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Best MLB Bets Today (7/8): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer

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It’s Friday, July 8, and the start of a new weekend. This means that all 30 MLB teams are in action tonight. The slate kicks off between two aces with Shane McClanahan and the Tampa Bay Rays facing Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds in what should be an interesting pitching matchup. Pablo Lopez and Chris Bassitt facing off in New York is another exciting pitching matchup to follow. Although the game could be very lopsided, Yankees-Red Sox always garners some interest and attention as it’s one of the best rivalries in the sport. Phillies vs. Cardinals and Giants vs. Padres are also two very interesting games from a competitive standpoint. The Cardinals are one game behind the Phillies in the NL Wild Card Standings, while the Giants are one game behind the Phillies and four games behind the Padres in the NL Wild Card Standings, too. With a lot of exciting action, sometimes it is difficult to narrow down how to approach the slate to find the best MLB bets today.

OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are three strikeout props and two home run props — our best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.


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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Chris Bassitt O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Chris Bassitt pitches to the Miami Marlins tonight. He has a 25.7% strikeout rate, a career-best 3.55 xFIP, and 1.06 strikeouts per inning. On average, it would take 5.2 innings pitched to reach the over on this bet. Miami has a 22.4% strikeout rate against RHP, which is the 15th highest in the league. For Bassitt, this is a strikeout-neutral matchup and it’s fair to lean more towards his average rates for this game. Given there have only been two out of 15 starts where Bassitt has gone less than 5.2 innings, he has a strong chance of going at least six innings and going over. The Stokastic MLB Model gives him a 55% chance of going over and the bet has a 21% expected ROI.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Chris Bassitt OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)


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Check out Eytan Shander’s Top 3 FREE MLB picks today. Eytan breaks down the best NRFI (no run first inning) picks and predictions for Friday.

Tyler Wells O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Tyler Wells faces the Los Angeles Angels tonight. Wells’ strikeouts are much lower this year than they were last year. Last year, he had a 29% strikeout rate and averaged 1.14 strikeouts per inning. This year, his strikeout rate is 16.7%, averaging 0.66 strikeouts per inning. At his given rate, it would take between 7.1 and 7.2 innings pitched to reach five strikeouts. He has had only one game that hit this over and that was his last start where he went six innings and logged seven strikeouts against the Minnesota Twins. Either he has turned the corner and his strikeouts will come at a higher rate, or his last start was an outlier to this season. To take the under at plus-money odds is a good move here. The model gives Wells a 64% chance of staying under the prop bet tonight.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Tyler Wells UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)


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Jared Walsh O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Jared Walsh will be facing the Tyler Wells just referenced above tonight. Wells allows 1.02 HR/9 this season and has a 36.4% hard-hit rate. Walsh has a .205 ISO against RHP this season with 11 of his 13 home runs coming from right-handed pitchers. OddsShopper gives Walsh a 20% chance of hitting a home run tonight, while the +650 odds imply a 13.3% chance. That difference gives this bet a 47% expected ROI.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Jared Walsh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+650)


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Shane McClanahan O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

The Cincinnati Reds will have the task of facing Shane McClanahan tonight. This season McClanahan has a 35.9% strikeout rate and is averaging 1.35 strikeouts per inning. Based on his averages alone, it would take about six innings pitched to reach eight strikeouts. He has collected eight or more strikeouts in 10 of his 16 starts this season. The Reds have the 12th-highest strikeout rate against LHP this season (22.8%) and the last time McClanahan went less than six innings pitched was on May 5.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Shane McClanahan OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)


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Austin Hays To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Going back to the Angels vs. Orioles game for another prop bet tonight. Austin Hays and the Orioles will face Reid Detmers. This season, Detmers is allowing 1.72 HR/9 and a 41.7% hard-hit rate. Hays has a .205 ISO against LHP this season and a .216 ISO against LHP for his career. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Hays a 17% chance of hitting a home run, while the +700 odds imply a 12.5% chance. That difference gives this bet a 35% expected ROI.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Austin Hays To Hit A Home Run (+700)


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