Tonight’s two-game slate in the NBA playoffs could go a long way in determining which teams are going to move on and play in the Conference Finals. The East features the Miami Heat hosting the Philadelphia 76ers with the series tied at two, and it is the same story out West with the Dallas Mavericks traveling to Phoenix to face the Suns. Their series is tied at two as well, and both games have a spread under 7 points, leaving some intriguing pathways to wander down in the NBA betting markets, especially with some NBA picks and parlays today.
Best NBA Picks and Parlays Tonight
Joel Embiid O/U 25.5 Points
This NBA bet was featured in this article for Game 4 when Joel Embiid scored 24 points, and he is right back here with a 67% expected win rate from OddsShopper for his prop. While Embiid would have missed this number in Game 3, it is important to realize that he did not score a single point in the entire fourth quarter. That will not happen very often, and he was able to play 38 minutes while shooting 7-for-13 from the field. It was also encouraging to see Embiid get to the free-throw line 13 times (making nine) since he averaged nearly 11 attempts during the regular season. The scoring prowess may not be the same since Embiid is playing through an injury to a ligament in his thumb and a fractured orbital bone, but his line is typically set at least 4 points higher. Among the teams that remain, the Heat are allowing the third-most points in the post-up game, and Embiid is still scoring 5.4 points per game in that play type.
If you are concerned about Embiid’s health and his points wager seems too risky, BetMGM is giving away FREE money! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the 76ers or the Heat hit just one 3-pointer tonight.
Betting Pick for NBA Parlays: Joel Embiid Player Prop Pick | OVER 25.5 points
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Chris Paul O/U 8.5 Assists
If these two wagers hit, the Awesemo Parlay Calculator says they would net a return of +250 and Chris Paul is at an expected win rate of 61% for his prop. Paul is likely happy to be back in Phoenix since he had one of his worst games of the playoffs in Game 4, as he had to deal with off-court issues with his family and then fouled out in just 23 minutes. What is interesting is, in those 23 minutes, Paul made 40 passes, racked up 13 potential assists and managed seven assists. That was much more in line with what Paul did all season since he averaged over 10 assists per game. The first few games of this series have driven Paul’s assist prop down since he has not been over eight in any other game. Even with a dip in his assists on the surface, Paul has still averaged 11.3 potential assists in this series and is making the same number of passes he did during the regular season. This game is borderline must-win for the Suns, and Paul should be ready to bounce back from Game 4.
Betting Pick for NBA Parlays: Chris Paul Player Prop Pick | OVER 8.5 assists
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