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Thursday, May 12 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Tyrese Maxey

Henry John



After a wild and unpredictable Wednesday in the NBA, two more playoff games are on deck for this evening. Today’s schedule includes a pair of Game 6 matchups. The first features the Philadelphia 76ers looking to stave off elimination at home against the Miami Heat. The Dallas Mavericks will try to do the same in the nightcap when they host the Phoenix Suns. For those looking to have some betting action on tonight’s playoff doubleheader, the NBA player props market is a great place to start. There are numerous NBA player prop bets that figure to be worthwhile plays today.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Bam Adebayo O/U 7.5 Rebounds

When the 76ers were without star center Joel Embiid in Games 1 and 2, Bam Adebayo dominated Philly on the boards. The Heat big man followed up a huge double-double outing in the series-opener with another nine rebounds in Game 2. Oddly enough, that nine-rebound effort was not enough for Adebayo to eclipse his NBA player props total on that night. Since Embiid returned in Game 3, Adebayo has not had more than seven boards in any of the three games played. His prop line has plummeted three full rebounds from Game 2 to now as a result.

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Despite the fact that Adebayo has been held in check since Embiid got involved in this Eastern Conference Semifinals series, the massive adjustment on his NBA prop bets total has to pique the interest of astute bettors. Relative to Adebayo’s season average of 10.1 rebounds per game, it is safe to say that this is a terrific buy-low opportunity. The matchup may be tough, but he is more than capable of surpassing this diminished prop total. OddsShopper seems to suggest that the betting market agrees with this sentiment. Prices are juiced to the over across all major sportsbooks.

Projecting Adebayo for 9.62 rebounds in Game 6, OddsShopper views this prop as one of the best values on the board today. Despite the cheapest offering being -130, OddsShopper indicates that this price does lend bettors up to 15 cents of value relative to other listings in the market. If Embiid (questionable on the Sixers’ injury report) is at all limited tonight, this over prediction becomes all the more promising. Along with a 74% win probability, Awesemo’s projection combined with the optimal odds produces a hefty 32% expected ROI.

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Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Bam Adebayo OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-130, BetMGM)

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Tyrese Maxey O/U 2.5 3-Pointers

Based on how Tyrese Maxey has shot from beyond the arc in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, no one should be surprised to see OddsShopper listing the odds juiced to the under on his prop tonight. Only once in the first five games against Miami has Maxey finished with more than two made 3-pointers. That came in Game 3 when he shot an unsustainable 5-for-6 from distance. Only one other time in this series has Maxey made more than a single 3-pointer.

Why has Maxey struggled so mightily to exceed the NBA player props line of 2.5 made 3-pointers? It is not as if he is a particularly poor shooter from long range. Maxey knocked down 42.7% of his 3-point attempts on the season. However, he has largely only taken between four and six attempts from beyond the arc in the playoffs. Given his prowess for driving to the rim, he is capable of earning higher percentage shots. This capability is even more pronounced in this series thanks to the Heat’s stingy 3-point defense.

On the season, opponents have only converted on 33.8% of shots from distance against Miami. That ranks as the best 3-point shooting defense in the NBA. Thus, it makes complete sense why OddsShopper and the betting market are in agreement that under is the play. While the cheapest price available does require bettors to lay -146 juice, OddsShopper does reveal that this actually is 14 cents cheaper than other listings. Juice and all, OddsShopper gives this under prediction a solid 22% expected ROI. Maxey projects to finish with 1.93 3-pointers, which results in a confident win probability of 72%.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Tyrese Maxey UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers (-146, FanDuel)

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Dorian Finney-Smith O/U 11.5 Points

Only Luka Doncic outscored Dorian Finney-Smith for the Mavericks in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Finney-Smith caught fire from distance, finishing 8-of-12 from 3-point range for 24 points in the Mavericks’ victory. By no means should bettors bank on he replicating that white-hot shooting display. However, Finney-Smith will most certainly provide a greater impact offensively than he did on the road in Game 5 when he scored just eight points. Based on how he has performed in this series and in the playoffs overall, OddsShopper deems an over bet on the NBA player props line of 11.5 points to be worthwhile.

On the full season, Finney-Smith averaged 11 points for Dallas. So far in the NBA Playoffs, he has largely been out-scoring his per-game average. Going all the way back to Game 3 of the Mavericks’ First Round series against Utah, Finney-Smith has scored 13 points or more in six-of-nine games. One of the three in which he fell short saw him score exactly 11 points. In addition, Finney-Smith has exceeded the NBA prop bets total in each of the Mavericks’ last three home games. Given how well the supporting cast players for both the Mavericks and Suns have played at home in this series, it is hard to bet against that theme continuing tonight.

The other component that makes this an attractive NBA prop bets pick today is that Finney-Smith does have the ability to score in other ways than spot-up 3-pointers. OddsShopper shows that most of the betting market is in fact tilted towards the over on this prop bet. The juice varies between sportsbooks to the point that -115 odds yield a 10-cent advantage over the prices at other shops. When the optimal odds are combined with Awesemo’s projection of 13.01 points, the over has a 60% expected ROI.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Dorian Finney-Smith OVER 11.5 Points (-115, Caesars)

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