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Best MLB Bets Today (7/22): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer

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It is Friday, July 22, and MLB is back from the All-Star Break with a full slate of games for the first time this week. Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer will face off in Queens, with the Mets hosting the Padres. There is also an important AL East series opening up, with Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays going to Boston to face Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox. Shohei Ohtani and Charlie Morton dueling in Atlanta will be another fun one to keep an eye on tonight. Then, in the 10 p.m. ET timeslot, Astros – Mariners and Giants – Dodgers begin their series. In total, there are 14 games tonight, all starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. With that many games, it can be difficult to prioritize the best MLB bets today.

OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are four strikeout props two home run props, and one total bases prop — our best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.


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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Charlie Morton O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Charlie Morton is pitching against the Los Angeles Angels in Atlanta tonight. Morton has a 27.1% strikeout rate and averages 1.15 strikeouts per inning. With his prop set at 7.5 strikeouts, it would take seven innings to hit the over on this bet on average. Morton has gone seven innings in four of his last six starts, and in each of those four starts he went over 7.5 strikeouts three times. Looking at the entire season, he has gone over this total in just 6 out of 18 total starts this season. On the plus side, the Angels have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties, at 27.1%. Because of how well he has pitched recently, and going against the best possible opponent for strikeouts, the over is the recommended bet here.

Best MLB Pick Today: Charlie Morton OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)


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Logan Webb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim YOUR $200 FREE

Logan Webb faces the Los Angeles Dodgers in Los Angeles tonight. The Dodgers have the 19th-highest strikeout rate against righties this season, at 21.7%. Webb has a 21.4% strikeout rate and averages 0.86 strikeouts per inning. To reach five or more strikeouts, he would have to pitch six innings, and he has 5.2 innings or more in nine consecutive starts. He has not faced the Dodgers yet this season despite the teams playing each other a handful of times this season. The Stokastic MLB model gives Webb a 66% chance of going over this strikeout prop, for a 21% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Logan Webb OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)


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Shohei Ohtani O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Claim YOUR $200 FREE
Shohei Ohtani O/U 0.5 Total Bases

Not only will Shohei Ohtani pitch against the Atlanta Braves, but he will also bat against Morton. Ohtani has 19 home runs and a .228 ISO on the season, and he has a .384 wOBA and .286 ISO against righties. Facing Morton will be a tough task for Ohtani, but pitching to Ohtani will be a tough task for Morton too. OddsShopper gives Ohtani a 19% chance of hitting a home run, and the +700 odds make the over a 49% expected ROI bet. His 0.5 total bases prop is also low and is a recommended bet in the event Ohtani gets a hit that isn’t a home run.

Best MLB Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+700); Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-120)


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Cole Irvin O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim YOUR $200 FREE

Cole Irvin pitches against the Texas Rangers tonight in Oakland. Irvin has a low 16.1% strikeout rate and averages 0.65 strikeouts per inning. The Rangers also have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate against lefties this season, at 19.8%. Irvin has gone over this total in just 3 of his 16 starts this season. According to the Stokastic MLB Model, Irvin has a 65% chance of staying under the total, giving the bet a 22% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Cole Irvin UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)


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Ryan McMahon O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Claim YOUR $200 FREE

Ryan McMahon faces Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen tonight in Milwaukee. McMahon has been disappointing from a power perspective this year, with just seven home runs and a .136 ISO — down from his 23 home runs and .196 ISO in 2021. This bet is all about the difference in odds. OddsShopper gives McMahon a 12% chance of hitting a home run, while +1000 odds imply a 9.1% chance. This difference gives this bet a very high expected ROI of 35%, even though the outcome (12% chance of hitting a home run) is unlikely.

Best MLB Pick Today: Ryan McMahon OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+1000)


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Graham Ashcraft O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | Claim YOUR $200 FREE

Graham Ashcraft will be facing off against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. Ashcraft has a 13.3% strikeout rate, averaging 0.59 strikeouts per inning. On average, it would take seven innings to reach four strikeouts or more. He has gone that deep into a game in 2 of his 10 starts this season. The Stokastic MLB Model projects Ashcraft for 3.1 strikeouts and gives him a 62% chance of staying under the prop, for a 19% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Graham Ashcraft UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)


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