NBA Player Props & Betting Picks Today

The 2022 NBA Finals have officially reached deep waters. For the sixth time in the last two weeks, the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics will lace them up and do battle on the hardwood tonight. Thursday’s Game 6 presents the first opportunity for either team to close out the series and win a championship. While the Warriors will be seeking to do just that, the Celtics will be counting on a return home to TD Garden to fuel them in their quest to force a decisive Game 7. Among the many options available when it comes to making NBA betting picks on the game today is an extensive list of player props.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Jordan Poole O/U 11.5 Points

Despite the fact that his minutes have been on a gradual decline throughout the NBA Finals, Warriors guard Jordan Poole has managed to score in double figures in each of the last four games. His lowest scoring output of the series to date actually came in Game 1. Oddly enough, that was the only time in The Finals that Poole cracked the 25-minute threshold for playing time. Game 5 saw him play only 14 minutes, seven less than he had in any of the first four games. Following the notion that both teams are likely to go to the bench less and less in the latter stages of the series, it would hardly be a shock if Poole fails to see 20 minutes of game action the rest of the season.

With uncertainty regarding how much Poole will see the floor in Game 6, bettors are justified in having doubts about his ability to surpass the NBA prop bets total of 11.5 points today. When one takes into consideration just how he has managed to score in double figures in each of the last four games, concerns about his ability to replicate those efforts tonight only grow. Twice in the last four games, he shot 50% from the field. In one of the games in which he failed to achieve that unsustainable clip, Poole managed to knock down five three-pointers. He has connected on multiple triples in three of the last four games overall. Of course, some might recall that a couple of those shots came in the form of buzzer-beating heaves that found nylon as well.

When it comes down to it, the likelihood of Poole hitting the same number of shots tonight as he has in the last four games is not great. It’s no surprise to find OddsShopper showing that the NBA player props market is heavily juiced to the under on Poole’s scoring prop of 11.5 for Game 6. In fact, one sportsbook even has the line set a full point lower at 10.5. Awesemo is quite confident that he stays under the NBA betting picks line today. His projection of 9.46 points yields a 65% win probability for the under on this prop. When paired with the optimal price point of -120, a 24% expected ROI valuation has been assigned to this wager.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Jordan Poole UNDER 11.5 Points

Jaylen Brown O/U 6.5 Rebounds

From an offensive standpoint, Game 5 of the NBA Finals was a rough one for Celtics star Jaylen Brown. He shot 0-5 from three-point range as part of an abysmal 5-18 shooting performance overall. Despite his offensive contributions being less than usual, Brown did still manage to make an impact in other ways, most notably on the glass. He matched his Game 3 effort in that category on Monday night by grabbing nine rebounds in total. Brown easily eclipsed his NBA player props rebounding line with that performance as well.

Fast-forward to Thursday and the NBA prop bets for Game 6 today once again list Brown’s rebounding total at 6.5. OddsShopper does indicate that the market is juiced to the over at all sportsbooks. Considering how Brown has been a regular contributor on the glass for the Celtics both in The Finals and throughout the entire postseason, it’s hard to bet against him rising to the occasion in tonight’s elimination game. He has successfully cleared the NBA betting picks line today on three occasions during this series. He has also finished with at least six rebounds in all five games and in nine of Boston’s last ten contests overall. Thus, even when he is coming up short of actually cashing tickets to the over, Brown is right there knocking on the doorstep of doing so.

Although Brown is a player who sees no shortage of minutes whenever he is available, his playing time has only increased as The Finals have dragged on. It’s hard to anticipate that trend reversing course tonight given that the Celtics have shortened their rotation as the stakes have risen. Brown played a series-high 44 minutes in Game 5 despite his shooting woes and should see plenty of time to make an impact on the boards again this evening. Awesemo’s projections are confident in his ability to do so. His prediction of 8.07 rebounds translates to a 70% probability that Brown exceeds the NBA player props line of 6.5. When coupled with the optimal -124 price displayed by OddsShopper, this prop is given a hefty ROI value of 26%.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Jaylen Brown OVER 6.5 Rebounds

Robert Williams III O/U 8.5 Rebounds

The big question all throughout the playoffs regarding Robert Williams III and his NBA player props has been the health of his surgically repaired knee. After being forced to miss several games and being limited in others, he has arguably been at his best during the NBA Finals. There were some doubts after he was visibly hobbled and limping around on the floor in Game 2. Since then, Williams has played 26-plus minutes in every game and made a huge impact at that.

Williams smashed his NBA prop bets rebounding total of 8.5 in both Games 3 and 4 in Boston. Both games saw him reach double figures with 10 and 12 boards, respectively. Although he fell just shy of the prop line in Game 5 on Monday, Williams still corralled eight boards while playing 30 minutes. Add a little extra pep from the Celtics faithful in TD Garden on Thursday and we very well could see Williams break down the double-digit rebounding barrier once again. Betting on him to go over the NBA betting picks total today becomes all the more appealing given that OddsShopper is listing an optimal price point of +110.

Given that Boston has predictably shortened its rotation as this series has gone on, playing time does not figure to be a concern for Williams tonight. Although he is still officially listed as day-to-day on the Warriors vs Celtics Game 6 injury report, he has certainly looked healthy the past couple of games. With the expectation that Williams will be on the floor plenty tonight, Awesemo’s projections have him tabbed to finish with 9.35 rebounds. Combine that with the phenomenal price on OddsShopper and the expected ROI v valuation for this over prediction is deemed to be 24%. It’s also worth noting that the +110 odds offer as much as 25 cents of market value over alternative listings.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Robert Williams III OVER 8.5 Rebounds

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