance to win. With so many games going on, OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making MLB bets today. Below are four strikeout props and two home run props — the best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Jose Berrios O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET

Jose Berrios has had a tough season this year, but the strikeouts have been there. He has just a 21.6% strikeout rate and is averaging just 0.93 strikeouts per inning. To get six strikeouts, he would have to pitch 6.2 innings on average. He does face his former team in the Minnesota Twins tonight, but they have just the 19th-highest strikeout rate in baseball. The Stokastic MLB Model gives him a 66% chance of going under this total and a 26% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Jose Berrios UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Robert Dugger O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET

Robert Dugger is making his first start of the 2022 season. He has 12 career starts, 26 total appearances and 82.2 innings at the major league level in the past few seasons. In three games and 12 innings, he has a 32.7% strikeout rate and is averaging 1.42 strikeouts per inning. If he can maintain that level, this prop is a smash. In his career, he averages 0.79 strikeouts per inning, so it would take him five innings to reach four strikeouts. He has gone 5.1 innings in one appearance this year, and in Triple-A he has gone as many as 6.2 innings. The over is the best prop bet of the day according to OddsShopper, with a 35% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Robert Dugger OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)


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Dylan Cease O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET

Dylan Cease is having a career year, with a 2.01 ERA, 3.02 xFIP and a 33.3% strikeout rate. He is averaging 1.38 strikeouts per inning. Texas has the eighth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season (23.4%). Even with all of these great numbers, eight or more strikeouts is a hard line to bet. Cease has gone over this total in 13 of 21 total starts, but he has gone under in his last two starts. OddsShopper gives Cease a 57% chance of going under the total for a 21% expected ROI, with a 7.1 strikeout projection.

Best MLB Pick Today: Dylan Cease UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (+110)


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Glenn Otto O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET

On the other side of the game, Glenn Otto will pitch to the Chicago White Sox. Otto has just an 18% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.79 strikeouts per inning. To make matters worse for Otto, the White Sox have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. The Stokastic MLB model gives the under a 70% chance of winning.

Best MLB Pick Today: Glen Otto UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)


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Yordan Alvarez O/U 0.5 Home Runs | BetMGM RISK FREE BET

Yordan Alvarez and the Houston Astros will see Hunter Gaddis on the mound from the Cleveland Guardians tonight. Gaddis is making his major league debut tonight. He has made 14 starts in Double-A and then two starts in Triple-A before getting promoted. In Double-A, he had a 4.24 ERA and a 3.61 xFIP. In Triple-A, he had a 2.70 ERA and a 5.04 xFIP. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Alvarez just a 12% chance of hitting a home run, meaning he has an 88% chance of not hitting a home run. Even at -290 odds, the bet has an expected ROI of 19%

Best MLB Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez UNDER 0.5 Home Runs (-290)

Eric Hosmer O/U 0/5 Home Runs | BetMGM RISK FREE BET

Eric Hosmer will face his former team, the Kansas City Royals, with Zack Greinke on the mound in Kauffman Stadium. Hosmer is not a big home run hitter, as he has just eight on the season and a .118 ISO. That said, he is back in Kansas City, and maybe there are fans there that will be excited to see him back. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Hosmer an 11% chance of hitting a home run tonight. At +1000 odds, that gives this pick a 20% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Eric Hosmer OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+1000)

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