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FREE MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/29

Tyler Schmidt



This MLB 13-game slate is a perfect way to start the weekend. Who’s ready to party with up to FIVE Strikeout Prop bets that’ll give you the best chance to win based on Stokastic’s simulations? The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community, and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.

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MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/29

Lance Lynn O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | Get $200 FREE (ENDING SOON)

Leading off this prop party parlay is Lance Lynn in a home matchup against the Athletics. In his second season with the White Sox, veteran right-hander Lynn has really struggled. He has a career-worst 6.43 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Lynn’s strikeout rate has also dropped to 21.8%, which is the lowest since his 2017 season. Even though his strikeout rate is down, so is his walk rate to 5.3%, which is a positive for Lynn. This matchup is also a positive, as the Athletics have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the league. Even with that, getting to seven strikeouts seems like a stretch. In his eight starts this season, Lynn has only reached that threshold once. Stokastic’s MLB Model has this as a 75% xWin rate, which still feels too low. It’s a great matchup for strikeouts, but Lynn isn’t the same pitcher that he used to be.

Best MLB Pick Today: Lance Lynn UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)

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Shane Bieber O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | Get $200 FREE (ENDING SOON)

Guardians ace Shane Bieber has a losing record for the first time in his career, and he is once again an underdog in a road matchup against the Rays. Bieber’s strikeout rate has also dropped to 24.3%, which is tied for the lowest in his career. Despite that, he leads the Guardians with 110 total strikeouts. The under for Bieber’s strikeouts at this line has been a strong bet, as he has thrown seven or less strikeouts in 15 of his 18 starts this season, which is good for an 83.3% hit rate for the under. Stokastic projects Bieber for only 6.3 strikeouts tonight, well below this line. The Rays have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the league, giving a little reason for concern. However, it is very tough to go against this pick with how frequently the under has been hitting. It’s a little risky given the upside in Bieber, but worth the risk.

Best MLB Pick Today: Shane Bieber UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-160)

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Brayan Bello O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | Get $200 FREE (ENDING SOON)

Rookie Brayan Bello is projected to come in as the long reliever after Austin Davis opens the game. Taking a long reliever is always a little bit risky, especially considering this play is on the over for his strikeout props. In his three starts this season, it has been a rough go for Bello, who has a 10.50 ERA. He has allowed 14 earned runs in only 12 innings. Bello has pitched exactly four innings in each of his previous three starts, so expect the same, if not more, if he is actually pitching well. Getting to four strikeouts seems a little tough, but Stokastic’s MLB Model has Bello projected for 4.8 tonight. Trust the numbers on this prop bet. It helps that the Brewers have a top-10 strikeout rate as a team coming into tonight, but they are implied for 5.2 runs. Still, this is a good strikeout spot for Bello.

Best MLB Pick Today: Brayan Bello OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)

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Robbie Ray O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | Get $200 FREE (ENDING SOON)

Veteran southpaw Robbie Ray has been solid in his first season with the Mariners. This strikeout prop is the biggest favorite in this parlay, as Ray leads the Rays in strikeouts with 136. Ray has gone over this prop in six of his last seven games, with three of those games reaching double digits. His 27.9% strikeout rate continues to be very strong. However, the Astros have been the Mariners’ kryptonite. They have won each of their last four games and have a 10-6 record against them this season. Not only that, but the Astros have the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league. Ray has also struggled in this matchup this season. In eight innings against the Astros, Ray has allowed nine earned runs and five home runs while striking out only four. This is all a matter of which side is more trustworthy, and the overall numbers point to the Ray side for this one.

Best MLB Pick Today: Robbie Ray OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-165)

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Martin Perez O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | Get $200 FREE (ENDING SOON)

After spending his first seven years with the Rangers, Martin Perez is back in the blue and red and is having his best season in his career. Perez has a career-best 2.59 ERA and an 8-2 record. He leads the team in both categories. The best part is Perez has a 20.8% strikeout rate, which is the highest in his career and his first time reaching over 20%. Perez will draw a fantastic matchup against the Angels, who have the highest strikeout rate in the league (26.3%). They were shut out last night and only had five hits. Even with the career-best numbers and great matchup, getting to six strikeouts may seem like a stretch for a pitcher with just over a 20% strikeout rate. Stokastic projects Perez to get 5.6 strikeouts, and he has actually captured six or more strikeouts in four of his last six starts. This is the only prop in this parlay that is a huge underdog, so it is a must-add for a prop party Friday evening.

Best MLB Pick Today: Martin Perez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)

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