With the MLB Trade Deadline in the rear-view mirror, it is time for the home stretch. Today features a split slate with six games early and five games this evening. Today’s parlay is a Dog Days Parlay for the early slate because everyone loves an underdog. Though it’s rare, underdogs eventually have their day, and when they do, the payouts are oh so nice. Here are Stokastic’s best bets for underdogs if you like to fade the favs and cheer for the upset at high odds. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/3
Shane Bieber O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
After several strong seasons, it is weird to see Shane Bieber take a little bit of a step back in terms of his pitching production. Bieber currently has a 5-6 record, which is his first losing season in his career. His strikeout rate has also dipped considerably down to 24.6%. While still a very solid mark, Bieber was well above 30% in his previous three seasons. A matchup with the Diamondbacks is a middle of the road strikeout spot and they are only implied for 3.4 runs, which is the second lowest in the early slate. Capturing seven or more strikeouts has only happened for Bieber twice in his last six starts and one of which was a complete game where he only allowed three hits. Taking an under strikeout prop on such a prolific pitcher can be risky, but the stats back it up and Stokastic projects only 5.9 strikeouts for Bieber tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Shane Bieber UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
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Martin Perez O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Veteran southpaw Martin Perez is having the best season in his career at the age of 31. Through 20 starts this season, Perez has a 9-2 record with a career-best 2.52 ERA and a 20.9% strikeout rate. Even though that strikeout rate isn’t all that high, it is the highest mark and the first time Perez has had a season over 20% in his career. A home matchup with the Orioles who were very much sellers at the trade deadline awaits him this afternoon. As a team, the Orioles rank 10th in strikeout rate so this matchup is pretty juicy. This is also what seems like a perfect line as Perez has hit exactly five or six strikeouts in 12 of his 20 starts this season. Stokastic’s MLB Model has Perez projected for 5.3 strikeouts, which is just under this prop line. Taking the gamble on the under seems worth it in this Dog Days Parlay to juice the odds.
Best MLB Pick Today: Martin Perez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Tyler Alexander O/U 2.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The last pitcher in this parlay on the early slate is Tigers left-hander Tyler Alexander. This will only be Alexander’s sixth start this season even though he has appeared in 15 total games. This line feels outrageous for a starting pitcher. However, through his 15 appearances and his five starts, Alexander has only one game where he had three or more strikeouts. That came in his first appearance of the season where he recorded four strikeouts, so this feels like a strong under bet even with the line set at 2.5 today. Alexander has a career-low 12.0% strikeout rate as he goes on the road to take on a below-average strikeout rate team in the Minnesota Twins. What also helps this under is Alexander likely won’t pitch all that deep into this game. He has gone over 40 pitches just once since April. Despite the low line, feel comfortable in this under.
Best MLB Pick Today: Tyler Alexander UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts (+115)
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