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FREE MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/14

Tyler Schmidt

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We’ll hit an MLB parlay soon, maybe tonight is the night? We have a Thursday 10x Parlay special with four strikeout props. The over on each strikeout prop is where we are looking tonight, as there are three favorites and only one underdog. This parlay has a 15% chance of hitting according to Stokastic’s projections — pretty strong for a 10x return. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.


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MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/14

Tyler Anderson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)

The Dodgers are rolling right now, having won 12 of their last 14 games as they continue to lead the National League with a record of 57-30. Tyler Anderson is cruising, with a record of 9-1 in 14 starts and a career-best 3.15 ERA. After a few disappointing years under a 20% strikeout rate, Anderson has a 21.1% rate this season. He also has a career-best 1.03 WHIP while allowing only a .229 batting average. It has been an incredible year for Anderson, who draws a matchup against the Cardinals as a -159 favorite with the Cardinals only implied for 4.1 runs. OddsShopper’s MLB model has Anderson projected for 4.8 strikeouts and a 71% xWin rate. This prop is the biggest favorite in the parlay by far.

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Sonny Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

In his first season with the Twins, Sonny Gray may have finally found a home. He has a career-best 1.06 WHIP and a 3.03 ERA. Gray has also done a great job of keeping the ball in the yard, with a 0.76 HR/9 and just a 6.0% barrel rate allowed. Where he has taken a little bit of a dip is with his strikeouts, as his rate has fallen to 22.6% from an average of 28.9% over his last three seasons. The matchup against the White Sox is a little tricky, as they only have a team strikeout rate of 20.6%, which ranks 23rd in the league. However, their lack of power and scoring sets up great for Gray, who has struggled pitching deep into games. OddsShopper’s MLB model has Gray projected for 5.4 strikeouts tonight and a 62% xWin rate.


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Kyle Wright Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Similar to Gray, Kyle Wright also has a 5.4 strikeout prediction in his matchup against the Nationals. Wright has been in and out of the major and minor leagues throughout his career with the Braves, but his 10-4 record and 2.97 ERA this season will keep him around much longer. A very impressive 24.5% strikeout rate has helped Wright finish innings, as he has a 77.9% left-on-base percentage. The most difficult part about this strikeout prop is the matchup against the Nationals. They rank 27th in both home runs and runs scored, but they have a 19.1% strikeout rate, which is the second best in the league. Regardless of the matchup, it is tough to not take this over when Wright has recorded five or more strikeouts in 12 of his 17 starts.


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Keegan Thompson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130)

The only underdog prop bet in this parlay is Keegan Thompson over 4.5 strikeouts. This prop makes the 10x parlay all possible, which is why this bet is extremely important. The Cubs are reeling right now, losers of six straight games as they open up their series against the Mets tonight. In his second season in the big leagues, Thompson leads the Cubs with seven wins and has a 3.04 ERA. Thompson has also been a solid strikeout pitcher, as he has a 23.4% rate this season. The matchup against the Mets isn’t ideal, but they only have a 4.1 implied run total, which is showing respect to Thompson. Being the only underdog on this parlay, this will be a tough prop to win, but the xWin is 55%.

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